MACtion on a Tuesday night is the best way to kick off Week 11, and we have a good one when the Ball State Cardinals (5-4) meet the Toledo Rockets (6-3).
Ball State is coming off a strong 27-20 away win over Kent State, while Toledo won on the road over Eastern Michigan 27-24.
Who will win this MAC clash? Read our college football picks and predictions for Ball State vs. Toledo below.
Ball State vs Toledo best odds
Ball State vs Toledo picks and predictions
With this being a battle for first place in the MAC West, getting the Ball State Cardinals as 11.5-point underdogs is too good to let slide. They have a two-pronged offensive attack that should provide enough production to hang around.
Ball State RB Carson Steele is eighth in the country in rushing and has scampered for 100+ yards in each of his past four, including 192 yards and a TD at Kent State. Toledo is sixth in the MAC in rushing yards and 11th in rushing TDs allowed, and Steele should dent the Rockets' defense.
Cardinals QB John Paddock is in a groove and leads the conference's third-best passing attack. Paddock threw for 254 yards with a pair of TDs in the upset over Kent State. The junior is 32nd in passing yards but has also thrown 10 picks, including one last week. He faces a stiff test against the conference's best passing defense that's also recorded eight interceptions.
Toledo has one of the top offenses in the country and leads the conference in points, TDs, and several other categories. Sophomore QB Dequann Finn is questionable for this clash and missed last week's away win over EMU. Freshman QB Tucker Gleason threw for 238 yards and three scoring strikes in his absence.
Rockets RB Jacquez Stuart is their top rusher, but Toledo also relies on Finn on the ground, with the injured QB leading the team in rushing TDs with an additional 502 yards on the ground. Gleason scooted for 33 yards against EMU, but he’s not as mobile and won’t hurt Ball State as Finn would. Ball State has the worst rushing defense in the conference and allowed 225 yards last week to Kent State.
Tuesday marks a big game for both teams. A Ball State victory gives the Cardinals a share of the MAC West and one win closer to a bowl invite. Meanwhile, a Toledo triumph gives them a two-game lead in the conference and likely ensures a postseason appearance.
Finn makes a difference, but the Cardinals should cover the spread either way. Steele has dominated the MAC this season and crushed Kent State for nearly 200 rushing yards. He has a good matchup against a leaky Rockets rushing defense running behind an offensive line that will control the line of scrimmage. Paddock is the third-best passer in the MAC, and he has a couple of solid weapons, but he’ll need to be careful against an opportunistic and stingy Toledo passing defense.
The Rockets' offense revolves around Finn and isn’t as potent with Gleason behind center. The frosh QB is less mobile, and the Rockets will be forced to win this game with his arm. That doesn’t bode well for Toledo and suits Ball State with its more stout passing defense.
The Rockets should still come out on top but 11.5 points are too many.
My best bet: Ball State +11.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Ball State vs Toledo spread analysis
I’m leaning toward a Ball State upset Tuesday but that depends on Finn's availability. If the Rockets' signal-caller doesn’t suit up, I'm taking a shot on them at +330 or better.
Ball State has two solid receivers in WR Jayshon Jackson and TE Tanner Koziol. Jackson hauled 10 passes for 102 yards and a TD, while Koziol leads the team in TD receptions. Koziol is on the injury report but did play last week while also being on the list, catching six balls for 68 yards and a TD.
We have two opportunistic defenses but neither side has a positive turnover margin. Ball State has won its last three games as an underdog outright and has also won two of the last three meetings with Toledo.
Ball State vs Toledo Over/Under analysis
The 51.5-point total is too high. Lean towards the Under in what should be a tense environment.
As mentioned at the onset, a Ball State moves into a tie for first in the MAC West while a Toledo win ensures the Rockets will play in Detroit for the MAC title. Both teams have turnover issues, and the added nerves could cause an untimely turnover or two.
Both sides have terrific rushing games and especially so if Finn plays, but neither offense dominates the clock as both average under 28:24 minutes.
Rockets junior wideout Jerjuan Newton has 557 receiving yards with seven TDs but was targetted once last week for 35 yards and a TD.
Advanced metrics show Toledo is 17th in the country in first-down percentage allowed per offensive drive DVOA and 20 first downs per game. Ball State is 81st in the country in first-down DVOA and No. 122 with 25 first downs allowed per contest.
The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and 5-0 over the last five at Toledo.
Ball State vs Toledo betting trend to know
The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Toledo. Find more NCAA betting trends for Ball State vs. Toledo.
Ball State vs Toledo game info
| Location: | Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, November 8, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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Ball State vs Toledo weather
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