Two of the best teams outside of the College Football Playoff will meet on Saturday when the Iowa State Cyclones and Miami Hurricanes square off in the Pop-Tarts Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.
A blowout loss in the Big 12 Championship ruined the Cyclones' hopes of participating in the playoff, and they’ll want to end their season on a much higher note. The same goes for a Hurricane team that was stunned by Syracuse in the regular-season finale, knocking them out of the ACC Championship game and the playoffs simultaneously.
Our Iowa State vs Miami predictions for Saturday, December 28 explain why Cam Ward’s decision to participate means we should see plenty of fireworks for our college football picks.
Iowa State vs Miami prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 57.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Interceptions were a common theme in the Iowa State Cyclones' first eight games of the season. The defense notched at least one pick in each of those first contests and had two in six.
But starting with their defeat to Kansas, they’ve not come away with a single pick in five straight games. And it’s no coincidence that they lost two of those games and narrowly avoided defeat in a third. Teams figured out they could run the ball down Iowa State’s throat, and then hit plays through the air once the safeties started creeping down.
It’s also no coincidence that the average opponent QBR over Iowa State’s last five games was 154.1 compared to 85.3 over the first eight. And Utah and Arizona State both vastly eclipsed the 52.8% completion rate the Cyclones allowed on the season.
While much of the media focus on the Miami Hurricanes surrounds Cam Ward, the running game will likely be key to munching on some Pop-Tarts after the final whistle. Miami ranks fifth in EPA/rush on the season and leads college football in both early down EPA and third-down success.
Damien Martinez has confirmed he will be playing, and he has to be licking his chops at both the prospect of some frosted pastries and the chance to shred this defensive front. Iowa State allowed over five yards per carry this season, and Cam Skattebo and Arizona State went for 245 rushing yards on 39 carries in the Big 12 Championship.
Miami’s issue this year was giving up big plays and allowing opponents to hang around. The Hurricanes' defensive metrics make you scratch your head, wondering how they weren’t able to get stops. But those numbers didn’t prevent opponents from averaging 25.3 points per game, in large part because of the 31 passes of 10+ yards given up in ACC play — the third-most in the conference.
The Canes surrendered 295+ passing yards to Cal, Louisville, Duke, and Syracuse in conference play. Strong passing attacks have torn them up all season long, and Rocco Becht has two 1,000-yard receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who will be looking to hit chunk plays.
Ward doesn’t commit turnovers, throwing just seven picks all year, and Iowa State has one of the lowest sack rates in the nation. Becht has completed nearly 60% of his throws this season and has posted 250+ yards in eight of his last 11 games. These two offenses are going to put up points, and I like Miami to once again be in a shootout that comes down to the final minutes.
Iowa State vs Miami same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 57.5
Miami -2.5
Each team Over 26.5 points
Those four teams I mentioned that posted big passing days against the Canes? Well, they also all scored at least 31 points. Iowa State scored at least 29 points in its last four games of the regular season before Arizona State limited it to just 19. I like the Cyclones to bounce back and score at least 27 against the Canes.
The spread for Miami keeps creeping and I’m leery of taking it where it currently sits at -4.5 points. Instead, I’ll back them to win by a field goal on the alternate. The Miami fans will travel to Orlando to make this a pseudo-home game, and the offense will move the ball at will as the Hurricanes win by three or more.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa State vs Miami odds
Iowa State vs Miami live odds
Iowa State vs Miami opening odds
- Iowa State vs. Miami spread: Miami +1.5
- Iowa State vs. Miami moneyline: Iowa State +130, Miami -160
- Iowa State vs. Miami Over/Under: 53.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Iowa State vs Miami spread and Over/Under analysis
- Miami opened as 1.5-point underdogs, and the market quickly corrected with the Canes moving to -3.5 within 24 hours. Friday saw the number creep up with Miami now laying 4.5 points.
- Iowa State is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven, while the Canes are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games away from home.
- The total has been going up consistently. After opening at 53.5, it moved up again on Friday to 57.5 thanks to how many star players have opted into playing.
- The Over is 3-0 in Iowa State’s last three games outside of Ames. The Over is also 6-3-1 in Miami’s last 10 games.
Iowa State vs Miami betting trend to know
Miami has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Iowa State vs Miami.
Iowa State vs Miami game info
| Location: | Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Iowa State vs Miami latest injuries
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Iowa State vs Miami weather
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