The Villanova Wildcats and Purdue Boilermakers will play an early 1 p.m. ET match-up in the Cheez-It Hall of Fame Tip-Off Finals.
The Villanova Wildcats knocked off Tennessee in a 71-53 blowout in the first of two semifinals games. On the other hand, the Purdue Boilermakers took advantage of North Carolina’s injuries and defeated the Tar Heels, 93-84 in the other semifinal game.
Against Tennessee, Villanova shot just 37.3 percent from the field in an off shooting night. However, Purdue has scored over 90 points in every single game this season.
Can Villanova figure out a way to stop Purdue? Here are our picks and predictions between the Villanova Wildcats and Purdue Boilermakers.
Villanova vs Purdue odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Yesterday, Villanova was a 2.5-point favorite against Tennessee. Today, the Wildcats are a 2.5-point underdog against Purdue and the line hasn’t changed since opening. The total has also opened at 141.5 and hasn’t seen line movement since. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Villanova vs Purdue predictions
Predictions made on 11/21/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Villanova vs Purdue game info
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
• Date: Sunday, November 21, 2021
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Villanova at Purdue betting preview
Injuries
Villanova: Bryan Antoine G (Out).
Purdue: Mason Gillis F (Out), Brain Waddell F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Villanova vs. Purdue.
Villanova vs Purdue picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Yesterday, I was wrong on Villanova. I even had an account with zero followers and no profile reach out to me about how wrong I was about Villanova.
It’s a shame these people never write messages when you’re completely correct on games, but he wasn’t wrong about yesterday’s article! Villanova didn’t turn the ball over and despite shooting 37.3 percent from the field, the Wildcats won the game by 18 over a young Tennessee squad.
The Wildcats are still turning the ball over just 10.4 percent of the time with an offensive efficiency of 115.6, which ranks third in the country. Villanova is also shooting an effective field goal percentage of 56.8 percent and has knocked down 45.4 percent of threes to start the season.
Purdue, on the other hand, is going to be a terrific defense this year. It has an 89.8 percent defensive adjusted efficiency but has only forced 17.5 percent of turnovers. Again, Villanova will more than likely limit turnovers but could struggle to get to the line along with getting second-chance opportunities.
The Boilermakers are only allowing opponents to grab 22.4 percent of offensive rebounds on the season. However, teams are still shooting 30.2 percent from long range and 46.7 percent from inside against Purdue.
Still, if Purdue’s defense can stick around in the top 25 in defensive adjusted efficiency, it’ll be just fine. The Boilermakers are absolutely dominating on the offensive end, scoring 94.3 points per game. They’ve got a 62.4 effective field goal percentage and have been lights out from long range and inside, shooting 42.1 percent from outside and 61.5 from inside.
Currently, Villanova is allowing opponents to shoot 53.4 percent from inside and it’s held opponents to a 51.8 effective field goal percentage, which is below average.
I’ll roll with the Boilermakers laying the 2.5. They’ll get it done inside the paint.
Prediction: Purdue -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Right now, there’s no stopping either of these two offenses. Fatigue can start to set in, but with Purdue scoring over 90 points in every game this season, it’s extremely hard to take the Under in this matchup.
Purdue is scoring 44 percent of their points inside the arc and that could get higher after today’s game if the proper adjustments are made. Meanwhile, Villanova, despite shooting just over 37 percent last week, will get to take on a Purdue team that isn’t known for forcing turnovers.
The more shots that go up for Villanova, the better off the Over is.
Prediction: Over 141.5 (-110)
Best bet
Last night, Trevion Williams scored 20 points in 13 minutes going 8-for-10 from the field. Meanwhile, Zach Edey, the 7-foot-4 sophomore played just 19 minutes with nine points and just three rebounds.
Edey averages 16.3 points per game along with 8.5 rebounds. Against Villanova, if he can stay out of foul trouble, he’ll have a good matchup along with the other bigs for Purdue.
Once the scoring gets going inside, the Boilermakers will have plenty of opportunities from long range. Last night, they shot 43.5 percent from beyond the arc and should be successful from long range against Villanova as well.
If Villanova has a better shooting night, this game will remain close throughout. Therefore, I’ll take the Over as the best bet here.
Pick: Over 141.5 (-110)
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