The Capital City Classic tips off on Friday, with the Richmond Spiders hosting the VCU Rams in NCAA basketball action. The Rams are in a three-way tie atop the Atlantic 10 standings with a 5-1 record, while the Spiders are just behind at 4-2.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close, low-scoring contest in this rivalry showdown with college basketball betting odds installing the Rams as slim 1.5-point road favorites before flipping and favoring the Spiders at -1.5.
Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for VCU vs. Richmond on January 20.
VCU vs Richmond best odds
VCU vs Richmond picks and predictions
The Rams have looked like the better offensive team in conference play, but they've also faced some of the worst defensive teams in the A-10, like UMass and Loyola.
When it comes to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rating, there isn't much separating these teams, with VCU ranked 174th and Richmond 180th.
Overall offensive efficiency over the whole season tells a similar story, as the Spiders rank 140th in the country with 101.6 points per 100 possessions while the Rams sit at 178th (99.6).
With offense practically a wash between these squads, this game will come down to defense and the always-important home-court advantage. In this case, Richmond has the edge in both areas.
The Spiders have been locking down foes in A-10 play and have gone 9-1 straight up at home this season. They also have the best player on either side in senior Tyler Burton, who leads the school with 19.6 ppg and 7.8 rpg. Give me the home side on the short spread.
My best bet: Richmond -1 (-110 at bet365)
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VCU vs Richmond spread analysis
VCU is red-hot, having won nine of its last 10 games and going 6-1-1 against the spread in its previous eight contests. The Rams are coming off an 83-55 beatdown of Massachusetts, where they shot 53% from the floor and held the Minutemen to just 29% shooting.
They've been filling up the hoop in A-10 play, ranking second in the conference with 77.2 ppg on 50.1% shooting. They've been solid on the other end of the floor as well, allowing 66.5 ppg on 44.2% shooting.
VCU was also impressive during its non-conference schedule. The Rams knocked off Pittsburgh and Vanderbilt and barely lost to an Arizona State team that's 15-3 and currently in second place in the Pac-12. They possess a deep squad with all five starters averaging over 9.0 ppg, led by former Michigan Wolverine Brandon Johns Jr. (12.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 54.3 FG%).
Richmond is 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in its last five games and is fresh off a 64-57 victory against Rhode Island. The Spiders held Rhode Island to just 40.6% shooting from 2-point range, but they didn't look great on offense either and went just 4-19 from beyond the arc.
That's been a theme for Richmond lately, with the Spiders averaging just 65.7 ppg on 42.6% shooting during conference play but also limiting foes to 63.8 ppg on 40.8 FG%.
Richmond's offense is heavily reliant on Burton, as freshman guard Jason Nelson is the only other player averaging more than 9.0 ppg.
VCU vs Richmond Over/Under analysis
Part of the reason why the Rams score more is that they play at an above-average tempo, while the Spiders proceed at a sluggish pace and rank just 306th in the country in average length of possession (18.7 seconds).
That has led to some very low-scoring games for the Spiders, and the Under has gone 14-5 in their last 19 games at home.
Both of these teams have looked strong defensively over their last three games, with the Rams allowing 64.2 on 42.2 FG% and the Spiders limiting foes to 64.5 ppg on 40.7 FG%.
The Spiders do an excellent job of rotating and guarding shooters, but they don't block many shots or force many turnovers.
The Rams do an excellent job of pressuring ball handlers and rank fifth in the country in opponent turnover rate (24.8%). However, they also rank outside the Top 300 in turnover rate and need to do a better job of taking care of the ball.
VCU vs Richmond betting trend to know
The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two rivals. Find more College basketball betting trends for VCU vs. VCU.
VCU vs Richmond game info
| Location: | Robins Center, Richmond, VA |
| Date: | Friday, January 20, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
