Xavier vs DePaul Odds, Picks and Predictions: X Marks the Spot in Big East

The Xavier Musketeers will be looking to start the Big East Tournament on the right foot when they take on the DePaul Blue Demons at Madison Square Garden on Thursday.

DePaul (10-22) scored its first win since mid-January on Wednesday when it came from behind to beat the Seton Hall Pirates 66-65 in the tournament’s opening round. No. 15 Xavier (23-8) earned a first-round bye after finishing second in the conference with a 15-5 league record.

The Blue Demons find themselves overmatched in terms of talent in this matchup, though they beat the Musketeers earlier this season. We’ll examine whether they have a shot at a second upset in our college basketball picks and predictions for DePaul vs. Xavier on March 9.

Xavier vs DePaul best odds

Xavier vs DePaul picks and predictions

DePaul pulled off one of the biggest upsets in the Big East this season when it scored a 73-72 home win over Xavier back in January. Senior guard Umoja Gibson led the Blue Demons with 22 points, as DePaul took a lead in the first half and then held on down the stretch to beat the Musketeers.

The biggest problem for DePaul heading into Thursday’s matchup is that there’s literally nothing else about this season that suggests it has any way of competing with Xavier. In their more recent matchup, the Musketeers cruised to a 14-point victory at home. Outside of these two contests, there’s simply no comparison between the teams.

Xavier operates one of the most efficient, high-scoring offenses in the country. The Musketeers are averaging 82.1 points per game, and are among the top shooting teams in the nation. They have made precisely 50% of their shots this season, including a blistering 39.8% from 3-point range, both figures that rank within the Top 5 nationally.

On the other side of this equation, DePaul hasn’t been able to stop anyone, let alone the elite offenses in the country. The Blue Demons allow 77.3 points per game, and heading into the Big East Tournament, six of their last seven opponents had gone over the 80 mark, including Xavier.

DePaul did manage to finally snap a 12-game losing streak on Wednesday with its win over Seton Hall. But that victory came against a defensive-minded squad that is only mediocre on the offensive end. The Pirates are a far cry from the Musketeers, who have been torching opposing defenses all season long.

The biggest issue for the Blue Demons is that this won’t be as simple as clamping down on one or two players. While senior guard Souley Boum (16.8 ppg) leads the way for the Musketeers, Xavier has five players who score in double figures, including four that are averaging at least 14 points per game. Each of the top four scoring Musketeers shoots at least 40% from beyond the arc, and three of them are shooting at least 52% from the field overall. Even with the loss of Zach Freemantle, Xavier will never be wanting for offensive weapons.

You can look at the first two meetings between these teams and come up with a case that DePaul can at least keep this game close. I’m not inclined to believe in that small sample when the overall picture of this season shows something very different. Xavier may be laying double digits in this game, but I expect the Musketeers to win this one in a walk.

My best bet: Xavier -12 (-110 at PointsBet)

Xavier vs DePaul spread analysis

The spread on tonight’s matchup opened at Xavier -12. The majority of sites have since gone to DePaul +12.5 as the main line, though you can still find the spread without the hook as of noon on Thursday.

Xavier has not only been the better team all year long, but also the better side against the spread. The Musketeers are 17-13-1 ATS, while DePaul is 13-18-1 ATS on the year.

Like I said earlier, I’m not particularly convinced by DePaul’s performances against Xavier this season. In fact, looking at the second game shows that it was even more one-sided than the final score indicates. The Musketeers were up 22 points at the half before calling off the dogs and letting the Blue Demons make the final look a bit more palatable in the second half.

There may be some sentiment towards DePaul in this one due to the fact that it finally broke its long losing streak on Wednesday. But the Blue Demons had to play a tough game against a solid defensive opponent, and now will have to play a far superior team on no rest. Everything lines up for a blowout tonight, so even with a very large spread, the smart play is to back Xavier to cover.

Xavier vs DePaul Over/Under analysis

The total for this game started at 153 points. We haven’t seen much movement, with most sites moving the Over/Under just a half-point. That has gone in different directions, however, with some sites going to 152.5 and others moving up to 153.5. 

Both regular season matchups between these teams came in below this total. However, we know that Xavier can score. Perhaps more importantly, neither of these teams plays much defense, with Xavier allowing 74.5 points per game themselves.

The Musketeers have played to the Over all season long. The Over is 20-10-1 in Xavier games this season, and has hit in each of its last three outings. The Musketeers are playing to an average total of 156.6 points this year.

Yet Xavier has only three games in its last 10 that would have gone over tonight’s total. And considering that these two teams have hit the Under twice already this season, I’m leaning towards not playing the total tonight. Overall, I think there are more reasons to play the Under, but Xavier’s style and DePaul’s shoddy defense have me wary about counting on another low-scoring game.

Xavier vs DePaul betting trend to know

DePaul is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Xavier vs. DePaul.

Xavier vs Seton Hall game info

Xavier vs DePaul key injuries

Pages related to this topic