Virginia vs Duke Odds, Picks and Predictions: Blue Devils Lock Down on Saturday

The No. 10 Duke Blue Devils host the Virginia Cavaliers in ACC basketball action on Saturday night. The Blue Devils are second in the conference with a 13-4 record, while the Cavaliers are right behind them with a 12-6 mark.

However, UVA had dropped three of its last five games and is expected to lose again, with college basketball odds installing the Blue Devils as 9.5-point home favorites. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Virginia vs. Duke on March 2.

Virginia vs Duke best odds

Virginia vs Duke picks and predictions

It's strength against strength in this matchup with a highly-efficient Duke Blue Devils offense facing a Virginia Cavaliers squad that defends at an elite level. The Cavaliers are 10th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while playing at the slowest tempo, which should make it very tough for the Blue Devils to win by double digits. Fewer possessions always means fewer chances to separate on the scoreboard and the old adage, defense travels, definitely applies in this case.

That said, one of the few ways to unlock Virginia's pack-line defense is with good ball movement and multiple 3-point shooters — which Duke has. The Blue Devils are eighth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and ninth in 3-point percentage (38.6%) while ranking 39th in passing per ShotQualityBets.

I'm still on the fence about how well this Virginia defense can limit Duke's scoring, so I'm reluctant to bet a side. However, I'm more confident in Duke's underrated defense being able to shut down a Virginia offense that has looked terrible lately.

The Cavaliers are coming off a game where they dropped 72 points against Boston College's piss-poor defense, but they had been held below 50 points in each of their previous three games. The Blue Devils have held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 70 points, with three of those foes failing to crack the 60-point plateau.

Virginia is 291st in the country in two-point percentage (47.2%), with that number dropping to just 44.4% on the road. The Cavaliers have done a much better job of shooting from the perimeter, ranking 49th in 3-point percentage (36.5%). However, that ticks down to 34.7% on the road, and Duke holds opponents to 30.9% shooting from deep at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

The Blue Devils are 25th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and in what should be an extremely slow-paced game tonight, expect them to hold the Cavaliers below their team total.

My best bet: Virginia team total Under 57.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Virginia vs Duke same-game parlay

Virginia team total Under 57.5 

Jared McCain Under 13.5 points

Alternative spread Virginia +14.5

+400 at bet365

Freshman guard Jared McCain has been terrific for Duke and he's second on the team with 13.6 ppg. However, he can be very streaky with his offensive production and has been held to 12 or fewer points in seven of his last 15 contests. Playing against a Virginia team that defends the perimeter very well and is second in the country in scoring defense (58.7 ppg), fade McCain on his points total. 

I'm on the fence about taking either side on the spread, but since I'm fading Virginia on its team total, I'm able to take an alternative spread at +14.5 for the Cavaliers on this SGP and still get a nice multiplier. Even if the Cavaliers struggle to score themselves, they should be able to slow down the Blue Devils enough to cover this alternate number. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Virginia vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis

This line hit the board with Duke installed as a 9.5-point favorite with the Over/Under at 126. The spread hasn't seen any movement but money has come in the Under, shifting the total to 124.

After losing on the road in Chapel Hill at the start of February, Duke closed the month strong going 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games. In their last contest, the Blue Devils destroyed Louisville 84-59 and they are now 12-1 at home with an average scoring margin of +17.5 ppg. 

The Cavaliers are coming off a 72-68 road win against Boston College. It was a close contest against an Eagles squad that is just 6-11 in conference play and that snapped a four-game span where they went just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. 

Virginia vs Duke betting trend to know

Virginia has hit the team total Under in 20 of its last 34 games (+4.05 Units / 10% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. Duke.

Virginia vs Duke game info

Virginia vs Duke key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic