No team is as good or as bad as its most recent game. Texas A&M is not as bad as Notre Dame made it look. Clemson is not as bad as Georgia made it look. Penn State is not as good as a 34-12 win at West Virginia suggests. Miami should not be expected to send any other rival into existential dread like it did to Florida on Saturday.
This axiom is always a sports gambler’s friend, but remembering no team is as good or as bad as its most recent game is most important when one game is the only data point we have to react to on the season. College football teams generally make their greatest improvements between their first and second games.
Of course, there were some worries this weekend that should foreshadow weeks to come. Before Week 2 college football odds populate the sportsbooks, how should we react to Michigan’s 30-10 win against Fresno State? Texas vs. Michigan will highlight Week 2.
College football Week 1 things you should not overreact to
Don’t trust Michigan’s 30-10 final score against Fresno State
Sure, the Michigan Wolverines winning 30-10 fit in line with a spread of -21 and a total of 45.5, but they were the beneficiary of a short field to set up its first touchdown on a 31-yard drive and an 86-yard interception return for a touchdown.
Yes, the defense created those turnovers, but that's easier to do against the likes of Bulldogs quarterback Mikey Keene than it will be against Heisman Trophy odds contender Quinn Ewers. He threw only six interceptions on 394 pass attempts last year, one every 66 pass attempts. Ewers is not even the greatest Michigan worry, though.
Of nine possessions starting on a punt or a kickoff, the Wolverines produced four quality drives. That rate of 44.4% is a distinct drop from last year’s 55%, which was No. 7 in the country. Those numbers were 55.8% and No. 6 before the dominant National Championship Game, to shed some context on just how good Michigan was in this regard in 2023.
These thoughts now get worse for the Wolverines.
They reached the end zone on just one of those four quality drives. Michigan settled for a field goal three times after a drive had a first down inside the plus-40 — the operating definition of a quality drive, as a first down inside the 40 is when it becomes statistically more likely than not that the offense will score.
When replacing five offensive line starters, a goal-line force like running back Blake Corum, and a trusted quarterback like J.J. McCarthy, some scoring struggles are only natural, but they may soon define the Wolverines’ season.
These were not the struggles of a team keeping its playbook vanilla so Texas would not have the film to study. These were not the kind of mishaps fixed in a week. These were troubles that should keep Sherrone Moore up late for weeks to come.
Douglas' advice: The Longhorns were always going to be favored this week, some look-ahead lines suggesting by 3.5. Michigan’s margin for error will be razor-thin where it matters most next weekend, and settling for field goals will doom the Wolverines, but they cannot exactly go for a fourth-and-goal with confidence in success. Betting on Texas as a one-possession favorite should be one of your first tasks this week.
Don’t overreact to Clemson losing 34-3 to Georgia
That diminishes just how good the Georgia Bulldogs are. More than that, it overlooks how dominant they are. Those are two different things. Georgia is ranked No. 1 for a reason. Its national title odds are now shorter than +300, deservedly so. It just reloads.
Oh my goodness. This is why Malaki Starks is a blue chip prospect pic.twitter.com/NqkR9qS3G9
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) August 31, 2024
That's how good the Bulldogs are, but they are also dominant. Dominant in that once they flex on a game, they can dictate its terms entirely. As soon as Georgia took a 13-0 lead early in the third quarter, Clemson’s chances vanished. A two-score deficit against a Kirby Smart defense is different than a two-score deficit against anyone else in the country.
Take the Tigers’ first half. On 12 pass plays, they achieved a basic definition of success exactly once. On seven rushes, they did so three times.
The latter success rate is hardly inspiring, but Clemson was never going to find consistent success dropping back against Georgia. Yet, once down two touchdowns, what other choice did the Tigers have? The Bulldogs could pin their ears back and harangue Cade Klubnik, sacking him twice in the second half for a total loss of 14 yards.
This Clemson Tigers offensive line has been a relative worry for years, and it continues to be, but it becomes crippling only when a dominant defense like Georgia’s knows passes and only passes are coming. That will not usually be the case, especially in an ACC lacking many intimidating defensive lines.
