Xavier vs Marquette Odds, Picks and Predictions: Too Tall a Total in Brew Town

The top two teams in the Big East will face off for the second time this season when the Xavier Musketeers visit the Marquette Golden Eagles on Wednesday night.

No. 16 Xavier (19-6) won the first meeting between these teams on its home court a month earlier. No. 11 Marquette (20-6) has won six of seven since that loss.

Both the Musketeers and the Golden Eagles know how to score points, and oddsmakers have set an astronomical total on this game. We’ll look at whether these teams can hit the mark in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Xavier vs. Marquette on Wednesday, February 15. 

Xavier vs Marquette best odds

Xavier vs Marquette picks and predictions

Xavier and Marquette boast two of the best offenses in the country. Both teams play at an up-tempo pace, with the Musketeers going particularly fast. Each club complements that with elite efficiency on the offensive end, with Ken Pomeroy rating Marquette third and Xavier fifth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

The result is a whole lot of scoring. Xavier puts up 83.2 points per game, while Marquette averages 81.2 per night. And while these teams aren’t awful on defense on a per-possession basis, they both allow opponents to hit back pretty hard. The Musketeers give up 75.7 ppg, while Marquette allows an average of 70.7 ppg. 

What happens when you get two teams that are so heavily tilted towards offense? You get an Over/Under that’s as high as 161.5 at some sites. That’s easily the highest total of the night, and one of the higher numbers you’ll see all season.

That’s not to say that these teams can’t hit that total. Earlier this month, Xavier went over a total of 165 in a 96-71 win over the St. John’s Red Storm. They’ve gone over 160 total points in four of their last six games. Marquette doesn’t attract numbers quite that outlandish in general, but they hit a total of 164 in their 89-75 win over the Georgetown Hoyas on Saturday.

None of that changes the fact that 161.5 is a big number. And there are reasons to suspect that these teams won’t get there on Wednesday night.

For instance, we can look at the last meeting between these teams. In a tightly-played contest, Xavier came out on top by an 80-76 final. That’s a total of “only” 156, which came up short of the 163 Over/Under books had set on that night. 

As I said earlier, these teams — particularly Marquette — do not play that poorly on defense once you adjust for their pace of play. The Golden Eagles have only played to a total of 160 or higher six times in 26 games this year, while Xavier has gotten there 12 times in 25 outings. That’s nothing to sneeze at, but these are not teams that automatically play games in the 80s or 90s every single night.

I think it’s telling that sportsbooks opened this game with a lower total, and it is only the public that has bet this number up over the 160 mark. These teams are capable of hitting any Over, but this total should be several points lower than it currently stands, and that’s too much value to turn down. I’m on the Under tonight.

My best bet: Under 161.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Xavier vs Marquette spread analysis

Marquette opened tonight’s game as a 5.5-point favorite. That’s still the consensus line, though some sites have moved to Marquette -6 as their main spread.

The Golden Eagles have been great ATS this year, putting up a 17-8-1 mark. Xavier hasn’t been half bad either, going 13-11-1 ATS on the season.

Xavier won a tight battle at home in the first meeting between these teams, and it makes sense that Marquette now gets to be the favorite on its home court, where it is 13-1 on the season. The spread may seem a bit surprising, but the Golden Eagles have been the better team over the last few weeks, with the Musketeers coming off a disappointing loss to the 13-14 Butler Bulldogs on Friday. That’s a notable change from the first game, when Xavier’s victory served as the culmination of an 11-game winning streak.

At this point in the season, Marquette rates out as the better team, particularly on the defensive end of the court. Xavier’s struggles on the defensive end have cost them in close games to Butler, the DePaul Blue Demons, and earlier non-conference clashes with the Indiana Hoosiers and Gonzaga Bulldogs. 

While I think the total is the better play, I’m also on Marquette -5.5 tonight. When a superior team is playing at home, that’s a reasonable spread, especially in a fairly high-scoring game where those points won’t be as hard to come by.

Xavier vs Marquette Over/Under analysis

Sportsbooks initially posted a total of 159 on this game. However, that was quickly bet upwards, and the consensus Over/Under is now 161.5.

These teams have both played to the Over this season. In particular, the Over has gone 17-7-1 in Xavier’s games, though a 15-10-1 record for the Over in Marquette’s games isn’t too shabby, either.

However, those who are setting the college basketball odds seem to be catching up to these trends. The Over is a dead even 4-4 in the last eight games for both the Musketeers and the Golden Eagles. Generally, both teams have been playing to more reasonable totals in Big East play, which accounts for the more balanced results in Over/Under betting.

As I wrote above, this total is just too high for what’s really going on with these teams. Yes, these are both offensive-minded squads that are capable of putting up points, but that doesn’t mean they’ll automatically get to totals of 160 or more night after night. They didn’t get there in their first meeting, and both teams play the majority of their games below this total. 

This is a game between two elite teams who can step it up on the defensive end when they need to. That doesn’t mean they’ll shut each other down by a longshot, but we shouldn’t expect an out-of-control shootout, either. 

Based on what we saw in the first game and how both teams have played against their Big East competition, the Under is the clear play here.

Xavier vs Marquette betting trend to know

The Under is 3-0-1 in Marquette’s last four games against teams with winning records. Find more college basketball betting trends for Xavier vs. Marquette.

Xavier vs Marquette game info

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