Villanova vs UConn Picks and Predictions: Defensive Powerhouses Push Game Under Total

Big East beasts collide in Storrs, Connecticut when the Villanova Wildcats battle the UConn Huskies tonight. 

These programs clashed earlier in the month, with the Wildcats winning 85-74 as 4-point NCAA basketball betting favorites on their home court. That victory sparked a five-game winning streak for Villanova. The Huskies have had issues on the road, going 3-5 against the spread as visitors, but play their third straight game inside the XL Center, where they boast the 14th-best home winning margin in the country (+18.9).

Here are our free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Villanova at Connecticut on February 22.

Villanova vs UConn odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Connecticut opened as slim 1-point home chalk and has since jumped to -2 with early play on UConn. The total hit the board at 137 points and has dropped 1.5 points to 135.5 as of Tuesday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Villanova vs UConn predictions

• Prediction: Villanova +2 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 138 (-114)
• Best bet: Under 138 (-114)

Predictions made on 2/22/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Villanova vs UConn game info

• Location: XL Center, Hartford, CN
• Date: Tuesday, February 22, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox Sports 1

Villanova at UConn betting preview

Injuries

Villanova: Collin Gillespie G (Questionable), Nnanna Njoku F (Questionable).
UConn: Akok Akok F (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Huskies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Villanova vs. UConn.

Villanova vs UConn picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The last time these rivals met, Villanova rolled UConn in Philly and did so without star guard Justin Moore in the lineup and missed point guard Collin Gillespie for the final seven minutes due to a foot injury.

Moore is back in action and powering the program to the finish line, averaging 17.5 points and seven rebounds over his last four games. Gillespie remains a threat from outside even as he battles through foot injuries in February (Wright said he was about 80% for tonight’s game and is expected to play).

The Huskies are also feeling the grind of a long season and that’s been exacerbated by a condensed schedule down the stretch, with UConn getting very few rest spots. The Huskies have played a game or held a practice in 20 straight days and it’s starting to show on the players. 

Tyrese Martin, R.J. Cole, and Isaiah Whaley have all missed practice or been battling through injuries, and reserve forward Akok Akok has missed six games with a bum foot. Head coach Dan Hurley doesn’t go too far down the bench, ranking 204th in reserve minutes, so UConn’s gas tank will be tested tonight.

The Wildcats have a long list of contributors and if they smell blood in the water, they’ll go after the UConn starters. Villanova drew 20 personal fouls on the Huskies on February 5, getting to the line for 22 free throws and missing only one. The Wildcats have been drawing whistles during their five-game streak, going to the line for an average of 22.2 free throws per outing — a big jump from their season average of 16.4 FTA before this run.

Prediction: Villanova +2 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under saw instant adjustment, with early sharp action moving the total from 137 points to as low as 135. But since that initial move, Over money has bumped this number back to its original opener and beyond.

Connecticut is a different animal inside the XL Center, namely on the defensive end. The Huskies give up less than 61 points per homestand (versus 70.1 ppg on the road) while boasting a defensive efficiency rating of 0.860 as hosts — 17th lowest in the land.

Villanova also presents decisive splits between home and away, with its offensive output dipping more than six points and its effective field goal rate slipping from 58% at home to 48.3% on the road. The Wildcats’ success from beyond the arc sees one of the bigger declines, sliding from 42.1% inside the Wells Fargo Center to just 31.9% away from Philadelphia.

Hurley is still going to respect the Wildcats’ range and point-scoring punch on the perimeter, throwing a 1-3-1 zone at Villanova. That means having a hand up on shooters on the wing and hoping weak side rotation can come quickly when the Wildcats dump it inside. 

These are two very strong defensive teams — ranked 25th and 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency — as well as two methodical paces with the basketball, most notably Villanova, which runs the 12th slowest tempo in the country.

Prediction: Under 138 (-114)

Best bet

The closing total for their February 5 matchup was 128.5 points, and that was made with Moore out of the lineup. These Big East teams blasted that number, thanks to a second-half scoring surge that put 90 points on the scoreboard.

Tonight’s total, of course, is factoring in the health of Villanova’s stars — sitting 10 points higher — but seems like a stretch considering how hard the Huskies clamp down on defense inside the XL Center and the postseason-like atmosphere this game will take on.

The Wildcats’ low tempo on offense combined with their gritty play on defense will attempt to slow up UConn’s speed. Wright knows he can’t allow UConn’s stars like Cole to dictate the pace, as the Huskies did in the second half of that last meeting — scoring 45 points in the final 20 minutes after mustering only 29 in the first half. 

With pressure on the perimeter, both offenses will rely on ball movement to open space. That will chew up the shot clock and leave this final score playing Under the 138-point total tonight.

Pick: Under 138 (-114)

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