It's the Pittsburgh Panthers vs Virginia Cavaliers in an ACC contest with profound March Madness implications tonight.
January was eventful for the Panthers, but not in the best way, as they experienced a four-game losing streak. The Cavaliers have lost two of the last three, and while those struggles should continue here, our Virginia vs. Pittsburgh predictions like them to keep it within the spread.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Monday, February 3 with the tip set for 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Virginia vs Pittsburgh prediction
My best bet
Virginia +13.5 (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
This spread is ticked up too high for me. Major analytical sites make it an 11-point spread, and my projection is quite close to that. I'm grabbing the Virginia Cavaliers +13.5, giving me a slightly larger window against my projection.
The Pittsburgh Panthers are a good reflection of the rest of the ACC outside Duke and Louisville (for the moment). They have lacked consistency and have regularly played down to their opponents, showing little maturity throughout the season. Consider what we've seen in matchups against teams in the bottom half of the conference on their schedule recently:
- The Panthers failed to cover as 8-point favorites against Syracuse.
- They failed to cover as 3-point favorites against Florida State, losing by double-digits.
- Lastly, they failed to cover as 13-point favorites against California.
Virginia fits the role of those teams, so I'm not expecting the result to change.
More tangibly, the Cavaliers have some advantages, mostly coming from Pitt's half-court defense.
It's always a challenge to back Virginia to score in any game, and even though I was down on the Ron Sanchez coaching hire, he's started to show some promise with recent offensive adjustments. They are currently in the lowest streak of the season, with games scoring over a point per possession (1.13, 1.10, 1.19, 1.20). You can't discount that accomplishment for a team that has struggled to score many times this season.
You also can't discount the Panthers allowing an above-average amount of scoring on attack & kicks at .96 points per possession. That's the central tenet of the Virginia offense, with the Cavs running those sets at a rate placing them in the Top 3% of college basketball.
Isaac McKneely should benefit here. He's shot the ball better lately and can punish any team for poor closeouts. Additionally, "big" cuts and rolls have also been a concern for Pittsburgh's defense, and they should provide a solid opportunity for some nice secondary offense.
I suspect Virginia keeps this one in the single-digit range.
Virginia vs Pittsburgh same-game parlay (SGP)
Virginia +13.5
Isaac McKneely Over 2.5 threes
Throughout the year, McKneely's been one of the better shooters in the conference, and this is a Pittsburgh team that has struggled to defend the way he typically gets his shots from deep. I'll take him tonight to knock down three from deep, a feat he's accomplished in three of his last four games.
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Virginia vs Pittsburgh odds
Virginia vs Pittsburgh live odds
Virginia vs Pittsburgh opening odds
- Spread: Virginia +12.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh -12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Virginia +525 | Pittsburgh -750
- Over/Under: Over 133.5 (-110) | Under 133.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Virginia vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know
Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of its last 13 away games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. Pittsburgh.
How to watch Virginia vs Pittsburgh
| Location | Petersen Events Center, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Monday, 2-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Virginia vs Pittsburgh key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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