We're treated to a Top-5 matchup for the second straight week as Georgia heads to DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on fellow SEC power Texas.
In our Georgia vs. Texas predictions, we’re expecting the Longhorns to continue to show why they’re the No. 1 team in the country. Read more in our college football picks for Saturday, October 19.
Georgia vs Texas predictions
Early spread lean
Texas -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
No team has looked as strong as the Texas Longhorns this season, which is why they're now the No. 1 choice in the College Football National Championship odds.
In a year defined by upsets through the first seven weeks, Texas has yet to win a game by fewer than 19 points. Meanwhile, the rest of the SEC has eaten each other alive.
For as impressive as the Georgia Bulldogs’ near comeback against Alabama was three weeks ago, they haven’t ridden that second-half momentum in their last two games.
Two weeks ago, Georgia was up just 14-10 on a lowly Auburn team in the second half before pulling away to win 31-13. And last week was even worse, with just a 10-point win over a 1-5 Mississippi State team that scored 31 points despite ranking just 61st in SP+ on offense.
The Bulldogs didn’t cover the spread in either of those games. In fact, Kirby Smart’s team hasn’t covered the spread since its Week 1 win over Clemson — Georgia’s just 1-5 ATS this season.
That’s why I’m a little surprised Texas is only favored by 3.5 points at home against Georgia. The Longhorns are first in the country in SP+ and the only team to rank Top 5 in both offense and defense.
While Quinn Ewers had a slow start in his return from injury in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma, he eventually settled in. And that offense just has so many playmakers and a dominant offensive line that it didn’t matter that Ewers was a little rusty against a Sooners defense that’s 12th in SP+.
Texas is 5-1 ATS this season — including covering in both its games against ranked opponents (Michigan, Oklahoma) — and I have a feeling the public will be all over Texas with the way Georgia looked last week.
Given the Longhorns have the better offense, defense, and ATS record, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Texas be favored by 4.5 points by Saturday night. And I’d still take them to cover with SP+ projecting a 32-25 win for Steve Sarkisian’s program.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 56.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This is not your slightly older brother's Georgia defense. While it’s still loaded with blue-chip recruits and future NFL players, it gave up 41 points to Alabama and 31 to Mississippi State, including 21 in the second half.
The Bulldogs rank 10th in SP+ on defense, but they’re benefiting from playing three teams that rank outside of the Top 40 in SP+ on offense and an FCS program. Texas is far more comparable to the Crimson Tide.
The Longhorns actually only rank behind Alabama in SP+ on offense and are third in EPA per dropback. That’s going to be a problem for the Bulldogs, whose pass defense has been slightly concerning — it’s just 20th in EPA per dropback.
With Ewers at his best against top-tier programs — he has 18 big-time throws in eight games over the last three seasons against Top-10 opponents/Oklahoma, per PFF — I expect him, Isaiah Bond, Gunnar Helm, and Ryan Wingo to score enough for this Over to hit.
And Georgia’s offense has been better than its defense as of late. It ranks sixth in SP+ and sixth in EPA per rush. Trevor Etienne is a big play threat, and the Bulldogs have one of the nation’s best offensive lines, even with Tate Ratledge out.
Plus, Carson Beck has been playing much better since the second half against Alabama. Over his last three games, he’s made a whopping 11 big-time throws after having just one in Georgia’s first three games.
He looks far more like the QB prospect who was touted as a potential first-round pick over the summer. In addition, Georgia’s got several reliable pass catchers like Arian Smith and Dominic Lovett.
With that said, I would only feel comfortable betting the Over if it stays at 57.5 or lower. This is a matchup between star QBs, but both defenses are still among the most talented in the country.
Georgia vs Texas live odds
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