Arguably the top matchup in Week 2 of the college football season goes down Saturday night in Provo as the No. 9 Baylor Bears head to Provo to take on the No. 21 BYU Cougars. It will be the only game of the week featuring two ranked teams.
Dave Aranda led Baylor to a Big 12 championship in 2021 and seeks to prove that the program is here to stay at an elite level. As for BYU, Kalani Sitake led the team to 10 wins a year ago including a notable 6-0 record against the Pac-12.
Who will take this game between two future Big 12 rivals? Find out in our college football betting picks and predictions for Baylor vs. BYU.
Baylor vs BYU best odds
Baylor vs BYU picks and predictions
Make no mistake about it: this is a great game between two high-level programs. Both have high expectations heading into 2022 and both are justified in that belief.
BYU won 10 games a year ago and returns just about everybody from that team. The Cougars have 19 returning starters in total and rank second in returning production. Jaren Hall is back as an emerging star at quarterback and 90 career starts return to one of the best offensive lines in the country.
I understand the optimism for BYU, I really do — this is a veteran, well-coached team with gobs of talent that is solid on both lines of scrimmage. This line being over a field goal at some books, however, is selling Baylor a bit short.
If Dave Aranda doesn’t have a reputation as one of the best coaches in America yet, then he should. The Bears fell to 2-7 in his first year as head coach in 2020, but that was quite clearly a rebuilding year — and rebuild they did, winning 12 games and a Big 12 Championship a season ago.
The Bears do lose a lot from last year, returning six starters in total. I think it’d be foolish to count them out this year, however. They’re going to be very strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball, as the offensive line returns four starters and 119 career starts, while the defensive seven features stars like defensive tackle Siaki Ika (second-team All-Big 12) and linebackers Dillon Doyle (145 tackles), and Matt Jones (7.5 tackles for loss).
Aranda is one of the best defensive minds in the game and should have the requisite players up front to keep BYU from imposing its will on the ground. The Bears have a huge defensive edge over BYU, who struggled on that side of the ball a year ago while allowing 388 total yards per game.
These teams met in Waco last year in a game that Baylor dominated. The Bears held a 31-14 advantage heading into the fourth quarter and ultimately won 38-24.
I don’t believe enough has changed from a year ago to install the Cougars as -3.5 favorites, so I’m playing the underdog in this one.
My best bet: Baylor +3.5 (-115 at WynnBET)
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Baylor vs BYU betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
Aranda made a bold choice when he named Blake Shapen the starting quarterback after spring ball over incumbent Gerry Bohanon. It was a savvy, class move from Aranda as it allowed Bohanon to hit the transfer portal with enough time to realistically still win a starting job elsewhere — which he did at USF.
The move was a bit surprising to some considering that Bohanon started the majority of the year for a team that won 12 games and a Big 12 championship. Shapen looked excellent in the opening 61-10 win over Albany, completing 17 of 20 passes for 214 yards and two scores in a blowout win.
For a team missing all of its main receiving options from a year ago, it was nice to see Monaray Baldwin emerge as a potential leader among the group of new faces. The speedster caught four passes for 84 yards and a touchdown while adding two carries for 46 yards and another score on the ground. The veteran in the room, tight end Ben Sims, led the way with five receptions.
All in all, Baylor’s offense looks fine this season and may have even improved at quarterback. As we already established above, Baylor has the better defense of the two teams.
Both of BYU’s top receivers — Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua — are questionable to play on Saturday. Romney missed the opener against USF while Nacua suffered a foot injury after scoring two touchdowns on the ground early in the game. Nacua’s injury didn’t look like something that would be fully healed in one week, so even if he does play, he’ll be hobbled.
That’s big news considering one of the reasons the betting market is so high on the Cougars is the amount of returning production that they had coming into the year.
Over/Under analysis
BYU has one of the better offenses in the country. Jaren Hall had a mini-breakout season last year, throwing for 2,583 yards on 8.7 yards per attempt while tossing 20 touchdowns in ten games.
He’s a dual-threat that added another 307 yards and three scores on the ground. Folks in Provo are anticipating another step forward from Hall, who has displayed a lot of talent but could be a bit more consistent.
The running game was a great success a year ago, but the team loses running back Tyler Allgeier (1,800 total yards, 23 touchdowns) to the Atlanta Falcons. California transfer Christopher Brooks has the size and pass-catching chops to be a three-down back for this program and ran for 135 yards and a score in the opener.
He’ll be running behind a great offensive line that returns seven of its top eight from a year ago and adds a five-star Oregon transfer (tackle Kingsley Suamataia ).
Overall, this offense should keep clicking after racking up 452.2 total yards per game on 6.8 yards per play a year ago. Scoring 50 points in the opener against USF was an encouraging sign.
Baylor should be able to contribute to this total as Shapen has looked terrific in his limited reps at quarterback while the offensive line is the most experienced unit on the team.
The Cougars return a startling amount of production to a defense that was poor a year ago, so the verdict is still in the air regarding how much improvement they’ll show on that side of the ball in 2022.
All in all, this total feels too low as both teams should be able to score.
Baylor vs BYU game info
• Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 10:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
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Baylor vs BYU betting trend to know
Baylor is 4-0 against the spread in its last four non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. BYU.
