Get set for an exciting Mountain West Conference matchup tonight when the Fresno State Bulldogs meet the Nevada Wolf Pack. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET under the bright lights of historic Mackey Stadium in Reno, with the game airing on CBSSN.
These two groups go after it offensively whenever they meet, and my Fresno State vs. Nevada predictions expect that trend to continue.
Read on as I explain why I like the Over with free college football picks for Friday, October 18.
Fresno State vs Nevada prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 50.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Nothing says football like a Friday night in October, and this Mountain West football game should have plenty of excitement.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are coming into this one, seeking a victory. They’ve dropped two straight contests, including a 59-14 blowout loss 14 days ago at UNLV.
The Fresno State rushing defense leaves much to be desired. They allow an average of 4.5 yards per carry. Last week, the Bulldogs allowed Washington State 123 yards on the ground and 252 rushing yards 14 days ago at UNLV.
The Bulldogs stop unit is going to be in trouble this week.
Nevada Wolf Pack quarterback Brendon Lewis and his backfield average 5.15 yards per carry and 215 rushing yards per game. Lewis scampered for 157 yards and a TD against Oregon State. He only threw for 53 yards, but this kid can sling it when needed.
Lewis has 1,100+ passing yards with nine scoring strikes and five picks. If Lewis wasn’t enough trouble, there’s more; the Wolfpack backfield boasts three 200+ yard rushers and three wideouts with 200+ receiving yards.
Nevada will move the chains offensively with their feet, but their defense will struggle to contain Bulldogs quarterback Mikey Keene. That Wolf Pack D-unit picked off four passes last week against Washington State but has otherwise been mediocre this season against the pass, which Keene will pick apart.
Keene has thrown for 1576 passing yards with as many scoring strikes as interceptions (8) alongside a trio of receivers with 300+ receiving yards. Keene’s aerial attack should have a field day against a Nevada defense surrendering 254 yards through the air and 10 TD receptions.
That’s why I’m playing the Over in this one.
The defenses will struggle against the respective O-Units. Neither stops anyone consistently. Both offenses will move the chains and score points as the defenses will struggle to prevent what each offense does best. These two groups have gone Over the total in four of their previous five meetings and should do so again on Friday night.
Fresno State vs Nevada same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 50.5
Savion Red anytime touchdown
Mac Dalena anytime touchdown
I like Nevada running back Savion Red and Bulldogs wideout Mac Dalena to find the end zone to help push this total over the number.
Red scored four TDs last week against Oregon State. He also leads the team in rushing TDs (7) and yards (523). He’ll see his number called plenty and should succeed. Six of Fresno State's rushing TDs allowed have come in the red zone, and I expect the Nevada back to score at least one.
Dalena co-leads Fresno State in TDs (4). He’s Keene’s top target, and Dalena delivers. The Wolf Pack have surrendered 10 scoring strikes, with four in the Red Zone. I expect Keene to target Dalena plenty and the senior wideout finds the end zone at least once.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Fresno State vs Nevada odds
Fresno State vs Nevada live odds
Fresno State vs Nevada opening odds
- Fresno State vs. Nevada spread: Nevada +3.5
- Fresno State vs. Nevada moneyline: Fresno State -160, Nevada +130
- Fresno State vs. Nevada Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Fresno State vs Nevada spread and Over/Under analysis
- Fresno State is 3-3-0 ATS. BetMGM opened the Bulldogs at -3.5 (-110), but that number has dipped to -3 (-105).
- Nevada opened as a +3.5 (-110) home underdog. The Wolf Pack are 4-2-0 ATS and have covered the number in their last three ball games.
- Over/Under numbers have dipped from BetMGM’s 51.5 (-110) opener.
- Fresno State is 3-3-0 to the Over, while Nevada games have ended Over the number in four of their last six.
Fresno State vs Nevada betting trend to know
Nevada has hit the Game Total Over in eight of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Fresno State vs Nevada.
How to watch Fresno State vs Nevada
| Location: | Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV |
| Date: | Friday, 10-18, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
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