Wisconsin vs Michigan Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wolverines Hold Hepburn in Check Once More

Two teams hoping to keep alive their very slim hopes of reaching the NCAA tournament will square off on Sunday, with the Wisconsin Badgers traveling to Ann Arbor to face the Michigan Wolverines.

The Badgers won the first meeting just two weeks ago with a 64-59 win, a game where they were able to win despite not making a single basket in the final 10 minutes.

Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson was held to just 12 points, three of which came after halftime, and he'll be looking to have a better performance in what could be his final game at the Crisler Center should he decide to turn pro after the season.

This game is as close to a must-win for both teams as it gets if they want to secure an at-large bid come Selection Sunday. Who will come out on top and get a big win toward improving their resume?

We discuss that and more in our Wisconsin vs Michigan college basketball betting picks below.

Wisconsin vs Michigan best odds

Wisconsin vs Michigan picks and predictions

The first meeting between these two teams on Valentine’s Day was anything but a love letter to college basketball fans. It was an ugly display of basketball, as neither team managed to make more than 33% from beyond the arc and combined to make just 37.4% of their shots from the field.

It was a particularly rough night for Wisconsin guards Chucky Hepburn and Max Klesmit. The two wings combined to make four of their 20 attempts from the floor for just 12 points. Klesmit did manage to make a pair of 3-pointers in the win, but Connor Essegian was the main man with 23 points including nine from the charity stripe.

Hepburn’s poor performance was a bit of a shock. He had come into the game scoring at least 15 points in each of Wisconsin’s previous five contests, hitting 15 of his 35 attempts from beyond the arc in that stretch, but he struggled mightily with the length of Michigan’s backcourt and managed just one basket on nine shots.

That game has triggered a bit of a slump for the sophomore guard. He followed that game up with a 6-point effort in the loss to Rutgers, making a pair of 3-pointers as he made just two of his seven efforts from the floor.

This week in the 12-point win over Iowa, he rebounded a bit with 12 points on 44% shooting, but he made just one of his four efforts from downtown.

Michigan’s defense has been one of its biggest strengths of late, as the Wolverines have won five of their last seven games. In that seven-game span, only five guards have managed to score more than 12 points – and they’ve typically not been the other team’s primary ball-handler.

Hepburn is averaging just 12.4 points a game this season, but that number is over 13 points in conference road games. However, he managed just eight against Indiana and three against Maryland.

Much like Michigan, those two teams had plenty of length in the backcourt, and they too locked him down and prevented him from getting many open looks.

Kobe Bufkin will likely be tasked with defending Hepburn a fair amount, much as he did in the first meeting. His 6-foot-4 frame will be problematic, especially for a Wisconsin team that ranks 11th in the nation in the percentage of points coming from beyond the arc.

Take the Under on Hepburn as Michigan holds him under 12 points once again.

My best bet: Chucky Hepburn Under 11.5 points (-115 at Caesars)

Wisconsin vs Michigan spread analysis

Wisconsin hasn't been a very good offensive team this season, ranking 324th in scoring offense and averaging just 12 assists per game.

The Badgers rank 262nd in effective field goal percentage and rely quite a bit on outside shooting with their 8.4 made threes per game ranking 63rd in the nation. However, they make up for it by playing solid defense and slowing down the game, allowing just 53.8 shot attempts per game and not letting teams get to the free throw line.

The Wolverines haven't been a whole lot better offensively, but they do rank 132nd in effective field goal percentage. But their defense is stellar and they rank 19th in defensive rebounds per game.

They also block 4.5 shots per contest. Dickinson has eight games with multiple blocks but has none in his last two games. Michigan is hopeful that Jett Howard will be available for the game, but he will likely be a game-time decision.

Michigan has won 11 of its 15 games at home this season, including seven of nine in conference play. Only top-ranked Purdue and 18th-ranked Indiana have come in and taken a win in Big Ten play. Wisconsin is 3-5 away from home this season and hasn’t played a road game since February 11.

That’s likely why the Covers Consensus is heavily on Michigan’s side. 69% of the public picks and 53% of the money has come in on the Wolverines to not only win but to cover the 5-point spread. Wisconsin hasn’t covered in its last eight games following a win, while Michigan has covered in six of its last nine at home.

Wisconsin vs Michigan Over/Under analysis

The total of 129.5 points for this contest is 6.5 more than what was scored in the earlier meeting, where Wisconsin didn’t make a basket in the final 10:29 of the game. However, the low number makes sense, given how well both teams defend.

Perhaps, more important, is the fact that neither team allows easy transition baskets. Both teams rank in the 11 best in college basketball in steals allowed per game, with both giving up fewer than five per contest. They also both rank in the Top 11 in turnovers committed per game, with just a combined 18.6 between them.

Wisconsin relies quite a bit on outside shooting, and if those aren’t falling, it could be a rough afternoon. Michigan holds teams to below 35% from beyond the arc, and the Badgers rank near the bottom of college basketball in 2-point shots outside the paint.

Michigan’s ability to protect the rim will be crucial in holding this total down. Wisconsin isn’t allowing much inside, either, ranking in the Top 25 in defensive efficiency this season.

The Covers Consensus is somewhat split on the total, with 55% of the public picks on the Over but 54% of the money is on the Under.

The trends don’t help much, either; the Under is 8-2-1 in Michigan’s last 11 games against winning teams, but the Over is 4-1 in Michigan’s last five games at home.  

Wisconsin vs Michigan betting trend to know

The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Michigan.

Wisconsin vs Michigan game info

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