With a win today, the Baylor Bears will be back in the No. 1 spot in college basketball. With Purdue dropping a road game to Rutgers, Baylor just has to get a win against Villanova at home.
In the Big East-Big 12 Challenge, it’s not going to be the easiest of tasks. Baylor is undefeated on the season with big wins against Michigan State, VCU, Arizona State, and Stanford. Only Michigan State was a Top-20 victory for Baylor.
Meanwhile, the Villanova Wildcats have lost two games this season to two of the best programs in college basketball this season. The Wildcats are 7-2 on the year with losses to UCLA and Purdue. The best win for Villanova came against Tennessee, who is currently a Top 10 team.
On the year, Villanova is 1-2 against Top 10 teams this season. But ultimately, that should mean that Villanova will be prepared for another Top 10 team today, right? Here are our picks and predictions for an ABC game between the Villanova Wildcats and Baylor Bears.
Villanova vs Baylor odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Baylor Bears opened as a 5-point favorite but are currently as low as -3.5 at some outlets. Most outlets are carrying a -4.5 at this time for Baylor. The total opened at 138.5 and hasn’t really moved since. Some outlets are carrying a 139, so other books could potentially follow with a 139 as well.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Villanova vs Baylor predictions
Predictions made on 12/12/2021 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Villanova vs Baylor game info
• Location: Ferrell Center, Waco, Texas
• Date: Sunday, December 12, 2021
• Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Villanova at Baylor betting preview
Injuries
Villanova: Bryan Antoine G (Out).
Baylor: Langston Love G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Baylor Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Villanova vs. Baylor.
Villanova vs Baylor picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Villanova has been tested a little bit more this year. The Wildcats are already playing their fourth Top 10 opponent this season. So you can expect Villanova to be ready for the test.
However, Baylor is ultimately the best team in the nation right now. If rankings were given out every single day, Baylor would be ranked in the No. 1 spot. The Bears are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 54.6% while earning 41.2% offensive rebounds on the season.
The Bears don’t get to the line very often but dominate the glass for easy second-chance points. Baylor currently shoots 34.7% from downtown and 56.1% from inside the arc. But the Bears have struggled from the line, only hitting 65.6% of foul shots.
Villanova’s defense won’t hold Baylor off the glass too well. The Wildcats are an average defense that just kind of do everything at a solid rate. Villanova is holding teams to a 48% effective field goal percentage while limiting fouls shots when it comes to free throws attempted to field goals attempted ratio.
The Wildcats win their games on the offensive end. Villanova is shooting a 54.4% effective field goal percentage while limiting turnovers to 13.3% on the season. It’s going to be tough to limit turnovers against a Baylor team that has averaged 28.2% turnovers per game.
I’d like to predict that Villanova turns the ball over more than 13% of the time but less than 28.2% of the time in this game. That’s reasonable. Just like Baylor, Villanova struggles to get to the line but when the Wildcats do, they shoot 78.4%.
Realistically, Baylor’s defense can hold off Villanova’s offense but I’m not sure I can say the same about Villanova holding off Baylor’s offense, especially on the glass and inside the arc.
I’ll grab Baylor -3.5 in this spot. Shop around, this number is out there!
Prediction: Baylor -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Villanova and Baylor have two incredible offenses. Villanova is fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency while Baylor is fifth in the nation in that same category. While I do believe Baylor has success defending Villanova, the Wildcats will shoot a hefty amount of three’s and have hit 39.2% on the season.
If Baylor can force some turnovers against Villanova, the Bears will have some fastbreak points to help the total go Over.
Prediction: Over 138.5 (-110)
Best bet
I like Baylor at any number in this game. The Bears are the more balanced team and don’t specifically rely on the three-point ball. If Baylor is able to force a high number of turnovers against Villanova while dominating the glass, the Baylor Bears will more than likely cover this game.
The Wildcats also don’t have much depth off the bench and that will hurt if Baylor is able to draw fouls quickly in this game.
So, give me Baylor -3.5 at home today as my best bet.
Pick: Baylor -3.5 (-110)
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