Villanova vs Boston College Odds, Picks and Predictions: Second-Chance Points Cost Wildcats

Two disappointments meet in New Jersey this evening as Villanova and Boston College square off. 

Head coach Kyle Neptune has had an up-and-down first season with the Wildcats but as of late, they have found their stride. They arrive at this matchup off of two-straight wins over Oklahoma and Pennsylvania. 

Boston College has shown some gradual improvement over a season ago, but it would have hoped to arrive here with a couple more wins than it has. Instead, the Eagles come into this matchup from three straight losses, including a heartbreaker to New Hampshire a few days ago.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Villanova vs. Boston College.

Villanova vs Boston College best odds

Villanova vs Boston College picks and predictions

Villanova is 2-7 ATS on the year, and if you've watched it, it makes sense. 

The Wildcats have an effective offense that works deep into the shot clock to find open shooters, however, on the other end, they are defending poorly. They’re 139th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency and that, coupled with meager possessions, is why they are covering few games. I like Boston College to do enough to cover today.

While Villanova is noticeably better as a spot-up shooting team, Boston College is due for some positive shot regression. According to ShotQuality, its record is one game worse than it should be based on the quality of shots it's taken. The Eagles will likely get that positive regression here, given how many open looks they'll get. That turns a usual advantage for the Wildcats into something closer to a wash. 

Boston College should also be able to create a fair amount of second-chance points. TJ Bickerstaff and Devin McGlockton have done an excellent job on the offensive backboard. McGlockton, in particular, is in the Top-25 percentile in put-back scoring. 

Containing him on the glass could be an issue for Villanova. The Wildcats rank 300th in the country in rebounding percentage, which is not just bad — it's awful. Boston College is well-poised to take advantage of this as it has a rebounding rate closer to the national average.

This looks like a low-possession, grinding, ugly game. Boston College has been up and down in these games, but it has played more of them than its opponents. In these games, you can’t allow second-chance points, and Villanova is likely to do that. 

At the end of the day, we'll see too little scoring for a double-digit number to be covered. 

My best bet: Boston College +10 (-110 at FanDuel)

Villanova vs Boston College spread analysis

I spoke about it above, but it bears repeating that Boston College's prowess on the glass looms large here. Villanova's defense has been so bad that it can't afford to give up many second-chance opportunities, but it seems it will do it here. 

These two teams have seen a good deal of each other over the last few seasons. In those meetings, the underdog is 4-1 ATS over the previous five. 

Villanova vs Boston College Over/Under analysis

If you've read most of the handicap, you know we have to lean to the Under here.

Both of these teams want to play low-possession games, and both are at their most comfortable when doing so. So, when projecting this out, I got 129.5 on the low end and 133.5 on the high end. Obviously, based on those numbers, there isn't much value here, but my handicap says this could be ugly.

These two teams, trend-wise, will see a clash of styles on the total. Villanova's last four neutral site games have all gone Over, while five of Boston College’s previous seven games after a loss have gone Under. 

We're leaning toward the Under, but there may be a barrage of scoring at some point in this game that gives you a better number. 

Villanova vs Boston College betting trend to know

The underdog is 4-1 ATS over the last five meetings between these two teams. Find more College basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. Boston College.

Villanova vs Boston College game info

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