The South Florida Bulls looked dreadful in their opener against NC State, losing 45-0 in lopsided fashion.
On the other hand, the Florida Gators won their first game of the season without some key offensive weapons. It’s a new life for Florida without Kyle Trask at quarterback, Kadarious Toney at receiver, and Kyle Pitts at tight end.
However, the college football betting odds still favor Florida by a large margin. The Gators' offense won’t be better this season, but will it matter against USF? Check out our free Florida vs. South Florida college football picks and predictions.
Florida vs South Florida odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Odds for this game started to come out on Sunday, September 5. Florida opened as a 29-point favorite in many outlets and still hasn’t looked back. At some spots, you can find a 28.5 but the line has been steady against the spread.
The total changed a bit more with the opening total sitting at 55.5. It jumped all the way to 59.5 at some outlets and went slightly back down to around 58.5, where it is currently. Be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets, and also view the full line movement for this game.
Florida vs South Florida picks
Picks made on 9/9/2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Florida vs South Florida game info
• Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
• Date: Saturday, September 11, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Florida vs South Florida betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Florida: Trey Dean III (Questionable), Jaydon Hill (Out).
South Florida: Christian Helms (Out), Will Jones II (Out), K’Wan Powell (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Gators' last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida vs. South Florida.
Florida vs South Florida predictions
Florida -28.5 (-110)
Florida defeated Florida Atlantic 35-14, behind an offense that gained 553 yards with 400 of those yards on the ground. Junior quarterback Emory Jones threw one touchdown along with two interceptions while going 17 for 27 passing for 113 yards. Jones gained a paltry 4.2 yards per completion in the air.
Jones is not going to be the next Kyle Trask. He isn’t a gunslinger and doesn’t have great pocket presence. However, he’s able to make plays with his feet as he gained 74 yards on the ground on 10 attempts.
Florida’s offense came in the running game behind Malik Davis, who averaged 7.4 yards per carry on 14 attempts. Just don’t expect the passing game to be great this season.
Defensively, Florida still allowed Florida Atlantic to gain 353 yards, although Florida was able to recover two fumbles. The team as a whole had nine penalties for 91 yards, and that’s not going to get the job done in SEC play. Luckily, it's not playing in the SEC this week and will look to correct its errors against South Florida, a team highly regarded as one of the worst in college football.
South Florida’s passing game was worse than the Gators' passing game last week. That’s so hard to do, but the Bulls did just that. South Florida couldn’t score a single point against NC State, losing 45-0 last week. It tried two different quarterbacks and neither looked anywhere close to prepared. Timmy McClain and Cade Fortin combined for three interceptions and, again, no touchdowns.
The tackling was terrible and the run defense allowed nearly 300 yards in the opener. Florida should be able to feast off its running game against South Florida’s rush defense. Plus, Florida showed off a very solid pass rush last week and with South Florida trailing, it’ll look to air it out a little bit. When it does that, Florida’s pass rush will create havoc and force turnovers.
I’ll bite and take Florida as heavy favorites against the spread.
Under 58.5 (-110)
If you’re looking to take the Over in this game, you’re hoping Florida can at least score 48 of the 58 points. South Florida struggled to score against NC State so going up against Florida doesn’t make things any easier.
The quarterback play was horrific for South Florida and the Gators have a dynamic pass rush and just an overall better defense than NC State right now.
Florida’s two strengths are running the football on offense and getting to the quarterback on defense. The weaknesses for South Florida include stopping the run, tackling, and its passing game on offense.
Everything that South Florida does poorly, Florida can exploit, but it will not be scoring any more than 50 points. I’ll have to ride the Under here.
Where can I bet on college football odds?
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