West Virginia vs Iowa State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Back Road Dog Mountaineers to Cover

Two struggling Big 12 teams will look to right the ship on Monday night when the West Virginia Mountaineers visit the Iowa State Cyclones.

West Virginia (16-13) has lost four of its last five and has fallen dangerously close to the bubble for the NCAA tournament. No. 23 Iowa State (17-11) has dropped seven of its last nine after once being near the top of the conference standings.

The Mountaineers won the first meeting between these teams, and getting the season sweep would be a huge boost to their March Madness odds hopes.

We’ll look at their chances in our college basketball betting picks for West Virginia vs. Iowa State below.

West Virginia vs Iowa State best odds

West Virginia vs Iowa State picks and predictions

If you’re looking for a team in good form to back in tonight’s game, you’ll need to look elsewhere. Both of these teams are struggling mightily, and while they both have the talent to win games in the NCAA Tournament, neither has had much success of late.

Part of that is due to the brutal Big 12 schedule, which is the toughest conference test in the country. While West Virginia has lost four of five, three of those defeats came against teams currently ranked in the Top 10 of the AP Poll, with the most recent being a 2-point road loss against No. 3 Kansas.

Iowa State’s story has been similar, though it has also struggled against some of the weaker teams in the conference. The Cyclones have recently suffered defeats at No. 14 Kansas State and No. 8 Texas. However, their most recent loss came at home to Oklahoma, a sub-.500 team that sits at the bottom of the Big 12 standings.

It’s a testament to the strength of schedule these schools have been playing that KenPom still lists both among the Top 25 teams in the country. To many fans, the more surprising of these rankings would be West Virginia at No. 20, despite the fact that this team could still slip out of the NCAA tournament field.

The Mountaineers are far better than their record suggests. West Virginia boasts a balanced offense with five players who are scoring over nine points per game. All five of those players also spread the floor, as they all shoot at least 29.5% from 3-point range. The Mountaineers have quality wins against TCU, Auburn, and — most relevant for tonight’s game — a win over the Cyclones earlier this month.

In that first meeting, West Virginia shot 42.1% from beyond the arc against a tough Iowa State defense. Senior guard Kedrian Johnson led the way with 22 points. The Mountaineers put up 76 points against the Cyclones, the most any team has scored against Iowa State this month.

Iowa State should be able to control the pace better at home, slowing the game down a bit. The Cyclones give up just 62 points per game, forcing teams into low-scoring slogs more often than not while playing at one of the slowest paces in the country.

They might be successful in that approach on Monday night, but even if they are, that means a close game against a team that rates very similarly on the advanced metrics. West Virginia’s record may not be impressive, but the Mountaineers can beat good teams outright, and have already done it to Iowa State. 

The Cyclones come in as the favorite tonight, but they’re laying too many points in a game there’s no guarantee they’ll win. I’m taking West Virginia and the points.

My best bet: West Virginia +5 (-110 at DraftKings)

West Virginia vs Iowa State spread analysis

Iowa State opened as a 3.5-point favorite in tonight’s game. That line has moved further in the Cyclones’ favor, and as of noon on Monday, the consensus spread is now Iowa State -5. 

Both of these teams have been mediocre against the spread this season. West Virginia is 14-15 ATS, while Iowa State is dead even at 14-14 against the number on the year.

However, these two teams are headed in very different directions when it comes to how they're treating bettors right now. The Mountaineers have covered in their last two games, easily beating Oklahoma State before hanging close enough at Kansas to cover a huge 9.5-point spread. 

On the other hand, Iowa State has gone just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. This coincides with the team’s general slide, as they’ve also lost seven of those games outright. In three of their last five, the Cyclones have lost by double digits against the spread.

Most recently, ISU dropped a game at home by 11 points to Oklahoma. There’s no indication that the Cyclones are playing well enough to justify being a 5-point favorite over a team as good as West Virginia, which is probably being dinged because of its poor record. Take the Mountaineers and the points.

West Virginia vs Iowa State Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 135.5. That number has come down slightly, with the consensus Over/Under sitting at 134.5 at the time of this writing.

I’ll say right off the top here that I’m staying far, far away from this market. These two teams play very different styles of basketball, and both have been playing far away from tonight’s number in opposite directions.

Iowa State has hit the Under in five straight games. All five of those games have come in with totals of under 130, and three of them have been lower than 120. Meanwhile, West Virginia has hit the Over in seven of nine games and has gone above 135 in 10 straight contests.

If I was absolutely forced to bet on this market, I’d bet the Over. These two teams combined for 147 points in the first game, and the Mountaineers have been the more consistent team in terms of dictating the pace and playing to higher scores.

However, with Iowa State’s propensity for grinding games to a halt, and with the Cyclones playing at home, I have no confidence at all in the score of tonight’s game. I’m not placing any bets on the total here.

West Virginia vs Iowa State betting trend to know

Iowa State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games. Find more college basketball betting trends for West Virginia vs. Iowa State.

West Virginia vs Iowa State game info

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