Virginia vs North Carolina Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tar Heels Fare Well at Chapel Hill

The No. 6 Virginia Cavaliers head to Chapel Hill to face off against the North Carolina Tar Heels in ACC basketball action on Saturday.

The Cavaliers will try to bounce back from an ugly loss on the road, while the Tar Heels are looking to pick up some wins and enter March Madness with some momentum. 

College basketball odds opened with the Tar Heels as 1.5-point home favorites in this contest, but steam has pushed that number all the way to -4.5. With that said, here are my best free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Virginia vs. North Carolina on February 25.

Virginia vs North Carolina best odds

Virginia vs North Carolina picks and predictions

Both of these teams have struggled to cover the spread lately, but the Virginia Cavaliers' offense falling off a cliff over the last month could be the difference here. The Cavaliers were 19th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Bart Torvik through January 28, but are just 222nd in offensive efficiency in seven games since.

The Cavs are fresh off an ugly 63-48 loss on the road against a mediocre Boston College squad and have gone just 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven away contests. Meanwhile, the North Carolina Tar Heels are 11-2 straight up at home with an average scoring margin of plus 12-ppg. 

When these teams previously clashed on Jan. 10, the Cavaliers won 65-58 in Charlottesville. However, Virginia's best player Armando Bacot (17.3 points and 11.1 rebounds per game on 55.8 FG%) missed almost the entire game after injuring his ankle and starting power forward Pete Nance (9.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) was sidelined as well. 

With a healthy Bacot, the Tar Heels should be able to dominate on the boards and score inside against a Cavaliers team that is allowing foes to shoot 51.1% from 2-point range in their last three games.

The Tar Heels haven't been firing on all cylinders on the road, but they are much better in front of their home fans where they produce at a 54.1% clip from 2-point range. 

With the Cavaliers struggling to put up points, they won't be able to keep up with a more efficient Tar Heels' attack. 

My best bet: North Carolina -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Virginia vs North Carolina spread analysis

The Cavaliers are tied for second place in the ACC standings with a 13-4 record and are coming off a 15-point loss to Boston College. Before that, they barely beat the Fighting Irish at home and squeaked by Louisville on the road.

What's most worrying about that stretch is that all those teams are outside the Top 150 in the NET Rankings, with Louisville ranked just 302nd.  

Although the Tar Heels have failed to meet preseason projections, they are still far better than those schools and are 47th in NET. North Carolina is coming off a 63-59 road win against Notre Dame to improve to 9-8 in conference play.

The Cavaliers are a typical Tony Bennett team that defends very well and plays at an extremely slow pace while limiting turnovers. However, while they were also shooting at an efficient clip earlier in the season, they have gone ice-cold this month. 

They are hitting shots at just 43.5% from the floor in conference play, with that number dropping to 37.4% in their last three games. 

The Tar Heels also haven't been shooting the ball well but their excellent work on the boards (26th in the country in rebound rate) allows them to get plenty of extra chances on offense. 

Virginia vs North Carolina Over/Under analysis

When these teams previously clashed last month, they combined for just 123 points, going well Under the total of 132.5. While the Under checks in even lower today at 130.5, the Under looks like a strong play once again. 

Virginia's highest-scoring player Armaan Franklin averages a modest 12.4 ppg and only two other Cavs players average double-digits. This is a Cavaliers squad that plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country and is averaging just 68.3 ppg. 

That said, they've excelled on defense and are eighth in the country with 60.2 ppg allowed. 

Neither team has been shooting well from deep. The Tar Heels rank just 342nd in the country in 3-point percentage (30%), with that number dropping to just 18.4% in their last three contests. The Cavaliers are also just 27.1% from deep over their last five games. 

However, one thing both sides do extremely well is take care of the ball. Virginia is seventh in the country in turnover rate while North Carolina sits 18th.

That should mean that both UVA and UNC will soak up the clock in half-court sets and prevent easy buckets in transition. 

Virginia vs North Carolina betting trend to know

The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. North Carolina.

Virginia vs North Carolina game info

Virginia vs North Carolina key injuries

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