Villanova vs Xavier Odds, Picks and Predictions: Sending the Wildcats Running

The Villanova Wildcats head to Cincinnati to face off against the No. 16 Xavier Musketeers in Big East action on Tuesday night.

The Musketeers are in a three-way tie for second place in the conference standings, and every game between now and Selection Sunday is crucial. Meanwhile, 'Nova is below .500 and needs to catch on fire down the stretch if it wants to make the NCAA Tournament.

College basketball betting lines opened with the Musketeers as 6-point home favorites before slimming to -4.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Villanova vs. Xavier.

Villanova vs Xavier best odds

Villanova vs Xavier picks and predictions

The Xavier Musketeers are a modest 3-3 straight up and against the spread in their last six games, but all of those defeats came on the road. Although one of those losses was against a poor Butler squad, the other two came against Marquette (on a last-second basket) and Creighton, two ranked schools battling for first place in the Big East.

Now they get to face a mediocre Villanova team at home, where the Musketeers are 14-1 SU with an average scoring differential of plus-12.8 points per game. 

The Wildcats boast a formidable lineup on paper, but that hasn't been translating into much on-court success. They're 6-9 SU and ATS over the team's last 15 games, and eight of those nine losses were five-plus point defeats.

Senior guard Justin Moore recently returned after a 10-month absence, but he's looked rusty and hasn't been able to ignite a Villanova offense that sits outside the top 200 in field-goal percentage (43.5%) and scoring (69.5 points per game). The Wildcats won't be able to keep up with a fast-paced Xavier team that shoots a sizzling 49.9% from the floor and averages 82.6 points per game.

My best bet: Xavier -4.5 (-110 at bet365)

Villanova vs Xavier spread analysis

Villanova came into the season ranked as the No. 16 team in the country, but the school has plummeted from the rankings during Kyle Neptune's first year leading the program.

The Wildcats endured an ugly stretch earlier in their non-conference schedule, going just 1-5 SU and ATS with defeats against Portland and Temple. Things haven't gotten any better during Big East play, as Villanova has compiled a 7-9 record. The team also suffered a 13-point loss to Providence as 3.5-point road pups over the weekend. 

The Wildcats do boast an experienced starting lineup, with four seniors surrounding five-star freshman Cam Whitmore. All five of those players are averaging double digits in points, including Caleb Daniels (15.9 points per game) and Eric Dixon (15.7 points per game and 6.7 rebounds per game). 

The Musketeers are 12-4 in conference play and are coming off an 82-68 home victory against Big East cellar-dweller DePaul on Saturday. But three of those four defeats have come since Jan. 28 when they lost forward Zach Freemantle to a foot injury. He won't come back until March. 

Meanwhile, Xavier can attack with plenty of scoring options besides Freemantle, with three other starters averaging more than 14 points per game in Souley Boum (16.2 points per game, 4.7 assists per game), Colby Jones (14.9 points per game, 4.7 assists per game), and Jack Nunge (14.7 points per game, 7.9 rebounds per game).

However, the Musketeers will still miss Freemantle's highly efficient scoring and rebounding. He was a big reason they beat Nova on the road on Jan. 7, when Freemantle dropped 29 points in a 88-80 victory. 

The Musketeers are 10th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. But they rank a modest 85th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Wildcats are 48th in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 99th defensively.

However, KenPom ratings are based on overall season analytics and don't reflect injuries or recent lineup changes. The Wildcats getting back Moore in January and the Musketeers playing without Freemantle (and possibly key reserve Desmond Claude as well) isn't built into those ratings.

That's why KenPom is projecting an eight-point victory for the Musketeers on Tuesday, but the spread opened at -6 for Xavier before money on Villanova moved it down to -4.5.

Villanova vs Xavier Over/Under analysis

These schools are polar opposites when it comes to pace, with the Musketeers 24th in the country in adjusted tempo and the Wildcats 340th. The Wildcats did play at a faster tempo when these sides clashed in January, and they should shoot a bit better than usual considering how poorly Xavier defends.

The Wildcats don't shoot well from the perimeter (228th in the country with a 33.0 3-point percentage), and they struggle to get second chances on the offensive glass (327th in offensive rebound rate). However, they also rarely turn the ball over and get to face a Musketeers team that ranks outside the top 250 in opponent's turnover rate (16.7%), and outside the top 300 in opponent's 3-point percentage (36.6%). 

But the Musketeers are fourth in the country while shooting 39.6% from beyond the arc. Their excellent ball movement (fourth in the country in assists per field goal made) and ability to score from anywhere on the floor makes them very tough to defend.

Even without Freemantle, Xavier has scored 80-plus points in three of the school's last five games. The Musketeers shouldn't struggle to get good looks at the basket against a Villanova team that isn't in the top 200 with a 51.1 EFG%.

Villanova vs Xavier betting trend to know

The Over is 19-6-1 in Xavier's last 26 home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. Xavier.

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