Big 12 2019 college football predictions and best bets: Hurts to keep Sooners' offense booming

Oklahoma has won the Big 12 title for four straight years and Lincoln Riley has coached the Heisman winner each of the past two seasons. His latest project under center is Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts. Can this new combo keep Oklahoma's dominance going? Or will a team like Texas finally dethrone the Sooners?

We break down this high-octane college football conference by giving you our best ATS bet/fade for this season, plus Over/Unders, season win total picks, and much more in our Big 12 betting odds preview.

Check out our other 2019 college football conference previews: ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC

2018 RECAP

BEST ATS BET

IOWA STATE

There wasn’t one team in the Big 12 that was a standout bet last season, with the most profitable teams being Kansas State and Kansas at a meager 7-5 ATS. That’s not so great. So, the question is will there be a team that steps up and increases our bankroll in 2019?

What we have to look for is the under the radar good team, that could have a surprise breakout and take the next step on the field. Usually, but not always, these teams have a solid defense, which is hard to find in the Big 12 and maybe a reason for the poor profits in this usually high-octane conference.

So, our most likely candidate seems to be Iowa State. The Cyclones lead the Big 12 in scoring defense and could have been even better if it wasn’t for some late season collapses. They also led the conference in rushing defense and were second in passing and total defense.

And while most people think of defense and a run game (thanks to the likes of David Montgomery) when the Cyclones are mentioned, they didn’t realize that ISU became a much more efficient offense when freshman Brock Purdy took over at quarterback in Week 5. After the switch, the Cyclones averaged over 30 points per game while Purdy completed 66.4 percent of his passes.

With Purdy back under center with his entire offensive line back and virtually the entire defense returning, Iowa State could quietly make some moves in the Big 12 this year, hopefully to the profit of their backers.

BEST ATS FADE

TEXAS

The hype around Texas is starting to reach ridiculous levels (they're back, haven't you heard?), as some are even talking about the Longhorns being potential dark horse playoff contenders. And it's at least understandable as to why. The offense could be special with Sam Ehlinger back under center. The offensive line should be strong and even with Ehlinger’s top pass catcher now gone (Lil’ Jordan Humphries), there is still plenty of talent at the skill positions.

The problem? Tom Herman is no longer an underdog. Most people know, that Tom Herman was an exceptional guy to back when getting points. In his four seasons as a head coach at Houston and now in Texas, his teams went a ridiculous 13-2-1 ATS and an almost as impressive 10-6 straight up. But, with all the hype surrounding the Longhorns, Herman likely won’t be getting points too often. In fact, if you look at their schedule, they will be underdogs two times at most, against LSU in Week 2 and depending on how the early part of the season goes, the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma in Week 6.

So, Herman is going to have to learn to coach as a favorite. Something he has struggled with throughout his career, going just 15-22-1 ATS. It’s been even worse when the Longhorns have been expected to win easily. Texas is just 2-8 ATS over the last two seasons when favored by a touchdown or more. The added hype will do nothing but inflate Texas lines all season long and bettors can capitalize on that.

BEST OVER BET

OKLAHOMA

The Sooners have been a fantastic Over bet since Lincoln Riley took over in Norman, going 19-9 over the past two seasons, including a conference best 11-3 last year. Obviously, that was with Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray at quarterback, but we’re going to have to give Riley the benefit of the doubt here. Jalen Hurts may not be as talented as those guys, but Riley is the man to get the most of his skillset.

People forget that Hurts was the SEC offensive player of the year as a freshman back in 2016 when he threw for close to 3,000 yards, ran for another 954 and had 36 total touchdowns. And in his brief reliefs last year Hurts upped his completion percentage to 72.9 percent, which included going 7-for-9 for 82 yards with one passing and one rushing touchdown in Alabama’s comeback win over Georgia in the SEC title game last year.

With Riley coaching the Sooners they have averaged 45.1 and 48.4 points per game and that was with two different quarterbacks. The offense may operate a little differently with Hurts under center, but it shouldn’t be much less explosive.

Then there’s the Sooners defense. Oklahoma ranked dead last in the conference in scoring and total defense. Ah, the Big 12, the only conference where you be terrible on defense and still succeed. Riley has made some changes in hopes of improving that. He Alex Grinch to be his new defensive coordinator, and while there is a lot of talent retuning, he’s got a big job ahead of him.

