Clemson vs Miami Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Tigers Take Advantage of Reeling Hurricanes

If the Miami Hurricanes do not rally now, it will be fair to doubt they will at any point this season. On a two-game losing streak, Miami now welcomes a conference power in Clemson to Hard Rock Stadium, and they'll be underdogs in the college football odds.

Sure, the Clemson Tigers do not look like ACC title contenders this season, but given that Clemson has won seven of the last eight ACC championships, it should be considered the reigning conference power at least through next month.

Can Miami find its footing to upset the defending conference champions? Let’s discuss in our free college football picks and predictions for Clemson vs. Miami on October 21.

Clemson vs Miami best odds

Clemson vs Miami picks and predictions

Miami’s fall two weeks ago against Georgia Tech was too baffling, comedic, and embarrassing to come back from. That may sound intangible, but it is the reality in the Sunshine State.

The Hurricanes were hanging with North Carolina and Drake Maye through halftime last week. In fact, a 17-point second quarter had given Miami a 17-14 halftime lead. And then Maye went to work, connecting with Tez Walker on back-to-back explosive touchdowns before adding a short score to running back Omarion Hampton by the end of the third quarter. The final score may have said the Hurricanes lost just 41-31, but the truth was, that game ended then and there at 35-17. North Carolina went up 38-17 before giving up two touchdowns in the back half of the fourth quarter.

That was the reality for Miami, getting blown out the week after one of the most inexplicable losses in college football history.

This is a more fraught trend than is usually employed by this handicapper, but it fits too perfectly to ignore. When The U suffers its second loss of the season, it quickly finds its third.

Last year, the Hurricanes began the season 2-0 straight-up and 1-1 against the spread. They then lost 17-9 at Texas A&M as 6.5-point underdogs. Miami proceeded to lose its next two games, three of its next four, and went 1-9 ATS from the A&M game onward.

In 2021, the Hurricanes opened 1-1, though 0-2 ATS. They then took a bruising from Michigan State, falling 38-17. Next up? Miami lost its next two FBS games.

In 2020, the Hurricanes looked the part of a contender, standing 8-1 heading into the final week of that staggered regular season, even at 6-3 ATS. They then took it on the chin from North Carolina, losing 62-26. A 37-34 Cheez-It Bowl loss to Oklahoma State followed, despite Miami closing as just a one-point underdog.

Those were not just losses. Each third loss was also a loss ATS, and the more recent two were part of greater streaks. This team does not rally. It falls.

That fall will continue this weekend. Clemson’s defensive front seven is too good to approach without the utmost attention, and that defense should hem in Miami’s rushing attack entirely. If the Hurricanes try to run, they are likely to fail, going against the No. 8 rush defense in terms of success rate and No. 27 in expected points added per rush against, dropping opponents’ expected outputs by 0.153 per rush against.

Making Miami that one-dimensional will put pressure on quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who has thrown five interceptions in his last two games.

My best bet: Clemson -3 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Clemson vs Miami same-game parlay

Clemson -3

Miami Team Total Under 23.5

Will Shipley anytime TD

+272 at FanDuel

Miami will have to be one-dimensional. Its rushing attack is not good enough to hold up against Clemson. The Hurricanes succeed more than they explode, ranking No. 28 in the country in rushing success rate while only No. 63 in EPA per rush. In other words, they move forward, just not by more than expected.

And stopping those runs is Clemson’s exact strength. Its defensive front seven is too well coached to miss more than an assignment or two in a night. Putting Miami behind the chains will then cause problems for Van Dyke, likely wasting a quality possession or two by resorting to field goal attempts, and that 8-to-14 point swing should be enough to doom the Hurricanes to fewer than 24 points.

Meanwhile, Shipley has scored four touchdowns in the last three games and at least one touchdown in each of Clemson’s four Power Five games this season. He is the Tigers’ most dynamic player and too reliable not to find the end zone yet again.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Clemson vs Miami spread and Over/Under analysis

Clemson opened as a 3-point favorite on Sunday, and it has been a boring week on this front, bouncing up to -3.5 on Monday, some books even considering -4, before returning to -3 by midweek. In Mario Cristobal’s year-and-a-half at Miami, the Hurricanes have gone 2-5 against the spread in games with a spread within one possession, either way, as well as 3-4 straight-up.

The total opened at 49.5 on Sunday before falling to 48.5 on Monday, where it remained throughout the week. All four of Clemson’s Power Five games this season have gone Under their totals, and the Under is 6-2 in the Tigers' last eight overall.

Clemson vs Miami betting trend to know

Miami has hit the team total Under in each of its last three home games. Find more college football betting trends for Clemson vs Miami.

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