Xavier vs Villanova Picks and Predictions: Musketeers Size Too Much For Wildcats

The Villanova Wildcats have taken their fair of punches already this season, but the size of the Xavier Musketeers may keep them coming on Tuesday.

Tonight will feature the Big East’s first conference matchup of the season between ranked teams with the No. 23-ranked Villanova hosting No. 18 Xavier. There is a lot more to this game and than what meets the eye — and plenty of college basketball betting value to boot.

Continue reading for our free picks and predictions for Villanova vs. Xavier on Tuesday, December 21.

Xavier vs Villanova odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Villanova opened at -6.5 at low limit market-making books and quickly was bet down to -5, which is where it currently sits. The total opened at 138 and has since moved to 136.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Xavier vs Villanova predictions

• Prediction: Xavier +5 (-103)
• Prediction: Under 136 (-107)
• Best bet: Xavier +5 (-103)

Predictions made on 12/21/2021 at 11:44 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Xavier vs Villanova game info

• Location: Finneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA
• Date: Tuesday, December 21, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1

Xavier at Villanova betting preview

Injuries

Xavier: None to report.
Villanova: none to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Villanova games have gone under the total in five of its last six. Find more NCAA betting trends for Xavier vs. Villanova.

Xavier vs Villanova picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

It’s not common that you see a 7-4 team in the AP Top 25 Poll, but that is exactly where you currently find 23rd-ranked Villanova — and for good reason. Three of its four losses have come against UCLA, Purdue, and Baylor with two losses being on the road. Purdue and Baylor have both occupied the No. 1 spot in the poll at some point and UCLA has reached as high as No. 2, and Villanova’s resume is boosted by the fact that the contests against UCLA and Purdue were single-digit affairs as well.

Quantitative-based rankings are even more forgiving of the Wildcats’ “failures”. KenPom has Villanova ranked 12th while having faced the 10th-toughest schedule and ESPN’s BPI has Villanova eighth while having the fourth-toughest schedule.

So what makes Villanova so good? Their success largely comes from two places: enviable team-level discipline and outstanding guard play.

They rank 52nd in committing personal fouls and eighth in limiting trips to the free-throw line. They rank fourth in turnovers surrendered, which largely comes from their stellar guard play. Taking care of the ball isn’t the only thing Villanova’s guards do well as Collin Gillespie (16.2 PPG, 41% from three) and Justin Moore (14.7 PPG, 36% 3PT) are highly capable scorers inside and out. Their proficiencies from three are particularly important as the Wildcats often push 3-point volume in games (14th in the nation).

For as good as their backcourt play is, their frontcourt’s lack of size has caused a lot of problems. The "big men's" inability to create has really limited high percentage shots near the rim, and the Wildcats take the 27th fewest 2-point attempts in the nation as a result. Defensive rebounding is always a massive uphill battle (238th), and these size-related struggles were perfectly illustrated in their three losses to UCLA, Purdue, and Baylor — all of whom have much larger and talented frontcourts — in which they posted a -33 rebound margin and allowed a 54% 2-point field goal percentage.

Xavier has the personnel to exploit this weakness between 6-foot-11, 245-pound forward Jack Nunge (13.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG) and 6-foot-9, 225-pound forward Zach Freemantle, who after easing back in from injury has averaged 12.3 PPG and 6.3 RPG. Sophomore guard Colby Jones also has a nose for the glass with 8.2 rebounds per game.

If we use Villanova’s first three losses as the blueprint, Xavier fits the build.

Prediction: Xavier +5 (-103)

Over/Under analysis

Much of this total simply lies in how well Villanova shoots from deep. If we ignore its last game, in which it shot 17.4% but the game still went Over due to the Wildcats allowing 79 points, Villanova has shot 46% from three in games that have gone Over and 33% in games that have gone Under.

The Wildcats have gone a bit cold as of late, shooting just 23% from three in their last three games. Making matters worse is that Xavier might not be the best team to hope to get hot against.

Although it ranks “just” 103rd on the season in 3-point percentage allowed, it's allowed just a 27% percentage over its last six games.

Prediction: Under 136 (-107)

Best bet

Unfortunately for Villanova, the structure of this matchup lends its hands to another loss against a quality opponent for the Wildcats to add to their resume.

Look for Xavier to use their size to pound the ball inside and control the glass and limit second chances (19th in the nation in defensive rebounding) and their recently improved perimeter defense to diminish the impact of Villanova’s barrage of threes.

Pick: Xavier +5 (-103)

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