The second semifinal game of the 2023 SEC Tournament in Nashville, TN will see the 2-seed Texas A&M Aggies face off with the 6th-seeded Vanderbilt Commodores in Bridgestone Arena on Saturday afternoon.
Texas A&M just continues to take care of business in the SEC with another tough win, beating Arkansas on Friday night, 67-61. The Aggies beat Vanderbilt 72-66 in their lone matchup in the regular season. Vanderbilt just pulled off the biggest upset of the tournament so far beating Kentucky on Friday night, 80-73. The Commodores have climbed back into the bubble for an NCAA Tournament berth.
Will Vandy pull off another upset and get into the NCAA Tournament? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt on Saturday, March 11 to find out.
Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M best odds
Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M picks and predictions
Vanderbilt deserves serious consideration for an NCAA Tournament at large bid regardless of how this game goes for the Commodores. However, another win should put all doubt out the window. They‘re playing better than just about any team in the SEC right now.
The Commodores could have been put away multiple times in the first half against Kentucky in a basic home game for the Cats, despite being in Vandy’s home city. However, Vanderbilt consistently fought back and stayed in the game until they were able to finally take control and lead the entire second half. Their resilience was impressive.
Sometimes in these conference tournaments, certain players can start to stand out and play better than they have throughout the season. That is the case for Vandy point guard Ezra Manjon. He absolutely balled out against Kentucky, shooting 8-11 from the field and 7-8 from the free-throw line to finish with 25 points.
That follows another impressive game against LSU: Manjon shot 7-12 from the field and finished with 17 points. He’s now 15-23 shooting from the field and 3-3 from downtown in the SEC Tournament. He was 3-26 from downtown in the regular season and averaged 9.3 points per game.
In the regular season matchup, Manjon shot 1-7 from the field and Vanderbilt only had 11 free-throw attempts to Texas A&M’s 36. That was quite the anomaly for Vanderbilt, who attempts 19.1 free throws per game and only allows 18.8. Against Kentucky, Vandy shot 20 free throws and allowed the same number.
Sometimes in March, you just must ride the hot hand. And that’s what I’m doing with Vanderbilt here. Manjon and the Commodores will continue their hot streak and advance to the SEC finals, clinching their berth into the NCAA Tournament.
My best bet: Vanderbilt moneyline (+190 at bet365)
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Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M spread analysis
Vanderbilt already played Texas A&M without Liam Robbins this season, so there should be no surprises here. Vandy only scored 66 points in that game, but is playing much better offensively of late, averaging 78.5 points per game in two SEC Tournament games.
Texas A&M is a very good defense, but it struggles with allowing threes and free throws. That’s perfect for a Vandy team that’s in this spot right now because of their shooting from both spots: 16-47 (34.0%) from three and 37-50 (74.0%) from the free-throw line in the tournament thus far.
The Commodores are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 neutral site games and 6-0 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning straight-up record. They’re also 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win and 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
Vanderbilt has won 10 of its last 11 games straight up. It already avenged its only loss in that time frame and now they will look to be avenging one that happened two games before the start of this run. I like its chances based on the current level of play.
Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M Over/Under analysis
The previous matchup between these two programs went Under the total of 139.5 with 138 total points scored. However, in this tournament, Vanderbilt’s two games have totaled 145 and 153 points. The one game played by Texas A&M finished with 128 total points.
The Over is 5-1-1 in the Commodores’ last seven neutral site games and 5-1 in their last six overall. It’s also 4-1 in the Commodores’ last five games following a straight-up win and 25-10 in their last 35 games following an ATS win. The current Vandy squad lends towards these trends.
If this game was played in the regular season, I may lean towards the Under. However, the way Vandy is playing right now, they are unlikely to quit scoring anytime soon. Vanderbilt ranks 23rd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranking. I would lean towards the Over here.
Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
The Commodores are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. Texas A&M.
Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M game info
| Conference: | SEC Semifinals |
| Location: | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, March 11, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
