Virginia Tech vs Duke Odds, Picks and Predictions: Devil is In the Details

After flirting with the bubble for a fleeting moment, Duke is safely in the NCAA Tournament. However, they'll want to keep building their resume and seed line when they welcome Virginia Tech to town. 

Safely in the tournament is not something the Hokies can claim. After a tough start to the season, Virginia Tech was put behind the eight-ball. A loss a few games ago to Georgia Tech has forced them to win out to even get back in the conversation again. 

What's the Best Bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Duke vs. Virginia Tech on Saturday, March 25.

Virginia Tech vs Duke best odds

Virginia Tech vs Duke picks and predictions

This is an excellent matchup offensively for Virginia Tech. 

So often, the story about the Hokies this season has been if they can get stops. Virginia Tech is a borderline elite offensive team, and Head Coach Mike Young is a fantastic offensive schemer. Because of this, that side of the court is rarely questioned, and this season is no exception. Instead, it's about the defense, which has allowed an average of 75 points over its last three games, so let's start there. 

The problem for Duke today is what will be a problem for them in the tournament: Can its guards do enough to change the game? The weak spot of the Virginia Tech defense is defending the pick-and-roll. It's been atrocious there most of the season. The Hokies have allowed a 44% FG on pick-and-roll sets, which places them last in the conference – even behind Louisville. 

I'm not sure Duke has the guards capable, they'll get the usage to attack this issue, though. Tyrese Proctor nor Jeremy Roach really excel here. Duke's pick-and-roll offense only scores .73 points per possession, below the national average. 

Much of the reason Louisville stayed close to Duke last week (in a game that ended in a late flurry for the Blue Devils) was that they couldn't attack the weakest point of the Cardinals' defense. Proctor and Roach did end up combining for 24 points, but much of that came late when Louisville's lack of depth showed and, in addition, came via spot-up shooting and not pick-and-roll. 

Virginia Tech will score on the other side of the ball. We know this because they score against most teams, but we also know it because Duke struggles in the places where Virginia Tech excels. Duke's two worst defensive places on the floor are defending post-ups and cutters. So much has been made about Dereck Lively's blocking ability when guards drive to the rim that his individual post-up defense has been ignored. 

However, it could have been better. It has yet to be good for anyone on Duke, so they've allowed over a point per possession on post-ups. That mark is one of the worst in the country, and Virginia Tech has a great scoring big man in Grant Basile, who can take advantage of that.

This spread is too high, and I wouldn't be shocked if Virginia Tech even manages to pull off the outright upset here. This is a bad matchup for Duke, and I expect the Hokies to take advantage of it in a last-gasp effort to make the NCAA Tournament.

My best bet: Virginia Tech +7 (-110 at DraftKings)

Virginia Tech vs Duke spread analysis

My projections have this as a one-possession game, which makes this an easy play after the handicap. 

Again, the matchups here swing heavily in favor of Virginia Tech. However, there's no doubt that Duke has more individual talent, which is a key contributor to giving us the spread we have. 

But I'm still going to take the coaching of Virginia Tech in Mike Young and the schematic advantage. With that in mind, I'll play a 1/2u on the Virginia Tech moneyline. The best price I could find was +250 at SuperBook; that same number is also available at Caesars and DraftKings as of Saturday morning. 

Virginia Tech vs Duke Over/Under analysis

No play on the total here. My numbers project a total of 143.5, spot-on with oddsmakers' numbers. I indeed lean to the Over, but some questions about the pace that Virginia Tech will play at and what Duke will do on offense loom large. Because of that, this is a firm stay away from me.

The Over has been trendy in Virginia Tech games as of late. All four of its last four games have gone Over after an ATS loss, like the one they are coming off. In addition to that, they've had four straight weekend games all go Over. 

Virginia Tech vs Duke betting trend to know

Virginia Tech is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss. Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia Tech vs. Duke.

Virginia Tech vs Duke game info

Virginia Tech vs Duke key injuries

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