The 11th-seeded Virginia Tech Hokies face off against the No. 14-seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the ACC Tournament on Tuesday night. The Hokies went just 8-12 in conference play but still looked much better down the stretch than the Irish, who won just three conference games in head coach Mike Brey's last season before retiring.
NCAAB odds opened with the Hokies as 6.5-point favorites with the Over/Under at 143.5 for this clash at the Greensboro Coliseum in North Carolina. Here are my best free Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame college basketball picks and predictions for March 7.
Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame best odds
Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame picks and predictions
The Irish play at a sluggish pace but they are awful defensively and rank 262nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. That's bad news against a Virginia Tech team that is 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency this season and is averaging 77.2 ppg in its last 12 games.
On the other end of the floor, the Irish do a decent job of knocking down shots from beyond the arc and shoot an impressive 76.1% from the charity stripe.
However, they are too reliant on their outside shooting and are far less efficient inside the arc. They also rarely get to the line while the Hokies are 36th in the country in opponent free throw rate (19.4%), with that number dropping to an even better 13% in their last three games.
Both teams will likely be without starting guards, with Virginia Tech's Darius Maddox (8.5 ppg) missing the last 11 games for personal reasons and Notre Dame's JJ Starling (11.2 ppg) questionable with a knee injury. However, Maddox shoots a pathetic 37% from the field and the Hokies have actually played better in his absence, while the Irish have serious depth issues and a significant dropoff from Starling.
When these teams faced off last month in South Bend, the Hokies came away with a 93-87 victory as 5-point road faves. With only a slightly larger line tonight at a neutral site with Starling possibly sidelined, I'll lay the points with the faves.
My best bet: Virginia Tech -6.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame spread analysis
It's been a roller-coaster season for the Hokies, who won 10 of their first 11 games before losing seven in a row between December 21 and January 21. They've been more competitive lately, going 7-5 straight up and against the spread in their last 12 games, and are coming off a 22-point victory against Florida State.
It's been ugly all season for the Irish, who padded their record against easy non-conference foes earlier in the season but have looked awful against quality opponents. They've lost eight of their last nine games and are fresh off a 23-point beatdown at the hands of Clemson.
However, it is worth mentioning that while the Irish went a pathetic 3-14 ATS in their first 17 games of the season, they have covered in four of their last six contests.
The Irish have struggled away from South Bend all season, going 0-10 on the road and 0-2 on neutral sites. The Hokies are just 2-9 in true road games but did go 3-0 on neutral ground with victories against Oklahoma State and Penn State.
Big man Nate Laszewski leads Notre Dame with 14.0 points and 7.2 rebounds per game and has impressive 52/40/85 shooting splits. Senior guards Cormac Ryan and Dane Goodwin chip in with 12.1 ppg and 11.4 ppg respectively.
The Hokies have four players averaging double digits in points led by Grant Basile (16.5 ppg on 52/40/70 shooting splits) and Sean Pedulla (15.4 ppg). Forward Justyn Mutts leads the team in rebounds (7.3), assists (4.8), and steals (1.6) per game while adding 12.9 ppg.
Notre Dame has struggled on the glass and ranks outside the Top 300 in rebounding rate.
Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame Over/Under analysis
These teams combined for a whopping 180 points when they previously met up, easily eclipsing the total of 143. We're seeing a similar O/U today at 143.5 which is largely due to the slower pace that both teams prefer.
The Irish are 308th in the country in adjusted tempo while the Hokies are 215th. However, with both teams playing better on offense than defense, the Over might be a decent play again.
Both of these teams do an excellent job of not giving away the ball with the Irish boasting the second-lowest turnover rate in the country (13.2%) and the Hokies 14th (14.5%). They also rarely force turnovers with Notre Dame 361st in opponent turnover rate (13.4%) and Virginia Tech 274th (16.3%).
Despite their slower pace, the Irish surrender 74.7 ppg in conference play and they rank just 13th in opponent field goal percentage (46.3%) against ACC foes. The Hokies' defense isn't much better, allowing 73.3 ppg on 46% shooting in conference play.
Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
The Hokies are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams with all of those victories coming as the favorite. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida State vs. Georgia Tech.
Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame game info
| Conference: | ACC Round 1 |
| Location: | Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 7, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
