Boise State vs North Texas Prediction: Frisco Bowl Odds and Picks

The Frisco Bowl welcomes a matchup of North Texas against Boise State on Saturday night. The matchup will pit two teams that already have had many moving parts in 2022.

The Mean Green will be without Head Coach Seth Littrell manning the sidelines. After guiding North Texas to a 7-6 season, Littrell was fired by the new athletic director. It was a surprise to some as Littrell had successfully reached a bowl game in all but one season. 

For Boise State, Quarterback Hank Bachmeier hit the transfer portal after a Week 4 loss to UTEP that also saw its offensive coordinator Tim Plough fired. 

These teams have had similar seasons, finishing as conference runner-ups and seeing significant coaching shakeups. Boise State comes into this one after a 9-4 season and is rightfully favored, but North Texas (7-6) can absolutely pack a punch on its best day.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Boise State vs. North Texas on December 17.

Boise State vs North Texas best odds

Boise State vs North Texas picks and predictions

There's so much at play here. Boise State will feel this particular bowl game is a letdown. The Broncos were a game away from being the Mountain West Champion, capturing a double-digit win season and playing a Power Five opponent in a bowl game. Who knows what the mindset is for this one?

You also have the apparent coaching departure for North Texas, and this is a team that enters this postseason with muted momentum. It has lost two of its last three, with the offense looking like a shell of itself.

The best bet for me here is betting on one team to come out flat. The best way to quantify that is in the total, and we're taking the first half Under. Here's the thing: We're going to get points. North Texas is 29th in FBS in scoring, and Boise State's offense is always electric. However, this is just too high of a number. Oddsmakers aren't fully accounting correctly for a few variables.

For starters, the Broncos want to establish their prowess on the ground. North Texas looked ordinary against the only Mountain West opponent it faced this season when it was blasted at UNLV. The Rebels ran for 365 yards on the ground, mainly pushing North Texas around for most of the game.

Boise will want to replicate that, and it's effective through the air but most comfortable on the ground with George Holani in the backfield. Holani has rushed for over 100+ yards in six games this season. In many ways, this is a long way to say the clock will tick more than we may expect it to. This is more relative in the first half, with the Broncos attempting to set a tone. 

At times this season, Boise State's defense has had some downright incredible performances. It finished the season allowing just 18.5 points per game, which ranked 11th in the country. In addition, it fields a pass defense that ranks third in the nation in yards allowed per game, surrendering just 163 yards per contest.

When you look at the North Texas offense, you see a team that wants to toss the ball around. It has an explosiveness rating of 1.83 through the air and an EPA of .308. Boise can do an excellent job of slowing that air attack down with future NFL talent and safety JL Skinner. This aspect of the game should force North Texas to run the ball more, and much like what will occur when Boise State has the ball, the clock will run much more than usual. 

You may look at this handicap and see that I'm essentially setting up a scenario where the Broncos roll. That's entirely possible, but questions about how sharp they are and how motivated they are for this one make that side take a backseat.

Expect this game to start slowly out of the gate. 

My best bet: First half Under 28 (-110 at FanDuel)

Boise State vs North Texas spread analysis

Boise State should win this game, as the Broncos are a much more talented and simply a more impressive team. 

As we mentioned, you don't finish a season in the Top 50 of FBS in scoring by accident. Eventually, Boise State's defense will be felt by the Mean Green and be the difference maker. I want no part of this matchup in the form of a pregame wager, but I may play something live depending on how the game flow is going.

Currently, North Texas has some absolutely dreadful trends against the spread. The Mean Green are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games, 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral site games, and 0-8 ATS in their previous eight games in December.

Still, because of the high probability of Boise State coming out sluggish in this one, you can get a better number live than what's being offered at the moment.

Boise State vs North Texas Over/Under analysis

There is a lot of unpredictability in this game, from North Texas being without its coach, to Boise State being disappointed about being in this game.

The thing that feels the safest is leaning on the Broncos' defense early on. It's been the most consistent part of its team all season, and it's also the side of the ball that hasn't had to deal with any staff turnover.

It's been quite a while since these two teams have faced each other, so we don't have much relevant head-to-head data. With that being said, the Under is 5-1 in Boise State's last six non-conference games. A big part is how dominant its offensive line has been, and those said non-conference opponents being unprepared for it.

That allows the Broncos to grind its opponent and for the clock to burn when they're on offense.

In-play microbetting trends for Boise State vs North Texas 

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

• DraftKings Sportsbook
• bet365 Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

Boise State

Offensive score Yes: 6/27 (22.2%)
Offensive score No: 21/27 (77.8%)

Punts: 12/27 (44.4%)
TDs: 3/27 (11.1%)
FG attempts: 5/27 (18.5%)
TOs: 7/27 (25.9%)

North Texas

Offensive score Yes: 14/34 (41.2%)
Offensive score No: 20/34 (58.8%)

Punts: 9/34 (26.5%)
TDs: 12/34 (35.2%)
FG attempts: 4/34 (11.8%)
TOs: 9/34 (26.5%)

North Texas had three drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Boise State vs North Texas betting trend to know

North Texas is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Boise State vs. North Texas.

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