Virginia Tech vs North Carolina ACC Tournament Picks and Predictions: Hokies Hold Court at Barclays

Fresh off of a beatdown of the Virginia Cavaliers, the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Virginia Tech Hokies in the ACC Tournament semifinal. North Carolina won both meetings between these teams during the regular season, so it’ll be interesting to see if the neutral-court environment changes anything here. 

Will the Tar Heels move to 3-0 over the Hokies with a win at the Barclays Center? Keep reading our Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina college basketball picks and predictions for the best plays in this one. 

Virginia Tech vs North Carolina odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

North Carolina opened as a 2-point favorite over Virginia Tech, but you can get the line from anywhere between 1.5 and 2.5. The total, which opened at 141.5, is all over the place as of early Friday afternoon. You can find it at as low as 139 and as high as 142. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Virginia Tech vs North Carolina predictions

• Prediction: Virginia Tech +2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 142 (-110)
• Best bet: Virginia Tech +2.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/11/2022 at 11:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Virginia Tech vs North Carolina game info

• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Friday, March 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Virginia Tech vs North Carolina betting preview

Injuries

Virginia Tech: No injuries to report. 
North Carolina: Dawson Garcia F (Out), Anthony Harris G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

North Carolina is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six neutral-court games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina.

Virginia Tech vs North Carolina picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

It’s a little fishy to see the Hokies as only 2.5-point underdogs in this game, as they lost their two regular-season meetings against the Tar Heels by an average of 9.0 points per game. It does, however, make more sense when you factor in what we’ve seen from Virginia Tech thus far.

This Hokies team rode the momentum of a buzzer-beater in its win over Clemson by earning a seven-point win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish yesterday. They’re beginning to really gain confidence and have the three-point shooting to beat anyone in this tournament. 

In Nahiem Alleyne, Storm Murphy, Hunter Cattoor and Hokies hero Darius Maddox, Virginia Tech is capable of going on some nice runs behind the group’s marksmanship from deep. This North Carolina team that they’re facing isn’t all that great defensively, so there should be clean looks for all of them.

And it’s not like they don’t play in a system that creates good opportunities, as they’re 26th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com). If all of the shooters do their jobs, that’ll also make it easier on Keve Aluma and Justyn Mutts to do theirs. 

It is, however, crucial that Virginia Tech has a plan in place to stop Armando Bacot. Bacot is a threat to rack up 20 points and 20 rebounds on almost any night, but that’s especially true against a small Hokies frontcourt. The team also has to do a good job of keeping Caleb Love from going off. He had 21 points and seven assists the last time these teams met, but Virginia Tech should do a better job on him here. 

All in all, the Hokies are just in a groove in Brooklyn, and they now face a Tar Heels team that wasn’t exactly tested by the Cavaliers last night. 

Prediction: Virginia Tech +2.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Under is 10-4 in the last 14 games that Virginia Tech has played against teams with winning records. It’s also 7-3 in the last 10 games that the Hokies have played overall. On top of that, the Under is 12-3 in the last 15 games that North Carolina has played as a neutral-court favorite. Yesterday did nothing to change that, with the Cavaliers and Tar Heels combining to score only 106 points. 

While these teams both boast some impressive talent on offense, this is just going to be a hard-fought game. When there’s a spot in the finals on the line, players tend to tense up and nerves get the best of them. That shouldn’t change in what is likely to be a close game here, and you should expect both of these teams to be really dialed in on the defensive end down the stretch. 

These teams also combined to score only 122 points when they met back on February 19. 

Prediction: Under 142 (-110)

Best bet

Over the last two seasons, North Carolina is just 2-10 against the spread when playing away from home against teams that outscore opponents by at least 8.0 points per game. The Tar Heels have lost those games by an average of 6.5 points per game, and they are also now facing a Hokies squad that is 6-4 ATS when playing within a line of +3 to -3 this year. Virginia Tech is also 4-1 both straight-up and ATS when coming off a game in which the team shot 55.0% or better from the field. 

It’s just really hard to not go with the live ‘dog in this game. Virginia Tech looked excellent on both ends of the floor against a good Notre Dame team last night, and head coach Mike Young has two game tapes to figure out how to get his players to perform at a high level against the Tar Heels. 

Pick: Virginia Tech +2.5 (-110) 

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