The Boston College Eagles are coming off their first loss in six weeks, hitting the road tonight to battle a Pittsburgh Panthers side that has just two wins throught 10 games.
Perhaps it’s a little surprising, then, that Pittsburgh is listed as a 2.5-point favorite in the college football odds. With nothing but senior night left to play for, is Pitt capable of pulling out a win at Acrisure Stadium under the prime-time lights?
Find out by reading our free college football picks for Boston College vs. Pittsburgh on November 16.
Boston College vs Pittsburgh best odds
Boston College vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions
After ripping off five straight wins and gaining bowl eligibility, the Boston College Eagles proceeded to get whipped 48-22 by Virginia Tech.
One of the top rushing teams in the nation — BC ranks 12th in the nation, running for 202.5 yards per game — the Eagles were grounded, running for just 124 yards on 29 tries.
Quarterback Thomas Castellanos couldn’t pick up the slack, completing just 10 of 20 passes for 110 yards and a TD, while getting picked off twice.
Their defense, featuring the second-worst rush defense in the ACC, was railroaded to the tune of 363 yards on 51 carries and four TDs. BC watched Virginia Tech score 35 straight points, turning what was a 7-3 Eagles lead into a 38-7 rout.
The Pittsburgh Panthers are coming off a 28-15 loss to Syracuse, the sixth time this year they’ve lost by double digits. Christian Veilleux was 13-for-22 for 161 yards with one TD pass and one interception but couldn’t lead the Panthers to any second-half points.
The defense, meanwhile, was steamrolled by the Orange run game, piling up 382 yards on 66 carries and two scores. The run was so prominent that Syracuse’s QBs attempted eight total passes all game.
This was a rush defense that was a respectable 83rd in the country, allowing just 156.9 per game and an even better 61st in total yards against.
I think Boston College uses this ACC matchup as a get-right game. If Syracuse can run wild on the Panthers, so should the Eagles.
BC is also 70th in scoring in the country, putting up 26.4 points per game, and they should find the range against a Pittsburgh defense surrendering 28.2 points per contest.
Each of Pittsburgh's last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams at Acrisure Stadium has gone Over the total. Expect more of the same on Thursday.
My best bet: Over 47 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Boston College vs Pittsburgh same-game parlay
Over 47
Boston College +2.5
I’m still confused as to how a two-win Pittsburgh team can be considered a betting favorite against any bowl-bound team. Both teams haven’t been great against the spread this year, with Pitt checking in at 3-7 ATS and BC just a game better at 4-6 ATS.
However, the Eagles are among the better teams in college football as a road underdog. They're 3-1 ATS, one of just 22 teams in the nation with a 75% success rate or better in that scenario.
The Panthers are just 1-1 ATS as a home favorite, and they've failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Boston College vs Pittsburgh spread and Over/Under analysis
There has been massive fluctuation in the point spread for this matchup and all of it's happening after Saturday's results.
As of Sunday morning, there were books offering the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites, but that quickly moved from a pick’em to the Panthers being tabbed as the betting favorite.
You can now find the Panthers as high as a 3-point favorite, while most books have settled into the 2.5-point figure.
There are no significant injuries to report on either side and, other than it being senior night, nothing significant to report about this matchup. It’s a good football team against a bad one. What gives?
There are very few holdovers from the last meeting in 2020 when BC won 31-30 in OT (most notable is Pitt pivot Phil Jurkovec, who just lost his job to Veilleux). The Eagles have won two of three meetings since 2014.
Boston College vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know
Pittsburgh has cashed the Over in 10 of its last 13 games, while Boston College has gone Over in 10 of its last 12 contests. Find more college football betting trends for Boston College vs Pittsburgh.
Boston College vs Pittsburgh game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, November 16, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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