Texas Tech has had a disappointing season, as it came into the season in the Top 25 but will arrive at the Big 12 Tournament needing to win to make March Madness.
West Virginia has started to simmer down the stretch and looks like a dangerous team. It won three of its last four games to finish the regular season and played itself onto the bubble.
What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for West Virginia vs. Texas Tech.
West Virginia vs Texas Tech best odds
West Virginia vs Texas Tech picks and predictions
These teams are going in opposite directions and will likely have a different approach heading into this game. I'm backing West Virginia to parlay that into a first-half burst, and because of that, we'll be grabbing the first-half line.
West Virginia coach Bob Huggins sounded calm and confident about this matchup when he spoke with the media on Monday, expressing the need to guard.
I agree, and I expect the Mountaineers to have success guarding Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have been easy to guard for much of the season. They did finish the season averaging 73 points per game, however, some underlying metrics are troubling. They split the season series, with Tech winning in Lubbock and West Virginia returning the favor in Morgantown.
Texas Tech got a whooping 36 shots at the rim in that second meeting. That feels like an outlier, but more importantly, it's not an area of the floor where Tech has had a ton of success. The Red Raiders have been just average on post-ups, shooting 44% there. That's the fourth-worst mark in the Big 12, and this is where it becomes easy for West Virginia to guard them.
The Red Raiders pose virtually a non-existent threat from beyond the arc, so you don't have to worry about defending them there. Thus, they become pretty easy to guard for a West Virginia defense that is typically strong around the rim.
Aside from what happens on that end of the floor, motivation is one of the most significant advantages in this game and my reasoning for backing the first-half line.
You have a team in West Virginia that knows it's likely one win away from a tournament bid. You can't underestimate that aspect. Notably, when it contrasts so heavily with what's happening on the other side, with Texas Tech’s head coach suspended and the program in a fog.
Back West Virginia to come out hot with the aspiration of making the tournament at the forefront of its mind.
My best bet: West Virginia first-half -1.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
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West Virginia vs Texas Tech spread analysis
I expect West Virginia to win this game but I see more of an edge on the first-half spread.
West Virginia will have to look out for Texas Tech's cutting actions. The Raiders are an elite cutting team, and West Virginia has struggled to defend that this season. That's the only notable advantage I'm seeing here, whereas there are a ton more for West Virginia.
The Mountaineers possess an edge on the backboard and should be able to get a ton of clean looks. Texas Tech's no-middle defense has struggled, particularly against spot-up shooters. Opponents have scored 36% of the time on spot-up sets this season against Tech. That's the second worst in the Big 12 and an area I expect the likes of Erik Stevenson and Tre Mitchell to exploit.
West Virginia vs Texas Tech Over/Under analysis
I lean Over here.
Both previous matchups this season between the two teams went Over. While West Virginia should have plenty of success defending Texas Tech, it'll get a decent amount of offense from the aforementioned cutting sets.
On the other side, West Virginia has at least the potential to go nuclear from deep. That's a big feather in the cap for Over bettors.
Texas Tech games have gone Over in three of the last four overall and four of the previous five on neutral floors. Along with that, the Over is 5-1 in West Virginia's last six games following a win.
West Virginia vs Texas Tech betting trend to know
West Virginia is 4-0 ATS in its last four games. Find more college basketball betting trends for West Virginia vs. Texas Tech.
West Virginia vs Texas Tech game info
| Conference: | Big 12 Round 1 |
| Location: | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 8, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
