College Football Player Props & Best Bets: Brooks Blasts Off For Louisville

Prop bet #1: Jalon Daniels Over 197.5 passing yards

Best odds: -114 at FanDuel

There’s not exactly an apt analogy for how bad the West Virginia Mountaineers secondary has played. Trainwreck? Natural disaster? Three kids in a trench coat? Nothing seems to quite get across just how miserable this unit has been through three games. 

Neal Brown and this coaching staff hit a few home runs in the portal a year ago with players like Beanie Bishop Jr. They tried to replicate that plan again in 2024, but this year’s crop simply can’t cut it and there don’t seem to be any ready-made solutions to stem the bleeding. 

West Virginia ranks 134th (dead last) in EPA per pass, 128th in passing success rate, and 133rd in passing explosiveness. The Mountaineers are getting beat repeatedly all over the field. The linebackers are struggling to provide support and the corners have performed like the worst unit of any Power 4 team. 

First, Penn State’s Drew Allar torched them for 216 yards and three touchdowns on just 17 attempts. Then a rebuilding FCS school, Albany, threw for 306 yards and a score. Most recently, Pitt’s Eli Holstein completed 70% of his attempts for 301 yards and three touchdowns. 

This sets the stage for Kansas Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels to have a successful Week 4. He’s been rightfully criticized for some ill-advised interceptions over the last few weeks, but he’s one of the nation’s most talented signal-callers and is throwing to a receiving room that returns essentially everything from a year ago. 

This is a perfect opportunity for Daniels to get back on track against a defense surrendering 280.7 passing yards per game. 

Prop bet #2: Ja'Corey Brooks Over 70.5 receiving yards

Best odds: -114 at FanDuel

Louisville Cardinals offensive coordinator Brian Brohm’s offense tends to feature a go-to target at wide receiver who goes on to have a monster season. 

While at Purdue, he had several wideouts go berserk. Charlie Jones caught 110 passes for 1,361 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022. David Bell had 93 receptions for 1,286 yards and six touchdowns in 2021 and was on pace for 106 receptions for 1,250 yards and 16 touchdowns during the COVID-shortened 2020 year. 

If we count those extrapolated numbers and rope in Rondale Moore, Brohm would have had a 1,000-yard receiver in five of the last six seasons. Jamari Thrash was likely headed that way last year for the Cardinals but ended with 858 yards while dealing with an injured wrist for much of the year. 

Through two games, Alabama transfer Ja’Corey Brooks appears to be the heir apparent to the WR1 throne. He leads the team with 15 targets and has taken them for 13 receptions for 172 yards and a touchdown. 

The scheme tells us that the volume should be healthy. The tape tells us that he’s an explosive player who has no problem burning defensive backs on a variety of routes. The advanced metrics tell us he’s averaging an impressive 3.31 yards per route run. 

His Week 4 matchup is far from a difficult one as the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets rank 93rd in EPA per pass and 104th in passing success rate. Once you factor in that one of their games came against the offensively inept Florida State offense and erratic quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, those numbers look even worse. 

Georgia Tech was exposed for 381 yards and four touchdowns through the air in its biggest test of the year against Kyle McCord and the Syracuse Orange. Louisville ranks sixth in EPA per play and third in success rate and qualifies as the most difficult challenge this defense has seen to date, and it looks like a one-sided matchup on paper. 

Brooks’ receiving yardage prop is set at 70.5 and that feels quite fortuitous.

Prop bet #3: Phil Mafah 2+ touchdowns

Best odds: +230 at FanDuel

The Clemson Tigers finally showed signs of life offensively in Week 2 when they racked up 66 points against Appalachian State on a whopping 712 total yards of offense on 9.8 yards per play. 

Do those numbers need to be taken with some added context after the Mountaineers defense was once again exploited this Thursday against South Alabama? Yes. Is this still a past-due sign of encouragement for a Clemson offense that’s been dying for some positivity? Also yes. 

The focal point will be running back Phil Mafah, and Dabo Swinney wasn’t shy about admitting as much during offseason press conferences. He’s a big, bruising back with a physical running style who will be counted on to do the heavy lifting. 

He split work with Will Shipley a year ago but was more efficient than the current Philadelphia Eagles back, outgaining him with 5.4 yards per carry compared to 5.0, and reaching the end zone 13 times on the ground compared to Shipley’s five. 

The Tigers returned four starters and 106 career starts to an offensive line that ranked 21st in stuff rate a year ago. They should pave the way for a big day on the ground from Mafah against an NC State Wolfpack defense that ranks just 104th in EPA per rush and 121st in rushing explosiveness. 

The Wolfpack have been pushed around on both sides of scrimmage and rank 107th in line yards and 117th in front-seven havoc. They surrendered 120 rushing yards and a score on 6.1 yards per carry against an FCS school in the opener and were gashed for 239 yards and three scores by Tennesee in Week 2’s nationally-televised embarrassment. 

Clemson is a massive 19.5-favorite currently at BetMGM. NC State is starting a true freshman quarterback, C.J. Bailey, on the road in Death Valley, which is a troubling endeavor. 

The Tigers are expected to win big and Mafah is their most reliable — and likely best — offensive player. I’ll bet on him reaching the end zone twice.