The No. 8 Arizona Wildcats looks to avenge an early loss as it hosts the Utah Utes.
The Utes got the best of the first matchup back on December 1 by a final score of 81-66. Winners of five of the last seven, they’ll need to stay hot to clinch an NCAA Tournament berth.
Arizona likely needs to win out to have a chance at the Pac-12 regular season championship, will the Wildcats start by getting revenge against the Utes?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Utah and Arizona on Thursday, February 16 to find out.
Utah vs Arizona best odds
Utah vs Arizona picks and predictions
The first time Arizona played Utah, the Utes pulled away for an 81-66 win at home. Big men Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo still found success with 42 combined points, but the rest of the team struggled. Starters Kerr Kriisa (1-for-9), Courtney Ramey (4-for-13), and Pelle Larsson (0-for-5) all struggled mightily from the field — combining to shoot just 18.5%.
The Wildcats check in at 13th overall in KenPom, ranking 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 44th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Tubelis has carried a lot of the load this season, averaging 20.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game as one of the nation’s most productive players. Ballo is second in both categories with 14.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game.
Utah ranks 47th in KenPom — 85th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Utes are just 1-5 in Quad 1 games, with the first Arizona game being the lone victory.
Where does that leave us for Thrusday’s matchup?
Blindly playing the Under in Utah games would have been a profitable venture up to this point. The Utes are 17-9 to the Under on the season, including four straight cashes on the road. They have tended to play low-scoring games away from home against tough opposition, going 7-0 to the Under in their last seven against a team with a home winning percentage above .600.
Most teams lack the size to match up with Arizona’s bigs, but Utah has the two Carlson brothers down low to provide resistance. The Utes have defended the rim well this season, ranking 14th in near-proximity field goal defense per Haslametrics.
Arizona has been trending toward the Under at home, going 5-1 to the Under in its last six games at the McKale Center.
Give me the Under.
My best bet: Under 147.5 (-110 at BetRivers)
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Utah vs Arizona spread analysis
The spread currently resides between Arizona -9.5 and -10.5 depending on the book, with -10 being the most widely-available line in the market.
Utah is 14-12 ATS this season but has typically struggled when facing decent competition, going 2-7 ATS in its last nine games against teams with a winning straight up record.
The Utes are led by seven-footer Branden Carlson, who averages 16.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game. Gabe Madsen is second on the team with 11.7 ppg, but he’s missed the last two games with an injury and will likely remain sidelined until March.
Losing him is a big blow as this team is still searching for impact secondary and tertiary scorers to emerge — Lazar Stefanovic is the only other player in double figures at 10.4 ppg, and depth is now a concern.
Arizona is 12-13-1 ATS this season. The Wildcats have been dominant at the McKale Center with a 13-1 straight up record (7-6-1 ATS). Tommy Llyod’s squad has been a covering machine at home lately, going 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.
I side with the team bent on revenge and playing very well at home. Concerns about depth are not a good sign when facing a team that ranks eighth in adjusted tempo.
Utah vs Arizona Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 147.5 and has moved to 146.5 at some locations, although 147.5 is still available at current. I would play the Under down to 145.5.
Utah doesn’t light the world on fire offensively, averaging 70.5 ppg while shooting 44.4% from the field (194th nationally). It doesn't stand out in any one area, shooting 34.8% from 3-point range (167th) and 71.5% from the charity stripe (182nd).
Arizona holds the advantage in both of those shooting categories defensively, ranking 43rd in field goal defense (40.9%) and 116th in 3-point defense (32.6%). Expecting the Utes to score 81 points again like in the first matchup may not be wise.
Arizona’s offense is elite, averaging 83.2 ppg on 48.8% from the field (12th) and 36.8% from behind the arc (53rd). The Wildcats face a tough task in solving a Utah defense that has been supremely effective. The Utes surrender just 61.8 ppg and are Top 10 in both field goal defense (fourth nationally at 38%) and 3-point defense (sixth at 28.2%).
Arizona’s offense nearly always manages a way to find its points, but finding 147.5 combined will be a tall order on Thursday night.
Utah vs Arizona betting trend to know
Utah is 4-0 to the Under in its last four road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah vs. Arizona.
Utah vs Arizona game info
Location: | McKale Center, Tucscon, AZ |
Date: | Thursday, February 16, 2023 |
Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
TV: | Pac-12 Network |