BYU vs Arkansas Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Count On Cougars to Keep It Close

Sam Pittman’s Arkansas Razorbacks host the BYU Cougars in an intriguing non-conference matchup as both teams look to remain undefeated. Last year’s game saw the Razorbacks win a 52-35 shootout in Provo in which both offenses combined for 1,115 total yards. 

Looking at college football odds, the Razorbacks are favored by just over a touchdown while the total is set at 47.5. 

This matchup is expected to play out in a much different fashion from last season’s barn burner, and I’m of the belief that this will favor one team against the spread. Check out which side I’ve selected in my college football picks for BYU vs. Arkansas on Saturday, September 16. 

BYU vs Arkansas best odds

BYU vs Arkansas picks and predictions

Despite both teams starting the season 2-0, neither has looked particularly impressive. 

BYU’s offense limped out of the gates in a 14-0 welcoming of FBS newcomer Sam Houston State. The Cougars mustered just 257 total yards on a measly 3.8 yards per play as starting quarterback Kedon Slovis, a Pitt and USC transfer, underwhelmed. 

Additionally, assumed starting transfer running back Aidan Robbins failed to make an impact. The final score of BYU’s second game (41-16) of the season looked good, but it outgained FCS school Southern Utah by just 48 total yards.

Arkansas has also underwhelmed, looking fine in a 56-13 opener but gaining less than 400 total yards against the FCS’ Western Carolina, and sputtering to a 28-6 victory over a terrible Kent State team that replaces more players than any other team in the nation. 

Where does that leave us heading into a Week 3 showdown between two teams still looking to truly break out? I’m expecting a hard-fought, physical matchup featuring non-explosive offenses but improved defenses from a year ago. 

There’s some news to monitor in the health department for both teams. 

Arkansas will be shorthanded yet again without star running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, who remains out after sitting in Week 2 and has no set return date. It’s a big loss, as he led SEC backs with 1,714 scrimmage yards in 2022 while adding 12 touchdowns. 

Top cornerback Dwight McGlothern is considered questionable after he played just a single snap against the Kent State Golden Flashes as he deals with a turf toe injury. 

BYU, meanwhile, is expected to see the return of top wide receiver Kody Epps after he missed the first two games. 

He’s an impact player as a Mater Dei High School record holder who caught six touchdowns in just eight games a year ago and exploded for nine receptions, 125 yards, and a touchdown against Arkansas a year ago. The health front seems to favor the Cougars. 

The books are expecting this to be much more low-scoring than a year ago, setting the total at just 47.5 despite last year’s matchup featuring 83 combined points and 1,115 total yards. 

Both teams switched to new defensive schemes after imploding on that side of the ball in 2022 and significantly upgraded their respective depth charts, especially in their front sevens. BYU’s defense has been lights out thus far under new defensive coordinator Jay Hill, surrendering 8.0 PPG. While they haven’t been tested yet, I liked what I’ve heard from him, his scheme has shown proof of concept, and they hit some home runs in the transfer portal.

In a low-scoring game between two run-heavy teams, I expect the clock to be moving freely, which favors the underdog. I don’t expect either squad to move the ball with impunity on the ground — this meeting will be much nastier than a year ago, where either team got what it wanted with little to no resistance. 

Both offensive lines have underwhelmed relevant to talent (in BYU’s case) and expectation (in Arkansas’ case, considering the coaching staff) and I don’t see a huge advantage when either team has the ball. 

Give me the road underdog.

My best bet: BYU +8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

BYU vs Arkansas same-game parlay

BYU +8.5

First Half Under 17.5

+375 at bet365

I do think that BYU has the ability to cover this spread in a variety of game scripts. That being said, the most likely route to a cover involves the defense continuing to show proof of improvement in Hill’s system with the influx of talent via the portal. In other words, keeping this a low-scoring game and keeping the clock ticking to limit possessions is a more likely approach than trying to get into a shootout on the road against an SEC school. 

This two-leg SGP combines my best bet of BYU against the spread, as outlined above, with the first half total Under 17.5 at +185, which brings the SGP odds out to +375. If the game follows the script that I find most likely — two rush-first teams struggling to move the ball with explosiveness — I find these two plays to be correlated. 

Dan Enos’ Maryland Terrapins offense lacked explosiveness a year ago, and think his preferred style of play will lead to an approach more focused on moving the chains in a pro-style scheme, which has been the case thus far in Fayetteville. Slovis is not a world-beater at quarterback and BYU’s offensive line has vastly underachieved thus far. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

BYU vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened Arkansas -10.5 but has since seen a fair amount of movement, dropping to -8 or -8.5 at current, depending on where you look. If you want to play the underdog on the moneyline, the best price currently available is BYU +270. Shop around using our college football odds tool to find the best price available before placing your wager.

The total has also seen a lot of movement, dropping from 55.5 at open to 47.5 at current. There is also a flat 47 available at the time of this writing. As alluded to in my SGP, I have a preference for the Under, although I do find the full game total so far below last year’s results that it’s hard for me to make it to the window. 

BYU is flying under the radar a bit as a team that has won six straight games. While the offense will likely take a step back this season as it’s sans impact quarterback Jaren Hall, there’s still hope considering Slovis is an ultra-experienced option playing behind what should be a good offensive line again after the Cougars ranked 26th in line yards and 30th in front seven HAVOC a year ago. 

The defense was totally overhauled after last year’s disaster (124th in success rate) and I take that as a positive sign that Kalani Sitake knew what improvements were necessary in hopes of competing in the Big 12. All of Hill’s last five defenses at Weber finished Top 30 in the FCS, and he moved down from head coach at his last stop to a coordinator at his next gig — a move that could be going overlooked. 

I contrast that with an Arkansas team that downgraded at offensive coordinator to Enos while defensive coordinator Barry Odom was hired away to be UNLV’s head coach. I think the Hogs will still be competitive in the SEC and I’m a fan of what this program is doing overall, but I think there are enough questions that I’m not comfortable laying juice in what will be a slugfest. 

BYU vs Arkansas betting trend to know

BYU is 6-0 SU in its last six games. Find more college football betting trends for BYU vs Arkansas.

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