BEST UNDER BET

TCU

When you think of TCU these days, you usually think about defense. And why wouldn’t you. They were the only team to limit opponents to less than 200 passing yards per game, an even more impressive feat in the pass-happy Big 12. They backed that up with the conference’s third best rush defense and while there are some talented players to replace in the front seven, the secondary could be the best in the Big 12 once again.

But, in a conference that is known for scoring, boy, the Horned Frogs were bad at it last year. TCU averaged just 23.5 points per game last season, only Kansas State was worse in the Big 12. They were also one of the worst red zone teams in the country ranking 118th. Oh, and a week out from Week 1, Gary Patterson has yet to name is starting quarterback. That’s not usually a good sign at this point. The Horned Frogs could be an Under bettors dream this year.

BEST WIN TOTAL OVER BET

BAYLOR – OVER  7

Rebuilding the football program and culture at Baylor has been a tough task for head coach Matt Rhule, but his vision is finally starting to fall into place. The Bears return a ton of starters heading into this season, the most import being quarterback Charlie Brewer. The junior quarterback had a solid sophomore season throwing for just over 3,000 yards and 19 touchdowns while rushing for seven more.

With Brewer and plenty of talent at the skill positions to support him, the Baylor offense should soar in 2019. But where the Bears could really see improvement is on the defensive side. The secondary is going to be a real strength and they are getting back nearly every playmaker in the front seven.

Then there’s the Bears schedule. It’s about as easy of a three-game stretch to open a season that you could ask for. They’ll also likely be moderate favorites when they visit Kansas State and Kansas and when they host West Virginia. That means they would only need to find two wins from the remaining six and four of those are at home. Ten wins for this team may be more likely than six.

BEST WIN TOTAL UNDER BET

WEST VIRGINIA – UNDER 5

Talk about a transition year. On Jan. 1 head coach Dana Holgorsen announced he was leaving to take the Houston job. Quarterback Will Grier, his top three receivers, and their star left tackle are all gone. Now, the Mountaineers made a really good hire in former Troy coach Neal Brown, who completely turned around the Trojans program. But that is a lot of turnover to deal with.

Brown has pegged Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall to open this season as his starter and while he has some veteran runner in the backfield, Brown employs an air-raid attack offense so it will be interesting to see how they get used. And on the other side of the ball, the Mountaineers haves some skilled players retuning to their secondary, but have big holes to fill on the defensive line.

West Virginia’s schedule isn’t doing it any favors either. After an opening game against James Madison, the Mountaineers travel to what should be a very good Mizzu team. They also have road games at Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State and TCU. They also have likely home losses against Texas and Iowa State. That leaves no more than two probable wins on the table, with three or so toss ups. It’s just hard to see them surpassing their number this year.

3 HEADLINES TO WATCH

NEW FACES, NEW PLACES

There are four new coaches in the Big 12 this season, headlined by Les Miles as he brings his grass eating to the Kansas sideline in an attempt to turn around a perennially bad Jayhawks program. Kansas State finally had to replace Bill Snyder and made a sneaky good hire by bringing in Chris Klieman from North Dakota State. But it could be a couple seasons before the four-time FCS champion sees his system take full effect. We already mentioned Neal Brown taking over at West Virginia and Matt Wells is the man taking over for Kliff Kingsbury at Texas Tech after he departed for the NFL.

OVER-RATED

Just because the Big 12 is know for its high-octane offenses and video game-like scoring, doesn’t mean you should go and bet Overs willy-nilly. Last season Big 12 teams went 66-61, cashing just 52 percent of the time. In, fact over the past three seasons Big 12 teams are just 183-199-1, cashing a shockingly low 48 percent of the time. So, the moral of the story is oddsmakers are not afraid to put out some high total, maybe even a little too high at times. Meaning don’t be afraid to bet the Under in the Big 12.

THE BEST OF THE REST

If you think this is finally the year that Oklahoma finally hands over their Big 12 crown. There are some juicy options out there for you, starting with Texas on the board to win the conference at +500. Next up is Iowa State at +800, followed by Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU all at +1,600. That said, none of these teams have the best value to win the Big 12.

BEST VALUE TO WIN THE BIG 12

OKLAHOMA (-167)

This one was actually more difficult than it should have been. Most pundits believe this is a two-horse race between Oklahoma and Texas, so going with the Longhorns at +500 would provide the most value, right? But from my perspective, teams like Iowa State and Baylor could really surprise people this season. So, with it not being as clear-cut as people think, mixed in with the Longhorns young defense sticking with what we know is probably our best bet. And what we know is Oklahoma is still the most talented team from top to bottom in the Big 12, and they’ve won four straight conference titles.

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