Coastal Carolina vs Appalachian State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Chanticleers' Offense Can't Break Through

Life can be hard... the world a mess. With no new dramas on television thanks to the Hollywood strikes, we turn to college football odds for our entertainment and distraction. And fortunately for us all, the Sun Belt is here for us tonight. 

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are no longer the class of the conference, but they still have enough talent to make the Appalachian State Mountaineers worry tonight. Will the Mountaineers reach 2-0 in the competitive conference by defending The Rock tonight?

Find out in my free college football picks for Coastal Carolina vs Appalachian State on October 10.

Coastal Carolina vs Appalachian State best odds

Coastal Carolina vs Appalachian State picks and predictions

For a team that reached its last three years of success relying on a version of the triple-option — one turned into a pass-heavy scheme but still clear in its option influence — Coastal Carolina has largely abandoned the run.

The Chanticleers run the ball nearly 6% less often than would usually be expected given game state (down, distance, time, score, field position), an understandable choice given CC tends to lose relative ground when it rushes. And tonight, that is fortunate for Appalachian State, employing one of the 10-worst rushing defenses in the county in terms of expected points added per rush against, per CFB Graphs.

An argument could be made the Chanticleers may alter their offense to attack that Mountaineers' weakness, but that would be a rather extreme offensive alteration for a regular season game. Not to sound dismissive, but that would be especially extreme with the rather low stakes Tuesday night.

Coastal Carolina obviously wants to win every game it can, but at 0-2 in Sun Belt play already, the Chanticleers are unlikely to risk lost practice time on a new-look, temporary offense for just one week. They would rather improve for the season’s long run, not needing to empty the chamber on a weekly basis.

If sticking with the usual offensive approach, Coastal Carolina will run into trouble, a counter-intuitive pun. App State has one of the country’s best pass defenses, ranking No. 6 in EPA per dropback against before this weekend. That leads to opponents rarely putting together quality drives (31.3% of the time), unable to complete enough multiple passes in a row to sustain a methodical offense.

The Chanticleers already struggle with the follow up to that task. They put together plenty of quality drives — 53.7% of their drives are more likely to score than not — but they struggle to find the pay dirt.

For a team so dependent on the pass, the shortened field begins to create problems, scoring 2.86 points per quality drive. And even as dependent on the pass as Coastal Carolina is it finds success on just 32.2% of its dropbacks... a rate in the Bottom 25 entering last weekend.

The Mountaineers’ excellent pass defense should limit the Chanticleers’ number of quality drives, and then when Coastal Carolina does find its way into scoring range, its pre-established struggles in scoring opportunities will prove costly.

The Chanticleers dropped 30 points on Jacksonville State in Week 2 and 28 on Georgia Southern in their last outing, managing a fourth-quarter touchdown in each game. Those numbers would have bested their team total tonight (27.5) but doing so in two out of four FBS games suggests tonight’s number might inspire a stayaway approach.

Neither the Gamecocks nor the Eagles have the modest offense that Appalachian State enjoys, one that should chew up some clock with the run game and string together long drives frequently. That touch of Mountaineers ball control combined with Coastal Carolina’s inefficient passing game failing in scoring opportunities should doom the Chanticleers to a low output in this weeknight delight.

My best bet: Coastal Carolina team total Under 27.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Coastal Carolina vs Appalachian State same-game parlay

Coastal Carolina team total Under 27.5

Under 61.5

Appalachian State -6.5

+230 at FanDuel

This doubt in Coastal Carolina’s offense may seem blasphemous to all who enjoyed it since the 2020 season, but it is still a reality. Grayson McCall’s final year in Conway has gone far from plan. The Chanticleers’ offense succeeds on only 36.9% of its snaps — success being defined as gaining 50% of a first down’s needs, 70% of a second down’s, or 100% of a third or fourth down’s.

For context, Coastal Carolina succeeded on 42.1% of its offensive snaps in the 2022 regular season. That may seem a small difference, but failing on three or four additional snaps per game will doom two or three more drives than a year ago. Viewing that drop in success rate as that much of a drop in productive drives emphasizes these thoughts of fading the Chanticleers' offense.

They may thus struggle to such an extent tonight, that there is no chance of Appalachian State pushing the game Over its total. Yet the Mountaineers should still cover this spread as long as it remains within one touchdown.

App State has tonight’s one piece of offensive competence in its passing game, one used only when necessary. That “only when necessary” thought is a nod toward how much the Mountaineers like to run the ball, something that will bother Coastal Carolina’s defense and, again, further this game’s drive toward the Under.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Coastal Carolina vs Appalachian State spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened on Sunday with the Mountaineers favored by six points and a total of 57.5. Jumping Under a total that has risen four points may seem worrisome, but it would be a good process to catch the best number of the week.

The Mountaineers are coming off a letdown moment that was precipitated by one of the worst beats of the year, arguably making them ripe for a Tuesday night of focus. Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, has lost its last two games, both outright and against the spread.

Coastal Carolina vs Appalachian State betting trend to know

Coastal Carolina has hit the team total Under in its last four road games, including two this season. Find more college football betting trends for Coastal Carolina vs Appalachian State.

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