Douglas' advice: Do not fret too much about Clemson’s big-picture hopes this season, not yet. The Tigers may not face another outright worrying defensive line all season. In the short term, expect the market to doubt Clemson’s offense and lower the total for next week’s visit from Appalachian State. Bet counter to that move. The Mountaineers prefer to throw the ball, while their defensive line will not give the Tigers the same amount of trouble in the trenches.
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College football Week 1 things you definitely should react to
Absolutely react to the roster damage done by late coaching changes
Of the 31 head-coaching changes this past offseason, eight of them occurred in mid-January or later, capped by Dell McGee taking the job at Georgia State on Feb. 23 after Shawn Elliott abruptly resigned during spring practices to go be the tight ends coach at South Carolina.
Four of those eight coaching changes can blame Nick Saban for their belated occurrence, his retirement starting a chain of dominos that reached from South Alabama to San Jose State.
Late coaching changes devastate a roster in the era of immediate eligibility upon transferring. When a coach leaves, no matter when he does so, the entire roster can transfer without penalty in a subsequent 30-day window, but at these latter dates, beginning about Jan. 18 (when offensive coordinator Major Applewhite was promoted to head coach at South Alabama after Kane Wommack left to be the co-defensive coordinator at Alabama), few quality players are remaining in the transfer portal, if any.
The new coaches could only watch the attrition hit their rosters, effectively unable to replace them with quality. These rosters suffer a greater talent drop-off than recognized, this new wrinkle in college football not yet quite quantified.
Of those eight programs, five of them faced an FBS team this weekend. They went 0-5 against the spread, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of eight points. A sixth, Boston College and Feb. 9 hire Bill O’Brien, head to Florida State on Monday night.
Douglas' advice: Doubt the market’s read of Arizona, Boston College, Buffalo, Georgia State, Michigan, San Jose State, South Alabama and UCLA for at least a few weeks.
Absolutely enjoy the scenery at Northwestern, because there will not be any points
Rain is an overrated weather factor when it comes to gauging totals, while wind is underrated. The generally accepted number is 15 miles per hour. Totals will begin to fall when a midweek forecast expects those kinds of gusts on a Saturday.
Put a stadium directly on Lake Michigan — like, literally, within punting range of Lake Michigan — and those kinds of winds will exist far more often. However, general weather forecasts do not hone in on the shore, so this reality may escape many bettors’ usual midweek process.
Northwestern’s temporary stadium is beautiful. Nighttime kicks could create some gusty chaos.
Looks like a beautiful stadium for some Unders this season!
— Andrew Caley (@Covers_Caley) August 31, 2024
Another sweatless cash for CF 134!
MIA(O)-NW u40 (-110) ✅pic.twitter.com/Vb7I70akra
Douglas' advice: Be quick to the Under on Duke at Northwestern this Friday evening. Ideally, it's still available at 42, but it should hold value down to at least 41.
Worry about Boise State’s aspirations, beginning this weekend
Boise State gave up seven explosive pass plays to Georgia Southern in an unexpected shootout. Star Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty ran for an absurd 267 yards and six touchdowns on just 20 carries. Without him, Boise State’s College Football Playoff hopes would already be dead.
They will survive a loss at Oregon on Saturday night, but Boise State’s pass defense getting further exposed will only demonstrate to the Mountain West — specifically the likes of Hawaii, UNLV, and San Diego State — a weakness waiting to be capitalized upon.
The Broncos knew Georgia Southern was going to throw the ball and rely on explosive pass plays. That's the crux of their offense. Yet, it still succeeded. When you cannot stop what you know is coming, your defense is clearly in trouble.
The Ducks’ offense is more balanced than the Eagles’. They enjoy what may be the best offensive line in the country, paired with dangerous receivers. Oregon will gash the holes in Boise State’s offense just as Georgia Southern did. Well, not just as Georgia Southern did. The Ducks will find the end zone even more often.
Douglas' advice: You may have to wait until midweek, but as soon as you see an Oregon team total south of 45, take the Over. Boise State should never have struggled with Georgia Southern like that, a most concerning development for the Group of Five Playoff hopeful.
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