The Butler Bulldogs have lost four straight games and will now finish out the regular season with the toughest game of the final five against the Villanova Wildcats.
Butler has never been easy to beat at home. Providence needed overtime to defeat Butler, 71-70 and Marquette found out the hard way, losing its road game to Butler, 85-79.
But the Wildcats have won six of their last seven games and have road wins over Providence and St. John’s during that span.
Will Butler pull off a huge upset to finish off the regular season? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Villanova vs. Butler on Saturday, March 5.
Villanova vs Butler odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Villanova opened at -8.5 and is starting to reach -9 at some outlets, despite being on the road. The total, however, has dropped from 129.5 at open to as low as 128 at most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Villanova vs Butler predictions
Predictions made on 3/5/2022 at 8:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Villanova vs Butler game info
• Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Villanova at Butler betting preview
Injuries
Villanova: No injuries to report.
Butler: Jair Bolden G (Questionable), Christian David F (Out), Pierce Thomas G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine Saturday games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Villanova vs. Butler.
Villanova vs Butler picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
I wouldn’t say that Villanova is a National Championship contender this season. However, the Wildcats are still one the best teams in the Big East, going up against one of the worst teams in the Big East.
The Wildcats won’t have trouble offensively. Villanova is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52.4% while only turning the ball over 15.4% of the time. The Wildcats have hit 36.4% from deep and 50.7% from inside the arc. More notably, the Wildcats have shot 82.8% from the foul line, which is the best rate in college basketball this season and one of the best rates you’ll ever see in a regular season by a college basketball team.
The Wildcats also earn 30.9% offensive rebounds and get to the line at an above-average rate. Meanwhile, Butler has defended the 3-point line at a solid rate, holding teams to 31.1% from three. However, inside, Butler has allowed teams to shoot 51.9%, and rarely forces turnovers.
On the other hand, Butler’s offense has been inconsistent. The Bulldogs have shot an effective field goal percentage of 47.5% while hitting just 30.6% from three and 48.7% from inside the arc. Even at the foul line, it’s bad, as the Bulldogs have hit just 68.4% of foul shot attempts.
Villanova’s defense isn’t elite, but it’s good enough for the Big East. The Wildcats are holding opponents to a 48.2% effective field goal percentage while limiting opponents to 32.4% from three and 47.9% from inside the arc.
The Wildcats also keep teams away from the line at a consistent rate and earn 19.2% of turnovers this season.
Despite all of these discrepancies, Villanova is sitting at just -8.5 at many books. I’m grabbing it.
Prediction: Villanova -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
I’m not expecting Butler to go crazy offensively. Both teams are using nearly 20 seconds per possession. It’s going to be a slow, grind-it-out matchup. But that doesn’t mean the game can’t go Over.
Villanova is one of the most efficient teams in the country on the offensive end and when Butler is home, the offense picks up a little bit more.
Plus, if Butler hangs around in this game until the end, fouling Villanova is always a solid way to pile on points.
With the total sitting at 128, I’ll take the Over here.
Prediction: Over 128 (-110)
Best bet
The Villanova Wildcats are extremely efficient and know how to win on the road. The Butler crowd won’t get to them, and the offense should have a great day in the half-court.
Villanova is everything that Butler is not on the offensive end. And to be fair, Villanova is also everything Butler isn’t on the defense too.
Opponents have shot 75.4% against Villanova from the foul line this year, which is a bit unlucky. Butler likely won’t be shooting that percentage from the line tonight.
Give me Villanova -8.5.
Pick: Villanova -8.5 (-110)
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