The Baylor Bears look to avoid falling to 0-3 in conference play when they face the Iowa State Cyclones this evening.
The Bears can't move the ball at the moment, and my Baylor vs. Iowa State predictions don't anticipate many points scored in this affair. Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Baylor vs Iowa State prediction
My best bet
Under 44.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Baylor can't move the ball, and there are multiple reasons as to why. The Bears rank 100th in converting on third downs, 96th in completion rate, and are averaging just 5.2 yards per play.
They’ve also faced two of the better defenses in college football in Utah and BYU. The game at Utah was the last time Baylor had a quarterback other than Sawyer Robertson, but the junior may find it difficult to find success against Iowa State.
That’s because the Cyclones are fifth in EPA/pass, and they lead the nation in opposing completion rate, yards per pass, and interception rate. Iowa State is getting to QBs at a high clip, and that'll be problematic for a Baylor offensive line struggling in pass protection.
The Bears will need to try to run the ball, but they’ve yet to find a back upon whom they can rely — an issue exacerbated by the lack of push provided from the line.
On the other side, Iowa State will face its toughest defense yet. The Bears rank Top 30 in EPA/rush, early downs EPA, and defensive third-down success. That’s not going to stop the Cyclones from running the ball, who operate at one of the slowest paces in college football with a 55.6% run rate.
Rocco Becht has attempted 107 passes this season but has thrown the ball 20+ yards downfield just 11 times. He won’t get much time to look downfield against a Baylor defense ranked 25th in sack rate.
Thus, the Cyclones will look to run the ball and grind out drives, as they have all season. It’s why they only scored 20 points last week against Houston and 20 points against Iowa.
Combine all these factors, and you have the perfect conditions for a low-scoring affair. The total has come down two points since opening, but it’s still too high for my liking. Back the Under to hit for the 11th time in Iowa State’s last 13 home games.
Baylor vs Iowa State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 45.5
Rocco Becht 2+ passing touchdowns
Baylor’s defense has faced three Power 4 teams already this season. The quarterbacks for Utah, Colorado, and BYU all threw multiple touchdown passes against a defense struggling to stop teams in the red zone. Becht should find similar success near the goal line.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best Baylor vs Iowa State bonus
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Baylor vs Iowa State odds
Baylor vs Iowa State live odds
Baylor vs Iowa State opening odds
- Baylor vs. Iowa State spread: Iowa State -13
- Baylor vs. Iowa State moneyline: Baylor +387, Iowa State -546
- Baylor vs. Iowa State Over/Under: 46
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Baylor vs Iowa State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Iowa State is favored by 12.5 points heading into Saturday. The spread briefly dipped by a point on Wednesday but has remained fairly consistent.
- As much as Baylor’s offense has struggled, it's been competitive in every game. The Bears stormed back to lose by just six to BYU last week, and this spread might be a bit too high given Iowa State’s lack of explosive plays this season.
- The total of 44.5 points is down two points from the opening number. It’s still a few points higher than the total for Iowa State’s last game against Utah, which went Under.
Baylor vs Iowa State betting trend to know
Iowa State has hit the game total Under in their last four games at home (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Baylor vs Iowa State.
Baylor vs Iowa State game info
| Location: | Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Baylor vs Iowa State latest injuries
Baylor vs Iowa State weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
