Two teams searching for playoff berths and starting rookie quarterbacks will meet in the Nation's capital Sunday night when Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders host Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons as a 4-point favorite under the prime-time lights. Wildly, this is the first time that two first-round rookie QBs will start in a prime-time game.
With his rib injury in the past and some projected heavy rain, my Falcons vs. Commanders predictions believe it could be another heavy running game for the Washington QB who has 147 yards on the ground since the bye.
These are my favorite NFL picks for Sunday, December 29.
Falcons vs Commanders SNF prediction
My best bet
Jayden Daniels Over 47.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Early in the season, Jayden Daniels was using his legs a lot. He averaged 60 yards on the ground per game over his first five matches and then got slowed down by a rib injury. His scramble rate and designed runs took a step back after he returned but not following a bye in Week 14 that he used to fully recover, it looks like the rookie QB is back to his running ways.
He ran for 81 yards last week on nine carries and rushed 11 times in Week 15 for 66 yards the week before. He currently leads all QBs in scramble yards and sits third in designed run rate. His Over is looking great again Sunday night and it's not just because of his increased volume and efficiency.
There is heavy rain projected Sunday night and it could possibly be heavy rain. That could slow down the passing game but also give Daniels more chance to create with his feet vs. an Atlanta Falcons pass rush that does not exist.
Another path for more yards is with his personnel. Brian Robinson fumbled twice last week and Austin Ekeler is still on IR. Terry McLaurin was limited at practice this week while Dyami Brown has been a DNP. Daniels might be the one player who has to make things happen.
With the playoffs in sight, the rib injury in the past, and the weather possibly creating more running opportunities, Daniels could have his third straight big running game since the bye.
Falcons vs Commanders SNF same-game parlay
Jayden Daniels anytime TD
Jayden Daniels 70+ yards rushing
Washington moneyline
Daniels is back to his rushing ways after that mid-season rib injury slowed him down and took away some designed runs as Washington wanted to keep him safe. The training wheels are off and with lots of rain projected and some trust issues with Brian Robinson, the path for 70+ rushing yards is legit Sunday night. He has hit this number in two of his last four games and twice across his first five games pre-rib injury.
The rookie QB also has seven red-zone carries over his last three games and has six rushing TDs on the year. Robinson is dealing with fumble issues and McLaurin has been limited at practice this week. I wouldn't be surprised if he got his number called in a rookie QB duel.
Finally, the Washington Commanders are the better team and I'm also fading the indoor team playing in cold and wet conditions.
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Falcons vs Commanders odds
Falcons vs Commanders live odds
Falcons vs Commanders opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +3.5 | Washington -3.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta +155 | Washington -185
- Over/Under: Over 47 | Under 47
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Falcons vs Commanders spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Commanders' No.2 WR in Dyami Brown is very questionable while Terry McLaurin missed practice early in the week but returned to a limited session on Thursday.
- This spread has ping-ponged in no-man's land from 3.5 to 4.5 this week. If the weather is legit an issue, the total will fall but I can't see a path where Washington hits a -3 unless McLaurin is more questionable than people are assuming.
- Washington is 9-5-1 ATS and 10-5 O/U compared to the Falcons' 6-8-1 ATS mark and 5-10 O/U.
- The Falcons were a much slower-paced team with Penix under center so an overall downgrade in play volume should be expected.
Falcons vs Commanders betting trend to know
The Atlanta Falcons have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 17 games (-9.10 Units / -42% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Commanders.
Falcons vs Commanders game info
| Location: | Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Falcons vs Commanders latest injuries
Falcons vs Commanders weather
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