Saturday's Big East matchup between the Xavier Musketeers (17-8, 7-7) and the No. 24 UConn Huskies (18-7, 9-5) will feature two teams looking to get steady ground beneath them as the final month of regular season play concludes.
The Musketeers are losers of five of their last eight, including three of their last four. The Huskies have split their last six and are looking to avenge the six-point loss from two weeks ago to Xavier.
Continue reading for more free college basketball picks and analysis for Xavier vs. UConn for Saturday, February 19th.
Xavier vs UConn odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
UConn opened as 5.5-point favorites. The total opened at 140.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Xavier vs UConn predictions
Predictions made on 2/18/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Xavier vs UConn game info
• Location: Harry A. Gampel Pavillion, Storrs, CT
• Date: Saturday, February 19, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Xavier at UConn betting preview
Injuries
Xavier: Nate Johnson G (Questionable).
UConn: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
UConn is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven. Find more NCAA betting trends for Xavier vs. UConn.
Xavier vs UConn picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
After a 3-5 skid following a 14-3 start, Xavier finds itself outside of the AP Top 25 for the first time since early December. Its recent struggles have been particularly frustrating as seemingly random outlier performances have let otherwise close matchups slip through their fingers. A two-point road loss to Seton Hall was largely the product of Xavier surrendering 17 offensive rebounds, which is nearly twice its seasonal average. Paul Scruggs, Nate Johnson, and Adam Kunkel (all 34-39% 3-point shooters) combined to go 1-12 from deep in a three-point loss to Providence. Xavier managed to score all of three points in the opening 7.5 minutes of its game against DePaul, a game ended up losing by four.
That's not to say that the Musketeers haven't taken some deserved losses along the way. Their double-digit losses to St. John's, Marquette, and Villanova were good demonstrations of Xavier's potential ceiling, especially come conference tournament time and in its likely appearance in the Big Dance. Xavier ranks 38th overall in KenPom, which includes ranks of 41st in offense and 51st in defense. This type of "safeness" in its profile is likely what led to its 14-3 start, seeing as it really only beat one team firmly above its level (Ohio State) and its three losses came against Villanova (twice) and Iowa State, who it caught during its hot 12-0 start to the season.
Saturday's matchup with UConn provides intrigue for this exact reason. UConn is 18th overall in KenPom and profiles closest to Villanova (8th) and Ohio State (17th) in terms of Xavier's past opponents, but Xavier did just beat the Huskies a week ago by six at home. The Huskies shot a horrendous 38% from the field that night, marking the fourth time they fell below 40% as a team in the last seven games. Those poor offensive performances have been a large part of the Huskies' recent struggles, dropping three of their last six after a 15-5 start. Granted, this came amidst the toughest stretch of their schedule, having played No. 12 Villanova, No. 18 Marquette, and No. 25 Xavier in three straight games during that time.
Another wrinkle to Saturday's matchup is the status of Xavier's sharpshooter Nate Johnson. Johnson is the Musketeers' best weapon from the perimeter, shooting 39.4% from deep on 5.3 attempts per game (both team highs). He has been described as a true game-time decision by coach Travis Steele, and his absence has huge ramifications. No other player on the team shoots 35%+ from three and seeing as how Xavier already ranks 242nd in the nation in 3-point percentage and has the second-worst mark in Big East play (30.3%), that could spell trouble.
That's not to say Xavier would have an insurmountable gap to overcome if Johnson were to sit on Saturday. The Musketeers will still have Jack Nunge (13.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and Paul Scruggs (12.4 PPG) at their disposal. The two possess higher BPR metrics (Bayesian Performance Ratings via EvanMiya.com) than any of UConn's players and having the two best players on the floor in any given matchup is a massive advantage.
On top of that, Xavier has been tested more thoroughly this season than UConn. According to KenPom, Xavier has faced the 31st toughest conference schedule of any program and 130th toughest non-conference schedule compared to UConn's 48th and 263rd, respectively.
Prediction: Xavier +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Xavier has played to the Over four times in its last five, but when examining this matchup within its appropriate context there's more to consider. Prior to this recent run of Overs, the Musketeers had played 13-7 to the Under on the season. They also play to the Under rather well when the total creeps to 140 or higher, playing to a 2-6-1 record the nine times it has happened this year.
On top of that, Xavier has played to the Under 4-1 in the five conference rematches it has played this year. This is despite these rematches having had a total that is 3.6 points lower on average than the total of the original matchup. And when looking at how each offense stacks against the opposing defense at the three levels of the court in terms of field goal percentage, it matches up beautifully for an Under.
| At rim | 2-point jumpers | 3-point jumpers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UConn offense | 225th | 241st | 136th |
| Xavier defense | 57th | 162nd | 100th |
| Xavier offense | 84th | 76th | 242nd |
| UConn defense | 13th | 3rd | 222nd |
UConn is a bit lacking as a whole offensively, but Xavier's offensive strengths are inside the perimeter where UConn ranks 13th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim and 3rd on two-point jumpers. And again, if Nate Johnson misses this game it will further condense the floor towards the paint given Xavier's inability to space the floor adequately without him.
Prediction: Under 140.5 (-110)
Best bet
As it currently stands, Xavier is the team with more high-end talent and a more impressive strength of schedule and resulting resume. Using the NCAA's NET rankings, which will be used to determine tournament selections and seeds, Xavier currently possesses a 5-6 Quadrant 1 record to UConn's 2-6 record. Given that the matchup between the two on Saturday is a Quadrant 1 game for the two, that seems highly relevant.
When looking at the bigger picture, UConn seems overrated currently. The market supports that as well, given that the Huskies are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven. On top of that, Xavier won the first contest by six and while Saturday's game will take place at Gampel Pavilion this time, the proof is in the pudding. Add on to the fact that Xavier has been made out to be moderately sized underdogs, and it's hard to really argue that the value would be anywhere else but on the Musketeers.
Pick: Xavier +5.5 (-110)
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