Another weekend of college football, another opportunity to play some player props.
Week 10 brings plenty of intriguing matchups, and I’ve selected my three favorite players to target. Read on to see my three best college football picks for Saturday, November 2.
Best college football player props for Week 10
-
Daniel Jackson Over 56.5 rec yards (-114 at FanDuel) -
Sawyer Robertson 25+ rush yards (-115 at FanDuel) -
Desmond Reid Over 35.5 rec yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 11-1 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
College football player props for Week 10
Prop bet #1: Daniel Jackson Over 56.5 receiving yards
Daniel Jackson smashed his receiving yardage prop Over last week in this column when he caught nine passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns against the Maryland Terrapins.
The fifth-year senior is the clear WR1 on the Minnesota Golden Gophers, pacing the team in targets (73), receptions (51), and yards (568). He has nearly double the amount of targets as the next-closest wide receiver (39) and is locked and loaded for a heavy amount of volume for the remainder of the season after seeing double-digit targets in four of his last six games.
That sort of volume will play, especially for a surprisingly effective Gophers passing attack. Minnesota has upped its pass rate (21st) this year and has moved the chains in the air, ranking 22nd in passing success rate.
Illinois does not qualify as a difficult matchup — the Illini rank 78th in EPA per pass and 116th in passing success rate. There’s a difference of 94 spots between Minnesota’s and Illinois’ ranking in passing success rate, which indicates the Gophers should have a marked advantage through the air.
Illinois doesn’t create much pressure (106th in front-seven havoc, 66th in PFF’s pass-rushing metric), so it’s unlikely Minnesota is thrown off its game, and its game has involved force-feeding Jackson.
Prop bet #2: Sawyer Robertson 25+ rushing yards
Baylor Bears quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been a revelation. Since he took over for DeQuan Finn, the offense has averaged 34.7 points per game and at least 5.1 yards per play in all six contests.
This team is hard to stop because it can beat you both through the air and on the ground. Robertson has thrown 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt, and the ground game is averaging 176 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per pop.
Robertson has contributed with his legs, handling 39 carries for 229 yards and four scores. He showed his wheels off with eight carries for 73 yards and a score last week against Oklahoma State, and it’s evident his legs are a part of this offense’s MO.
His matchup in Week 10 is interesting because the TCU Horned Frogs are much better against the pass than the rush. They’re allowing just 173.8 passing yards per game while ranking 16th in passing success rate, but have surrendered 166.1 rushing yards per game while ranking 118th in both EPA per rush and rushing explosiveness.
TCU doesn’t create much pressure, either, checking in at 93rd in front-seven havoc and 119th in PFF’s pass-rushing metric. Baylor has suppressed chaos in the backfield (24th in front-seven havoc), so Robertson doesn’t appear in great danger of losing rushing yards due to sacks and negative plays.
I’m going to play his rushing yardage prop, as he needs only 25 yards to hit the Over. He’s averaging 44.8 rushing yards across his last five games, and this is an advantageous matchup.
Prop bet #3: Desmond Reid Over 35.5 receiving yards
Western Carolina transfer Desmond Reid has been superb for the Pittsburgh Panthers, racking up 882 scrimmage yards and seven TDs while averaging a robust 7.7 yards per touch. He’s equally capable of beating you on the ground (541 rushing yards on 6.1 yards per carry) or through the air (341 receiving yards on 13.6 yards per reception).
Pitt will need Reid to be at his most dangerous against a tough SMU Mustangs defense in Week 10. SMU ranks seventh in EPA per play and 11th in success rate while holding teams to 21.4 ppg.
Still, Pitt may be up to the challenge, as it ranks 19th in EPA per play and sixth in explosiveness. Those big plays might come in handy against an SMU defense prone to allowing them (109th in explosiveness).
Reid might be the most electric player in college football, so he only needs a few targets to have a chance for some chunk yardage.
The diminutive speedster racked up 311 receiving yards in a three-game stretch, but then was put on ice in Pitt’s last two matchups, catching just a single pass for 19 yards.
I think that output is easily explainable — the Panthers kept the ball on the ground against Cal because that’s what was working (120 rushing yards and two scores for Reid), and the game against Syracuse was over in the first quarter.
A blowout in Week 10 is unlikely as the Mustangs are ranked No. 20 and stand as 7.5-point favorites. Playing from behind in a close game would be a perfect game script for Reid to cash the Over on his receiving yardage prop of 35.5.
There should be a ton of plays in this game as Pitt ranks sixth in my tempo metric while SMU isn’t far behind at 33rd. This would be great news for offensive skill players and their statistical production.
NCAAF odds Week 10
Here are the full NCAAF odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
