The Texas Longhorns will look to shake off a couple disappointing outings as they host the Florida Gators at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Longhorns are likely to continue their march to the College Football Playoff with a home win, but I’ll explain why I like the Gators to cover in my Florida vs. Texas predictions.
Keep reading to see how I think bettors should approach the early lines for this key SEC matchup in my college football picks for Saturday, November 9.
Florida vs Texas predictions
Early spread lean
Florida +21.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
When the first College Football Playoff rankings come out this week, the Texas Longhorns will be comfortably in the field. However, they haven’t looked like a championship contender over the past two weeks.
After going undefeated and virtually unchallenged over their first six games, the Longhorns lost 30-15 at home to the Georgia Bulldogs, then came back with a 3-point win over the Vanderbilt Commodores. While Texas might live with the idea of escaping an improved Vanderbilt team with a road win, the Commodores still aren’t great, and the Longhorns came into the game as 17-point favorites.
Texas has had a week off to prepare for the Florida Gators, and they’ll need it if they want to post an impressive win on Saturday. The Gators have been solid enough in SEC play, proving that they’re at least able to hang in with teams like Georgia and the Tennessee Volunteers on the road. Florida has covered in each of its last five games, winning outright twice as an underdog during that span.
The Gators will struggle to move the ball against an outstanding Texas defense that even the best SEC offenses have had to work hard to generate points against, but that doesn’t suggest that this game will be a blowout.
I expect Florida to present enough challenges for Quinn Ewers — who has thrown four interceptions in his last three games — and the rest of the Texas attack to stay relatively close for most of Saturday’s game. With the spread currently offering us over three touchdowns on the Gators, I have to lean towards taking them to cover.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 47.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
As I noted above, the Texas defense has been outstanding this year. The Longhorns are allowing just 3.8 yards per play, the best number in the nation. No team is shutting down the passing game better than Texas, either, as they lead the nation in defensive yards per attempt (4.6), yards per completion (7.9), overall passing yards per game (135.5), and opposing QB rating (90.7).
Texas has been far better than average against the run as well. And these numbers include games against five SEC opponents, Georgia among them, so this is not a case of running up the defensive stats against a cupcake schedule.
The Under is 3-0-1 in Texas’ last four games, even as the Longhorns have only covered once in that span. It could be considered concerning that Vanderbilt scored 24 points against Texas in their last game, but I’m not going to overreact to one game, especially when the Longhorns now get to face a Florida offense that likes to push the ball down the field through the air, something Texas is particularly effective at stopping.
That said, Texas isn’t going to run up the score here. The Longhorns offense has been efficient but far from overwhelming in any one area. Florida has been mediocre on defense, allowing 24.9 ppg, but even SEC offenses haven’t been able to rip through the Gators, with Georgia being the first team since the Miami Hurricanes in the opening week of the season to score as many as 34 points against Florida.
The Texas defense should be the dominant unit in this game, while an underrated Florida defense keeps the Longhorns to the kinds of numbers they’ve been putting up in recent weeks against other SEC opponents. My early lean is toward the Under.
Florida vs Texas live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
