Virginia vs Louisville ACC Tournament Picks and Predictions: Cards' Wings Clipped

The Louisville Cardinals beat the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the first round of the ACC Tournament, but they now run into a Virginia Cavaliers team that beat them by 10 on Senior Day last Saturday. 

Will a neutral-court environment help Tony Bennett’s team earn an even easier victory over the Cardinals here? Check out our Louisville vs. Virginia college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 9.

Virginia vs Louisville odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Virginia opened as a 6-point favorite in this game and is now laying either 5 or 5.5 on most sportsbooks, despite beating Louisville by 10 on Saturday. As for the total, the number opened at 124.5 and is now down as low as 123.5 already. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Virginia vs Louisville predictions

• Prediction: Virginia -5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 123.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Virginia -5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/9/2022 at 9:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Virginia vs Louisville game info

• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Wednesday, March 9, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Virginia at Louisville betting preview

Injuries

Virginia: No injuries to report.
Louisville: Jae’lyn Withers F (Questionable), Gabe Wiznitzer C (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Louisville is 6-21 against the spread in its last 27 games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Virginia vs. Louisville.

Virginia vs Louisville picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Louisville and Virginia played only five days ago, when the Cavaliers earned a 71-61 win on the road. The Cardinals just had no match for Kihei Clark and the rest of this Virginia offense. Tony Bennett’s team shot 51.0% from the floor and 58.3% from the outside, and also played its signature brand of elite defense. The Cavaliers are just 81st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this year (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com), but they are still capable of going out there and smothering opponents in spurts. Virginia actually held opponents to under 70 points in 10 of its last 11 games to close the year. 

The Cavaliers might not have a record that shows it, but this is a very good basketball team. Nobody in the ACC is going to want to play this squad, as Clark is one of the best point guards in the country. The Cavaliers also have a couple of excellent wings, with Reece Beekman and Kody Stattmann both being tremendous players. Even on the inside, Kadin Shedrick is a solid option for Virginia. 

If Virginia can prevent Sydney Curry from dominating the paint in this game, the team should have no trouble cruising to a win here. Not only are the Cardinals one of the worst teams in the ACC, but they’re likely going to be a bit tired from holding off a furious Georgia Tech run on Tuesday. This just has all the makings of a non-competitive game, and Virginia should be on to bigger and better things. 

Prediction: Virginia -5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Under is 5-2 in Virginia’s last seven games as a neutral-court favorite, and it’s also 4-1-1 in the last six games that Louisville has played at a neutral site. The Under is also 15-9 when Louisville has played against teams that turn the ball over 14.0 or fewer times per game this season, and it’s also 3-2 when the Cardinals face offenses that average 64.0 or less points per game this season. That just means that Virginia’s slow, methodical style of play isn’t likely to result in Louisville being able to play a high-scoring game. And it’s not like the Cardinals are in the best position to change that. They’re just 179th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. 

These teams might have combined to score 132 points last week, but Virginia uncharacteristically shot 58.3% from three in that game. The Cavaliers also went to the free-throw line 18 times. Both of those numbers should come down, and the nerves of playing in such a big game — in such a big arena — should also result in some more missed shots. 

This should be your classic boring Virginia game, with both teams playing at a snail’s pace and some ugly basketball on display. 

Prediction: Under 123.5 (-110)

Best bet

It’s hard to overstate just how dominant Virginia has been in this head-to-head series with Louisville over the years. The Cavaliers are 14-2 straight-up and 10-4-2 against the spread in their 16 meetings with the Cardinals dating back to February 7, 2015. Virginia is also 5-1-1 ATS against Louisville since the start of the 2019 season, so the Cavaliers have had their number in recent seasons. Also, each of their last three wins over the Cardinals came by double digits, so it’s not like these games have been close. 

The Cardinals are just 7-14 SU and 6-14-1 ATS when facing ACC opponents this season. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers were 12-8 both SU and ATS versus conference foes this year. They also happen to be 5-1 both SU and ATS when coming off four straight games of forcing teams to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season. That means that Virginia should be able to watch some tape and ratchet things up defensively to find a way to force its opponent into making mistakes here. 

Overall, this just isn’t a game you’re going to want to overthink. The Cavaliers are a much better team and just aren’t favored by that much. They should come through with a relatively stress-free cover here. 

Pick: Virginia -5 (-110) 

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