The Virginia Cavaliers will take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in an exciting ACC matchup.
UNC most recently lost to Notre Dame on the road and hasn’t looked like the North Carolinas we’re used to seeing this year. Meanwhile, Virginia has won two straight games on the road and will look for their third today.
Can North Carolina hold off Virginia? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Virginia vs UNC on Saturday, January 8.
Virginia vs North Carolina odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
North Carolina opened as a 6.5-point favorite but is now currently -5.5 across the board with a couple of 5s hanging. The total has also shifted from 133 at open to as low as 131.5 at this time.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Virginia vs North Carolina predictions
- Prediction: North Carolina -5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 132 (-120)
- Best bet: North Carolina -5 (-110)
Predictions made on 1/8/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Virginia vs North Carolina game info
• Location: Dean Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
• Date: Saturday, January 8, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Virginia at North Carolina betting preview
Injuries
Virginia: No injuries to report.
North Carolina: Dawson Garcia F (Out), Kerwin Walton G (Out), Justin McKoy F (Out), Puff Johnson G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Tar Heels are 17-7-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Virginia vs. North Carolina.
Virginia vs North Carolina picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
It hasn’t been the best season for the North Carolina Tar Heels, but at home, against Virginia, expectations are still high.
North Carolina is one of the best teams on the glass, holding teams to 20.4% offensive rebounds on the season. The Tar Heels have also done very well limiting foul shots and continue to defend at an average rate.
Opponents have hit 32.1% from long range and 49.4% from inside the arc this season against North Carolina.
Meanwhile, Virginia is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 51.5% and struggling to grab offensive rebounds. This, of course, favors North Carolina.
The Cavaliers are shooting just 31.7% from long range, though 53.6% from inside the arc. But second chances, again, will be hard to come by.
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are shooting a 54.9% effective field goal percentage and are one of the best teams in the nation from 3-point range. North Carolina has hit 39.7% from deep and 52.5% from inside.
Virginia hasn’t been great at limiting offensive rebounds and has allowed opponents to grab 30.2%. Therefore, North Carolina should be able to feast on the glass and earn more second-chance opportunities.
I’ll take North Carolina at home here.
Prediction: North Carolina -5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The total seems about right. It’s usually good practice to take an Under when Virginia is playing a basketball game. Teams struggle to score or shoot quickly against Virginia’s defense. Oftentimes, teams are using most of the shot clock in the halfcourt against it.
In turn, North Carolina dominates the defensive glass and will rarely put teams on the line. So, the Under looks good to me here.
Prediction: Under 132 (-110)
Best bet
I like North Carolina here. Sometimes they’re inconsistent, but at home, in an ACC environment, the Tar Heels should be able to shoot the ball well in this game.
Add that the Tar Heels should be able to get more rebounds and limit fouls, and I like North Carolina’s chances to win this game while also covering the spread.
Pick: North Carolina -5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Virginia vs. North Carolina picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
