Villanova vs Providence Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tuckered Friars Must Be Careful With Cats

Providence and Villanova meet in a pivotal Big East matchup on Saturday afternoon, as the Friars will be looking to grab second place in the conference. 

Providence is coming off a thrilling double-digit victory over Creighton last time out. The victory broke the Jays’ winning streak of eight, which was one of the longest active streaks in college basketball.

Villanova has had growing pains in a season that was always going to be a transition year under first-year head coach Kyle Neptune. That said, the Wildcats may have turned the corner. They’ve won two straight games, including last time out against Seton Hall. They did something they had yet to do for much of the season that night — finish a game.

What’s the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Providence vs. Villanova on Saturday, February 18.

Villanova vs Providence best odds

Villanova vs Providence picks and predictions

The first thing that grabs your attention here is the potential for the letdown spot. Providence has been incredible at home this season. In fact, they are a perfect 14-0 within the confines of the Amica Mutual Pavillon. That can’t be ignored. 

What also can’t be ignored is that the Friars are coming off a highly-emotional double-overtime win against Creighton three days ago. With all that in mind, I will grab the points with the Wildcats.

As I noted earlier, Villanova has been a much better team over the last two weeks. Some of that can be attributed to the return of Justin Moore to the lineup.

The senior guard is likely the best pro prospect on the Villanova team. With him in the lineup, the Wildcats get another dynamic on-ball scorer. They’ve gone 3-3 SU since his return, but have matched their longest winning streak with him in the lineup. 

He’s an ideal option to attack a weak point of the Providence defense. Dating back to last season, Moore has been one of the better spot-up shooting options for Villanova. That’s the weak spot of this Providence defense. They’ve allowed an eFG% of over 50% on spot-up sets, which is third-worst in the Big East. In a short sample size this season, Moore has posted an eFG% of 63% on spot-up sets, which is well above his (still impressive) mark of 51% a season ago. 

This is a crucial matchup that Villanova can exploit. Especially if Brandon Slater can join Moore in being dialed in on jump shots.

On the other end, Providence isn’t a team that will kill you with its offense. That’s a plus for a Villanova team that has been just average on that side of the ball. 

Even better for Villanova is that Providence is very reliant on transition scoring. That’s where it gets nearly 20% of its points. But you’re not going to get many opportunities to score in transition against Villanova. 

Nobody in the Big East plays fewer possessions per game than Villanova, for starters. Secondly, when they have to defend in transition, they only allow 44% shooting. That’s second-best in the Big East, and only surpassed by a Creighton team that could easily be 2-0 against the Friars.

All things point to one spot here, and that’s backing Villanova. It’s strength-on-strength, and I’m taking an improving Villanova team to stay close enough to cover here.

My best bet: Villanova +5 (-110 at BetRivers)

Villanova vs Providence spread analysis

We’re backing Villanova to get the cover here.

As far as a winner, it’s much closer to a 50/50 proposition than the oddsmakers’ price may indicate. Still, I’m not willing to back either side on the moneyline. 

When these teams last met earlier in the season, Providence came away with a five-point win in a game that the Wildcats let slip away late. That game also saw just a five-point scoring effort from Justin Moore, who looked much less comfortable than he is now. 

I expect a bigger performance from him in this spot. Look for Moore to be key in grabbing at least a cover for Villanova.

Villanova vs Providence Over/Under analysis

This total is a strong “stay away” from me. 

I projected a number of 143.5, which is a healthy edge to the Over, given the total of 137.5 available at FanDuel as of this writing. However, some circumstances make that bet a little less attractive. 

Beyond the defensive advantages aforementioned for both teams, the spot of a potential hangover for the Friars is a significant contributing factor here. If we get a slow start, I may look for some in-game action on the Over, but I’ll need a number of 132 or better — a big difference from the pregame line.

Trend bettors should note that the Under is 4-0 in Villanova’s last four games following a straight-up win, and 6-1 in its last seven games overall. The Under is also 4-1 in Providence’s last five games following a straight-up win.

While the handicap may favor an Over play, the trends point a different way. That adds significantly to the “stay away” factor.

Villanova vs Providence betting trend to know

The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. Providence.

Villanova vs Providence game info

Villanova vs Providence key injuries

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