Virginia vs Duke Picks and Predictions: Cavaliers Crumble Under Blue Devils' Curse

The Duke Blue Devils host the Virginia Cavaliers in NCAA basketball action on Monday night.

The Blue Devils look like national championship contenders in head coach Mike Krzyzewski's final year with the program and oddsmakers are expecting them to roll against UVA tonight with college basketball betting lines opening with Duke as a 12.5-point favorite before shortening to -11.5.

Here are our best free Virginia vs. Duke college basketball betting picks and predictions for Monday, February 7, with tipoff at 7 p.m. ET

Virginia vs Duke odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The odds hit the board for this ACC clash with Duke installed as a 12.5-point home favorite with the Over/Under at 127. Early action has come in on Virginia and the Over, shifting the line to Duke -11.5 and bumping the total to 128.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Virginia vs Duke predictions

• Prediction: Duke -11.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 128 (-110)
• Best bet: Duke team total Over 70.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/07/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Virginia vs Duke game info

• Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
• Date: Monday, February 7, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Virginia at Duke betting preview

Injuries

Virginia: None.
Duke: None.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in the Cavaliers' last six games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Virginia vs. Duke.

Virginia vs Duke picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Blue Devils were No. 9 in last week's AP Top 25 poll and might be even higher when the newest rankings drop today after they stomped Notre Dame and North Carolina on the road in back-to-back contests. Duke limited the Fighting Irish to just 43 points on 28% shooting in a defensive showcase last Monday before traveling to Chapel Hill and taking the soul of the Tar Heels on Saturday. 

The Blue Devils dominated UNC in every aspect of that 87-67 victory, shooting 58% from the floor while limiting the Tar Heels to 41% and boasting a 36-22 edge on the boards. Duke has now won seven of its last eight games and has gone 6-2 against the spread over that span. 

Virginia has been very up-and-down this year (embarrassingly losing to Navy and James Madison earlier in the season) but is fresh off back-to-back double-digit victories at home against Miami and Boston College. The Cavaliers are 5-4 SU and ATS in their last nine games.

The Cavaliers still play with the slow-tempo, defense-focused style that helped them win the national title three years ago but they no longer have the outside shooting or lockdown defense of that squad. While they hold ACC foes to 62.9 points per game, their opponent field goal percentage of 45.4% ranks just 10th in the conference. 

The Blue Devils are actually far better in terms of defensive efficiency, allowing just 90.8 points per 100 possessions (28th in the country), and limiting conference opponents to a 39 FG%. They also have a massive edge in offensive firepower, ranking 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom, while UVA ranks 83rd.

While it might seem like Duke is due for a bit of a letdown after such a big-time road win against a rival, recent history suggests that it might actually be Virginia that comes out uninspired. The Cavaliers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win while going 2-6 ATS in their previous eight contests against a team with a winning percentage above .600. 

With Virginia going 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four road games in conference play, including losses of more than 12 points against UNC and North Carolina State, expect a rough welcome for the visitors. 

Prediction: Duke -11.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

With the Cavaliers playing at one of the slowest paces in the country, you might expect the Under to be an automatic consideration. But with a reputation that screams defense, you actually see plenty of lower totals that are ripe for the picking. 

This version of the Cavaliers has actually been more efficient on offense than defense. They rank 71st in the nation with a field goal percentage of 45.7 FG% and limit turnovers on offense but they allow 102.2 points per 100 possessions on the road. 

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are an offensive juggernaut that averages 80.7 ppg with a 48.7 FG%, with those numbers jumping to 83.9 ppg and 49.8 FG% at home. 

The Over is 5-1 in the Cavaliers' last six games. Even if they limit possessions tonight, it won't be easy to keep this number below the very low O/U of 128 with how efficient both offensives have been.

Prediction: Over 128 (-110)

Best bet

When it comes right down to it, the Cavaliers seem to be a bit overrated defensively. Sure, they don't allow many points but they also don't force turnovers and teams have shot the ball well against them. 

Earlier this season, Iowa scored 75 points on 54% shooting versus the Cavs, while the Wolfpack and Tar Heels dropped 77 and 74 points, respectively, against them in recent weeks (with NC State boasting a 60 FG%). In fact, the Cavaliers are allowing ACC foes to shoot a sizzling 37.5% from three-point range.

Now they'll face their toughest defensive test of the season against a Blue Devils squad that can shoot from anywhere on the floor and rarely turns the ball over. Duke has five players scoring more than 9 ppg, led by elite NBA prospect Paolo Banchero  (17.5 ppg) and swingman Wendell Moore (14.2 ppg, 53.2 FG%).

Virginia won't be able to contain all those scoring threats. Back the Blue Devils to go Over their team total tonight. 

Pick: Duke team total Over 70.5 (-110)

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