The college basketball betting board for Monday is headlined by a Big Ten clash between the No. 23-ranked Wisconsin Badgers and the No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue has lost just one game this season and comes into this contest as a massive 12.5-point home favorite.
Here are our best free Wisconsin vs. Purdue betting picks and predictions for NCAA basketball action on Monday, January 3, with tipoff at 7 p.m. ET.
Wisconsin vs Purdue odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line for this game opened with Purdue at -12 and the Over/Under at 139. As of this writing, the line has grown ever so slightly to Purdue -12.5 while the total has ticked up to 140.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Wisconsin vs Purdue predictions
Predictions made on 01/03/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Wisconsin vs Purdue game info
• Location: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
• Date: Monday, January 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Big Ten Network
Wisconsin at Purdue betting preview
Key Injuries
Wisconsin: None.
Purdue: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Boilermakers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Purdue.
Wisconsin vs Purdue picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Purdue entered this season with high expectations after returning all five starters and more than 90% of all minutes played from last year's 18-10 squad. The Boilermakers have not disappointed, jumping out to a 12-1 start to the season, which includes wins over North Carolina and Villanova.
Guard Jaden Ivey leads Purdue with 16.7 points per game, while 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey (14.9 ppg on 72.8 percent shooting) and 6-foot-10 power forward Trevion Williams (13.3 ppg and a team-leading 9.1 rebounds per game) give the Boilermakers a dominant pair of big men. The Boilermakers are first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom, while ranking 60th on the defensive side of the ball.
Wisconsin is 10-2 straight up with its biggest victory coming on neutral ground against 12th-ranked Houston. Stat-stuffing sophomore Johnny Davis leads the team with 20.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game while senior guard Brad Davison chips in with 14.5 ppg.
Those are Wisconsin's only two players averaging double-digit points. As a team, the Badgers rank a modest 51st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.
That said, they have played very tough on the defensive end of the floor despite coming off a game where they allowed tiny Illinois State to score 85 points on 50% shooting. Despite that rare off-night, the Badgers rank 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency and use their length and physicality to great effect.
The Badgers also typically play at a very slow pace and rank 297th in adjusted tempo after ranking outside the Top 300 in that category in their first seven years under head coach Greg Gard. If they limit possessions, it will be tough for Purdue to cover this large spread, especially when you consider that the Boilermakers have only covered once in their last six games as a favorite.
It's fair to question whether Wisconsin has the firepower to keep pace with Purdue, and winning at Mackey Arena is always tough, but with the Badgers' defensive chops and general strong play on the road (5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games in hostile territory), they should be able to keep this closer than the spread suggests.
Prediction: Wisconsin +12.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
We mentioned that the Badgers play at a very slow pace. Well, the Boilermakers don't run at a fast clip, either, ranking 201st in adjusted tempo. That said, with how efficient they have been on offense, the total of 140 looks a bit too low.
Purdue has tons of scoring depth and can shoot the ball well from every spot on the floor, which makes defending the Boilermakers very tough. They are third in the country with a two-point field goal percentage of 59.1 while ranking fifth with a sizzling 41.1 3PT%.
However, they have shown flaws on defense and have a history of playing higher-scoring contests at home, going 25-11 O/U in their last 36 games in West Lafayette. They have also cashed the Over in four straight games against teams with a winning record, which happens to be identical to Wisconsin's 4-0 O/U mark in its last four games against winning teams.
The Over has also gone 13-6 in the Badgers' last 19 games overall, suggesting that oddsmakers might be a tad too critical of their shooting woes and slower pace. Take the Over.
Prediction: Over 140 (-110)
Best bet
Purdue jumped to the top of the polls after they beat UNC and Villanova on back-to-back nights in November. In hindsight, those victories aren't all that impressive. The Tar Heels have fallen out of the Top 25 after ugly losses to Tennessee and Kentucky, while 'Nova has lost four games and isn't quite the juggernaut that many thought it would be at the start of the season.
The Boilermakers have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games, which includes a road loss to Rutgers and a trip to overtime with 7-7 North Carolina State.
As for the Badgers, they might be better than they are being credited by the media. Their victory against Houston was impressive and they were without Johnny Davis for their five-point loss to Providence. While their only other loss was a devastating 18-point defeat in Columbus, it's worth mentioning that, besides Davis, the team shot a pathetic 11 for 43 (25.6 FG%) from the field in that game.
As cold as the Badgers' outside shooting can be at times, they typically hit their shots at a better clip and rarely turn the ball over. They should be more competitive tonight.
Pick: Wisconsin +12.5 (-110)
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