Staying up late for some hoops before tomorrow’s Big Dance kicks off? There’s a late-night game between the Utah Valley Wolverines (25-9, 15-1 WAC) and the San Francisco Dons (24-9, 13-5 WCC) in the NIT.
The Wolverines have been red-hot but this represents a sizable step-up in competition.
See why I’m supporting the home team with my Utah Valley vs. San Francisco predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 19.
Who will win Utah Valley vs San Francisco?
San Francisco will win because they’re challenging to beat at home. The Dons are technically 16-1 at home, but the lone loss was against Gonzaga at the Chase Center, which should really be considered a neutral court. They’re still unbeaten at the Sobrato Center. Utah Valley had a great year in the WAC, but that’s an underwhelming conference, and the Wolverines weren’t quite as successful on the road (10-6) compared to their unblemished home record (12-0).
Utah Valley vs San Francisco prediction
My best bet: San Francisco -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Utah Valley Wolverines were a sports bettor’s dream in WAC play, going 15-1 straight up and 11-4-1 ATS in regular season conference play and then 2-1 straight up and ATS in the conference tournament.
How much credence should we give that run when considering the relative weakness of the WAC? The conference ranks 22nd (out of 31) in RPI, compared to 10th for the WCC — so there’s a sizable gap in competition.
The Wolverines didn’t look so pretty against non-conference opponents (5-7 ATS) and were usually handled with relative ease by the better teams they played. For example, they lost to James Madison, Stanford, North Dakota State, and Samford by an average of 14.8 ppg. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row, either, but it’s still a step up from the WAC.
The San Francisco Dons represent the toughest challenge to date, checking in at 54th in BartTorvik since February 1. That’s 28 spots better than Grand Canyon, the WAC champs who toppled Utah Valley by 18 at home and seven on a neutral (although the Wolverines did topple the Antelopes in Orem).
The Wolverines aren’t the same team outside of Utah, checking in at 333rd in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric while going 7-9 ATS on the road. Considering they were a perfect 9-0-1 ATS in Orem, the home/away splits do seem to matter with Todd Phillips’ team.
The Dons have a go-to scorer in Malik Thomas (19.3 ppg) and surround him with loads of length, athleticism, and defense (25th in adjusted efficiency since February 1). Losing second-leading scorer and leading assist-man Marcus Williams would be a death sentence for most teams, but this is a very well-coached team under Chris Gerlufsen that has responded well since the surprising announcement after the regular season that their star guard would be ineligible until further notice.
Sophomore guard Ryan Beasley looked like a strong emerging talent in the WCC Championship in Williams’ stead, playing through a bum ankle to average 21 points, 4 assists, and 2 steals per game. Utah Valley’s defense numbers look good, but those were accrued against underwhelming competition. The Dons bring more to the table on that end of the court and have been playing superb defense, so I’ll take them to cover the spread at home.
Utah Valley vs San Francisco same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 68.5 in the First Half
Under 146.5
San Francisco -7.5
According to the analytics, San Francisco’s defense will be the strongest unit on the court. One would think that Gerlufsen leans into this advantage at home against an opponent from a lesser conference.
The loss of Williams hasn’t shown up in the box score yet as the Dons went 2-0 O/U in the WCC Championship. Still, those were against two offense-first teams (Washington State and Gonzaga) with a different style of play than Utah Valley. Also, one has to believe that Williams’ absence will still negatively affect the Dons on the offensive end.
The Wolverines rely on their defense, ranking 91st in adjusted efficiency on that end compared to 177th on offense. That’s led to some low-scoring starts as they’ve cashed the First Half Under in 19 of their last 30 games. San Francisco has trended the same way, going Under the First Half Total in 19 of its last 32 games.
Utah Valley usually tends to pick up the scoring in the second half, but I’m betting that trend discontinues in a step-up in competition. The Dons are a top-25 over the last month and are 0-3 O/U in their last three games at the Sobrato Center.
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Utah Valley vs San Francisco odds
Utah Valley vs San Francisco live odds
Utah Valley vs San Francisco opening odds
- Spread: Utah Valley +8.5 (-110) | San Francisco -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Utah Valley +300 | San Francisco -380
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 (-110) | Under 145.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Utah Valley vs San Francisco betting trend to know
San Francisco is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games lined within 10 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah Valley vs. San Francisco.
How to watch Utah Valley vs San Francisco
| Location | War Memorial at the Sobrato Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Utah Valley vs San Francisco key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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