In-state rivals will make a trip up to Annapolis, Maryland, on Saturday as the East Carolina Pirates face off against the North Carolina State Wolfpack in the Military Bowl.
This should be a hard-fought contest that comes down to the final minutes, and that has me backing the Pirates on the spread in my East Carolina vs. NC State predictions.
I’ll break down the latest chapter in this long-running rivalry in my free college football picks for Saturday, December 28.
East Carolina vs NC State prediction and best bet
My best bet
East Carolina +6.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The East Carolina Pirates floundered early in the season before the school fired head coach Mike Houston and replaced him with former defensive coordinator Blake Harrell. Since Harrell took over, the Pirates have gone 4-1, losing only to a solid Navy squad in their season finale.
In those five games, the East Carolina offense came to life. Under Harrell, the Pirates averaged 40.6 ppg, up from 25.3 ppg earlier in the year. Much of the credit also goes to sophomore quarterback Katin Houser, who took over for Jake Garcia midway through the season. Over the last five games, Houser threw for 20 touchdown passes and an average of 288.6 yards per outing.
That will pose a real test for the NC State Wolfpack defense, which struggled to stop the pass all year long. Granted, the Wolfpack had to deal with some of the best quarterbacks in the nation in the ACC, but allowing opponents to complete 61.2% of their passes and rack up 241.1 yards per game in the air won’t translate against a quality Group of 5 opponent, either.
While the Wolfpack had a similarly potent offense for much of the year, they were less impressive down the stretch, scoring a pedestrian 27.7 ppg while losing two of their last three games.
They’ve also watched each of their last four opponents score at least 28 points. While C.J. Bailey has filled in admirably at quarterback after Grayson McCall went down with a career-ending concussion, he has thrown nine interceptions to go along with his 14 touchdown tosses.
It would be wrong to suggest East Carolina should be an outright favorite in this game. But I see this as much closer to a tossup than the line suggests, especially given how we’ve seen these teams play over the past month. I’m taking the Pirates to cover.
East Carolina vs NC State same-game parlay (SGP)
East Carolina +6.5
Under 58.5
One of the reasons why I like East Carolina to cover in this game is the fact that North Carolina State has the biggest missing weapon lost to the transfer portal in this game: wide receiver KC Concepcion.
With little to separate these teams to begin with, that not only makes me happy to take the Pirates on the spread but also gives me another lean to use for a same-game parlay.
Given that these teams both played to totals of around 60 points per game in the regular season and that the Wolfpack were less impressive offensively down the stretch, this may not be the shootout many pundits are expecting.
East Carolina is also going to be without starting wide receiver Chase Sowell, which could slow its potent passing attack a bit. I’m taking the Under to complete my SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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East Carolina vs NC State odds
East Carolina vs NC State live odds
East Carolina vs NC State opening odds
- East Carolina vs. NC State spread: NC State -6.5 (-105)
- East Carolina vs. NC State moneyline: East Carolina (+185), NC State (-225)
- East Carolina vs. NC State Over/Under: 58.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
East Carolina vs NC State spread and Over/Under analysis
- East Carolina is 7-5 against the spread this season, while North Carolina State has a 4-8 ATS mark on the year.
- The Pirates are 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Wolfpack. The teams have split those six games 3-3 straight up.
- The Over has an 8-4 edge in North Carolina State’s games this season but is an even 6-6 when East Carolina has played this year.
- The Pirates are averaging a total of 60.3 ppg on the season, with the Wolfpack coming in with an average total of 59.7 ppg.
East Carolina vs NC State betting trend to know
East Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. Find more college football betting trends for East Carolina vs NC State.
East Carolina vs NC State game info
| Location: | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 5:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
East Carolina vs NC State latest injuries
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East Carolina vs NC State weather
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