The Sugar Bowl between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Georgia Bulldogs has the tightest spread and lowest total of all the College Football Playoff quarterfinals matchups.
However, that doesn’t mean there won’t be scoring and certain players finding success. Here are my college football picks for today's CFP quarterfinal matchup on Thursday, January 2, kicking off at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Notre Dame vs Georgia props for the Sugar Bowl
Riley Leonard anytime touchdown (+145 at BetMGM)
Gunner Stockton u175.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Jordan Faison o31.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 1-1.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Notre Dame vs Georgia Sugar Bowl player props
Prop bet #1: Riley Leonard anytime touchdown
Riley Leonard’s ability as a passer has always been a bit of a question mark. While I believe he’s going to have to make some big throws if the Notre Dame Fighting Irish hope to take out the Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl, Leonard’s legs could be the key in this matchup.
The Notre Dame quarterback has been a dynamic option for his team out of the backfield. This season, he rushed for 751 yards at an impressive clip of 5.6 yards per carry and 15 touchdowns, both career bests. Leonard has also found the end zone in all but three of his 13 games played.
Meanwhile, dual-threat QBs have been a problem for Georgia's defense. Haynes King rumbled for 110 yards and three scores in Georgia Tech's near upset of the Bulldogs, Mississippi's Jaxson Dart rushed for 50 when the Rebels beat Georgia in November, and Jalen Milroe went for 117 and two scores back in their September shootout.
Leonard is good enough to be effective on the ground in this matchup, and this is a great price to back him to find paydirt yet again.
Prop bet #2: Gunner Stockton Under 175.5 passing yards
Prepare all you want, making your first career college football start against this Fighting Irish defense is going to be a nightmare.
Gunnar Stockton has been thrust into the starter’s role after an injury to Carson Beck. The sophomore signal caller stepped in for the Dawgs during the SEC Championship, giving his team a boost by orchestrating a touchdown drive right out of the halftime break and leading the team to a big overtime win.
But while everyone was thrilled with Stockton’s performance, he ended the game by completing 12-for-16 passes for just 71 yards. That is just 4.4 yards per attempt, and now the backup pivot is set to take on arguably the toughest pass defense in the country.
Notre Dame enters this quarterfinals matchup leading the nation in both EPA per dropback and defensive success rate on dropbacks. What makes the Irish so scary is a secondary that can man up on the outside, particularly against a group of Georgia pass-catchers that lacks explosive playmakers. That will allow defensive coordinator Al Golden to scheme up some crazy blitz packages to confuse an inexperienced quarterback.
Expect Georgia to counteract those blitzes and inexperience by running the football, and that will add up to limited passing yards for Stockton. Give me the Under.
Prop bet #3: Jordan Faison Over 31.5 receiving yards
While Leonard's arm talent may be questioned at times, he has proven he can be an effective passer. Just look at the dime he threw in the fourth quarter to Jordan Faison in Notre Dame's latest win over Indiana.
In fact, having Faison back and healthy might be one of the reasons why Leonard and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish passing attack has looked better in recent games.
Faison was initially battling injuries for much of the first half of the season, but he’s healthy now and has hauled in 19 catches for 250 yards over the last six games. The biggest of which came in the first-round matchup against the Hoosiers, notching seven catches for 89 yards, including that 43-yard strike from Leonard.
Georgia ranks a middling 44th in success rate on dropbacks this season. Faison has a receiving yards prop sitting at 31.5, a number he’s eclipsed three times over this six-game stretch, and I like him to do it again in this matchup against Georgia.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only
More college football playoff picks from Covers
- Notre Dame vs Georgia predictions
- College football National Championship odds
- Free college football picks
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
