The Pac-12 Tournament kicks off from Las Vegas, Nevada, with four first-round matchups on tap for today.
The tournament opener features No. 8 seed Washington (16-15, 8-12 Pac-12) and No. 9 seed Colorado (16-15, 8-12 Pac-12).
Tad Boyle’s Buffaloes look for a strong end to the season after finishing sub-.500 in-conference for the first time in five seasons, while Mike Hopkins’ Huskies faltered to end the year with just three wins in their last nine chances.
Which team will earn the first victory of the 2023 Pac-12 Mens Basketball Tournament? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Washington vs. Colorado on Wednesday, March 8 to find out.
Washington vs Colorado best odds
Washington vs Colorado picks and predictions
Pac-12 tournament action begins with a tight game on paper between the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds — two teams with identical records at 16-15.
Washington swept the season series against Colorado, winning 73-63 at home back on December 4 and then notching a narrow 75-72 victory on the road on January 19. It was the first time since 2019 that the Huskies swept the Buffaloes.
Mike Hopkins’ side checks in at 105th overall in KenPom, ranking 171st in offensive efficiency and 65th in defensive efficiency. It’s clear to see that this team’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball, where it limits opponents to 41.5% from the field.
Kentucky transfer Keion Brooks leads the team with 17.8 ppg en route to being named All-Conference Second team. Braxton Meah, a 7-1 center from Fresno, was named to the All-Defense team while guard Keyon Menifield was selected with All-Freshman honors.
Colorado had a mightily disappointing season. Typically a consistent presence in the upper parts of the Pac-12 standings under Boyle, the Buffaloes whimpered out with their worst showing since the 2017-18 season. They’ll look to tack on a few more victories to the resume to avoid a losing season for the first time since 2014-15.
This team lacks elite talent, although Tristan Da Silva (15.9 ppg) and KJ Simpson (15.9 ppg) have taken on an increasingly large offensive burden as the season progresses. The Buffs seem to end the regular season on a high note with a 69-60 victory over rival Utah, although the ensuing bad news certainly put a damper on things. Simpson has been announced out for the tournament after contracting mono.
The Buffs might find it difficult to find easy baskets against a respectable Huskies defense that limited them to an average of 67.5 points in the two regular-season matchups. Losing Simpson will certainly hurt, as he leads the attack. Colorado hasn’t found much success shooting the ball anyway this season, ranking 254th in two-point shooting (49.2%) and 316th in 3-point shooting.
Washington is a limited defensive team outside of Brooks. This isn’t an easy matchup against a stout Buffaloes defense ranking 16th in defensive efficiency — by far the highest of any unit on the floor.
Colorado is 18-13 to the Under this season and I will be backing that to continue with its lead point guard out for the tournament.
My best bet: Under 138.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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Washington vs Colorado spread analysis
The spread is currently set between Colorado -3.5 and -4.5 depending on the book.
Even without Simpson, it’s not difficult to see why Colorado is favored when taking a look at the advanced numbers. The Buffaloes rank nearly twice as high on KenPom (56th) than the Huskies (105th). Losing Simpson is a huge blow, but the defense should still be the best unit on the floor and there is a revenge angle after dropping both of the regular season games.
The reason I am staying away from making a play on the side is that this Colorado team has been very disappointing this season. Trying to catch the falling knife has been a dangerous venture for bettors, as the Buffs are an ugly 13-17-1 ATS this season.
If you’re a trends bettor, then you might be giving Washington a look. The Huskies have covered in four straight neutral site games. This season they are 9-3-1 ATS in games played away from home, whereas Colorado is just 5-9-1 ATS outside of Boulder.
Washington vs Colorado Over/Under analysis
The total hasn’t moved since opening between 138 and 138.5 depending on the location.
Just how much of a struggle has it been for Colorado offensively this season? Boyle’s team ranks 218th in points per game (69.9) despite playing at a fast pace, ranking 88th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. It can’t shoot from distance (31.6%) and also can’t convert at the charity stripe, ranking just 276th in free-throw percentage (69.1%).
Washington has a respectable defense, surrendering 70.2 ppg despite playing at a fast pace as well (73rd in adjusted tempo). The Huskies have a knack for disallowing easy looks, ranking 54th in field-goal defense (41.5%) and 16th in 3-point percentage (29.8%).
The Huskies are nothing special offensively, scoring 69.2 ppg while ranking 268th in field goal shooting (43.1%) and 323rd in 3-point shooting. Brooks is the lone dependable option and no player on the team is shooting better than 35.4% from behind the arc.
Washington vs Colorado betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in Colorado’s last six games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Washington vs. Colorado.
Washington vs Colorado game info
| Conference: | Pac-12 Round 1 |
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 8, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Pac-12 Network |
