College Football Player Props and Best Bets for Championship Week: Boise State, UNLV Pass Defenses Get Pierced

Prop bet #1: "Funk Master" flexes on Cowboys

Looking at college football odds this weekend, the Texas Longhorns are supposed to roll in the Big 12 Championship. Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns are up to -15.5 to defeat Mike Gundy’s surprising Oklahoma State Cowboys. 

It’s not too difficult to see why there’s a big spread — Texas is a better team, has a better record, and has a favorable matchup. One reason why they’re a tough matchup is that they excel at stopping the run, so Doak Walker Award favorite Ollie Gordon might find it difficult to come by another banner performance. Another advantage is that this Oklahoma State team finds playing defense optional and allows plenty of big plays through the air.

That’s where Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy steps in. The speedster is having a productive junior campaign, catching 67 passes for 883 yards and five scores. He’s done nothing but produce during his time in burnt orange, averaging 70.9 receiving yards per game across his three-year career. 

Being one of the fastest players might — just might — be of use against a secondary that ranks dead last nationally in passing explosiveness. That’s right, this toast-able Cowboys secondary has allowed 53 passing plays of 20+ yards this season en route to a ranking of 133th in passing explosiveness and 109th in EPA per pass. 

Worthy has gone Over this number in five of the last six games in which he’s had QB1 Quinn Ewers under center. This is a favorable matchup and he only needs a few receptions to cash the Over as the big plays will be there for the taking. 

Xavier Worthy Prop: Over 70.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Jaunting Jeanty

If you haven’t watched Ashton Jeanty play football this season, stop this reading right now and watch some highlights. The Boise State Broncos running back has been a human highlight reel, consistently embarrassing defenders foolish enough to try to bring him to the turf. 

Jeanty was named Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year for his exploits, rushing for 1,109 yards and 13 touchdowns while adding 537 receiving yards and five more scores. Oh yeah, and he accumulated those otherworldly stats in just 10 games. 

It’s his receiving production in particular that I’m interested in for Saturday’s Mountain West Championship game against the UNLV Rebels. DraftKings currently has that line priced at 29.5 for Saturday’s showdown at Allegiant Stadium. 

Simply put, that number is laughably off. Jeanty is averaging 53.7 receiving yards per game this season and there’s even reason to expect a better-than-average performance as his team is short on wide receivers.

Eric McAlister played in nine games this season before entering the transfer portal and was the clear No. 1 option in the passing attack, racking up 873 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Without him in the lineup, there’s a huge void in production as no other receiver has more than 269 yards or two touchdowns on the year. 

That leaves Jeanty with nearly twice the receiving production of any other player on this team. He’ll be relied upon heavily to move the chains and should find success in the receiving game against an error-prone UNLV defense that ranks 120th in EPA per pass and 125th in passing explosiveness. 

Jeanty was born to break off big plays, and he should have every opportunity to do so against the Rebels. He’s coming off a 100-yard receiving game against the Air Force Falcons and should be utilized heavily in the passing game again on Saturday.

Ashton Jeanty Prop: Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Slot receiver finds success

The Mountain West Championship game is one where I’m not shy about targeting Overs. The game has the highest total (59) of the eight championship games being played on Saturday as both offenses have wide statistical advantages over the respective opposing defenses. 

Another prop that I’m going to take a closer look at in this game is UNLV receiver Jacob De Jesus, who has a receiving yardage prop of 29.5 for Saturday’s showdown. 

The diminutive slot man was named to the First Team All-Mountain West squad as a kick returner. He’s not too shabby as a receiver, either, catching 46 passes for 456 yards and two scores as the Rebels’ No. 2 option in the passing attack. He has gone Over this receiving yardage number in eight of 12 games this season while averaging 38 receiving yards per game.

Boise State doesn’t have a lockdown secondary, surrendering 254.8 passing yards per game while ranking 82nd in EPA per pass. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Broncos send extra help over the top of leading UNLV wide receiver Ricky White, who racked up 76 receptions for 1,308 receiving yards and seven touchdowns this season. 

For UNLV to cap off a magical first year under Barry Odom with a conference championship, it’ll likely need someone other than White to step up in the passing attack. That’s where De Jesus steps in, and he’s been productive enough this season that he should be ready for the challenge. 

Jacob De Jesus Prop: Over 29.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)